Response error and processing biases in confidence judgment

Previous studies showed that random error can explain overconfidence effects typically observed in the literature. One of these studies concluded that, after accounting for random error effects in the data, there is little support for cognitive‐processing biases in confidence elicitation. In this paper, we investigate more closely the random error explanation for overconfidence. We generated data from four models of confidence and then estimated the magnitude of random error in the data. Our results show that, in addition to the true magnitude of random error specified in the simulations, the error estimates are influenced by important cognitive‐processing biases in the confidence elicitation process. We found that random error in the response process can account for the degree of overconfidence found in calibration studies, even when that overconfidence is actually caused by other factors. Thus, the error models say little about whether cognitive biases are present in the confidence elicitation process. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Poverty, Patriotism, and National Covenant: Jonathan Edwards and Public Life

In this essay I address three ways in which Edwards can inform Christian understanding of public life. First I show how Edwards provides both philosophical and theological rationales for social engagement and thereby resists the separation of religion from public life, and use his consideration of poverty as an illustration. Part II examines Edwards's dialectical treatment of patriotism, demonstrating both its importance to the Christian life and its susceptibility to deceptive accommodation to culture. Finally, in Part III I discuss Edwards's use of "national covenant," which despite its temptation to chauvinism Edwards used to undermine national pride. In the conclusion I assess what we can use from Edwards for contemporary Christian understandings of public life.     

Rivals without a cause? Relative performance feedback creates destructive competition despite aligned incentives

Whether people compete or cooperate with each other has consequences for their own performance and that of organizations. To explain why people compete or cooperate, previous research has focused on two main factors: situational outcome structures and personality types. Here, we propose that—above and beyond these two factors—situational cues, such as the format in which people receive feedback, strongly affect whether they act competitively, cooperatively, or individualistically. Results of a laboratory experiment support our theorizing: After receiving ranking feedback, both students and experienced managers treated group situations with cooperative outcome structures as competitive and were in consequence willing to forgo guaranteed financial gains to pursue a—financially irrelevant—better rank. Conversely, in dilemma situations, feedback based on the joint group outcome led to more cooperation than ranking feedback. Our study contributes to research on competition, cooperation, interdependence theory, forced ranking, and the design of information environments.     

Genetics and adoption: Forming a partnership

Genetic issues are demanding more attention in the area of public health. Adoption agencies and policymakers are beginning to address these issues where they relate to the adoption process and to the many families involved in adoption in this country. Genetic counselors need to play an active role as both educators of and consultants for adoption professionals and the families with whom they work. To facilitate a partnership between genetics and adoption we have developed a workshop intended to educate adoption professionals about the lifelong implications of genetic conditions on the adoption triad.     

Millon Clinical Multiaxial Inventory (MCMI) computer-generated diagnoses: How do they compare to clinician judgment?

During the past several decades, computers have achieved increasing prominence in psychological assessment procedures. This is particularly true for computer-based test interpretation and diagnosis. This study reports on a study designed to compare the accuracy of computer-based diagnoses with clinician-generated diagnoses. The Millon Clinical Multiaxial Inventory (MCMI) was administered to 151 consecutively admitted inpatients at a large private psychiatric hospital. The computer-generated diagnoses were compared with those generated by admitting psychiatrists. The results indicated that the MCMI diagnostic impressions underestimated the severity of depressive disorders when compared with clinician diagnoses on Axis I. Specifically, clinicians diagnosed major depression much more frequently than did the MCMI. In addition, clinicians diagnosed anxiety disorders much less frequently than did the MCMI.     

INCREASING APPOINTMENT KEEPING BY REDUCING THE CALL-APPOINTMENT INTERVAL

We examined the effect of reducing the interval between a patient's call for an appointment and the appointment itself. In Experiment 1, patients calling a family planning unit of a public health department were assigned appointments within either 1 or 3 weeks of their call. Data on patient “shows” and “no-shows” were recorded weekly for 6 weeks. Show rates for those in the 1-week appointment group were significantly higher than those in the 3-week group. In Experiment 2, patients were assigned to appointment dates either the next operating clinic day (next-day group) or 2 weeks from the call date (2-week group). Show rates for those in the next-day group were significantly better than show rates for patients in the 2-week group. Clinic productivity, time spent with patients, and consumer satisfaction were also assessed. Implications for appointment scheduling are discussed.     

Evaluating public posting,goal setting,and rewards to increase physical activity in children

In this study, we evaluated several components of a pedometer-based intervention with children in an elementary-school-aged classroom, across 24-h sessions. The intervention included combinations of self-monitoring, goal setting, feedback, and reinforcement, and data were analyzed at both the classroom level (i.e., average daily step totals) and the individual level (i.e., daily step totals), across phases. The highest levels of physical activity were observed when components of self-monitoring, public posting, goal setting, and feedback with reward were applied concurrently.     

Effect of perceived public stigma on internalized homophobia,anticipated stigma,shame, and guilt: Outness as a moderator

Although previous studies found that distal minority stress contributes to proximal minority stress and shame/guilt among the lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) population, it is unclear whether the extent to which LGB individuals' open display and discussion their sexual orientation moderates these relationships. A total of 1,452 Chinese LGB adults provided demographic information and completed measures of outness, perceived public stigma, internalized homophobia, anticipated stigma, shame, and guilt. Structural equation modelling was conducted to test the hypothesized moderation analyses. Perceived public stigma had positive associations with internalized homophobia, anticipated stigma, shame, and guilt. Outness played a moderating role in the associations of perceived public stigma with internalized homophobia, anticipated stigma, shame, and guilt. Specifically, when LGB individuals had higher levels of outness, the effects of perceived public stigma on internalized homophobia, anticipated stigma, shame, and guilt were lower. Moreover, such moderating effect did not differ by sexual orientation. The degree to which sexual minority individuals' sexual orientation is known by and openly discussed with others may lower the extent to which LGB individuals internalize sexual stigma, expect rejection after coming out, and develop shame and guilt as a result of perceived social prejudice and discrimination.     

Behavioral extremity moderates the association between certainty in attitudes about COVID and willingness to engage in mitigation-related behaviors

People generally intend to act more on beliefs and attitudes about which they have greater certainty. However, we introduce a boundary condition to the positive association between certainty and behavioral intentions—behavioral extremity. Uncertainty about a threatening issue like COVID-19 can be disconcerting, and we propose that uncertain people cope in part through increased openness to extreme actions like accepting risky medical treatments and aggression toward those defying mitigation policies. Testing this, we compiled and analyzed all the data on certainty about COVID-19 mitigation policies and willingness to engage in mitigation-related behaviors that our lab collected during the pandemic (6 samples, 20 behaviors, Ns up to 1496). External ratings of the behaviors' extremity moderated certainty-willingness associations: whereas greater certainty was associated with increased willingness to engage in moderate behaviors (the typical result), lower certainty was associated with increased willingness to engage in extreme behaviors, especially among those worried about becoming ill.