Response error and processing biases in confidence judgment

Previous studies showed that random error can explain overconfidence effects typically observed in the literature. One of these studies concluded that, after accounting for random error effects in the data, there is little support for cognitive‐processing biases in confidence elicitation. In this paper, we investigate more closely the random error explanation for overconfidence. We generated data from four models of confidence and then estimated the magnitude of random error in the data. Our results show that, in addition to the true magnitude of random error specified in the simulations, the error estimates are influenced by important cognitive‐processing biases in the confidence elicitation process. We found that random error in the response process can account for the degree of overconfidence found in calibration studies, even when that overconfidence is actually caused by other factors. Thus, the error models say little about whether cognitive biases are present in the confidence elicitation process. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ordinal consistency and ordinal true scores

This paper argues that test data are ordinal, that latent trait scores are only determined ordinally, and that test data are used largely for ordinal purposes. Therefore it is desirable to develop a test theory based only on ordinal assumptions. A set of ordinal assumptions is presented, including an ordinal version of local independence. From these assumptions it is first shown that the gamma-correlation between two tests is the product of their gamma-correlations with the true latent order. The theory is generalized to allow for heterogeneous tests by defining a weighted average local independence. The tau-correlations between total score and the latent order can be found in both homogeneous and heterogeneous cases, and a system of differential item weighting to maximize the tau-correlation between weighted items and the latent order is provided. Thus a purely ordinal test theory seems possible.Part of this work was done while the author was a Visiting Fellow at Macquarrie University. The paper has benefitted from discussions with Professors Thomas J. Reynolds and Roderick P. McDonald and from the comments of several anonymous reviewers.     

Influential observations in principal factor analysis

We propose a method for detecting influential observations in iterative principal factor analysis. For this purpose we derive the influence functionsI(x; LL ^T ) andI(x; ) for the common variance matrixT =LL ^T and the unique variance matrix , respectively, in the common factor decomposition =LL ^T + . A numerical example is given for illustration.The authors are grateful to Tomoyuki Tarumi and Atsuhiro Hayashi for their kind permission to use their software Seto/B for drawing Figures 1 and 2 and to anonymous reviewers for comments on the paper.     

Sequential effects in dimensional contrast

Two experiments examined pigeons' response rates during short trials signaled by stimuli closely spaced along a wavelength continuum. In Experiment 1 separate halves of the continuum were correlated with different reinforcement schedules. In Experiment 2, the middle stimulus was accompanied by a lower probability of reinforcement than were the remaining wavelengths. Both procedures resulted in dimensional contrast “shoulders,” seen as relatively enhanced or depressed response rates in the presence of stimuli between the extreme of the continuum and the border separating the positive and negative stimuli. Sequential analyses addressed possible contributions of the following interactions: (a) local contrast, seen when rate during a given schedule depends on the schedule in the just-preceding trial; (b) modification of local contrast by the similarity of the signaling stimuli (P. Blough, 1983); and (c) schedule-independent rate contrast, seen when rate in a given trial depends on the rate controlled by the stimulus that accompanied the just-preceding trial (Malone & Rowe, 1981). Dimensional contrast functions were similar when isolated according to the schedule, to the similarity of the signaling stimulus, and to the response rate of the just-preceding trial. The interactions noted above do not appear to make important contributions to this effect.     

Millon Clinical Multiaxial Inventory (MCMI) computer-generated diagnoses: How do they compare to clinician judgment?

During the past several decades, computers have achieved increasing prominence in psychological assessment procedures. This is particularly true for computer-based test interpretation and diagnosis. This study reports on a study designed to compare the accuracy of computer-based diagnoses with clinician-generated diagnoses. The Millon Clinical Multiaxial Inventory (MCMI) was administered to 151 consecutively admitted inpatients at a large private psychiatric hospital. The computer-generated diagnoses were compared with those generated by admitting psychiatrists. The results indicated that the MCMI diagnostic impressions underestimated the severity of depressive disorders when compared with clinician diagnoses on Axis I. Specifically, clinicians diagnosed major depression much more frequently than did the MCMI. In addition, clinicians diagnosed anxiety disorders much less frequently than did the MCMI.     

A nonparametric approach for assessing latent trait unidimensionality

Assuming a nonparametric family of item response theory models, a theory-based procedure for testing the hypothesis of unidimensionality of the latent space is proposed. The asymptotic distribution of the test statistic is derived assuming unidimensionality, thereby establishing an asymptotically valid statistical test of the unidimensionality of the latent trait. Based upon a new notion of dimensionality, the test is shown to have asymptotic power 1. A 6300 trial Monte Carlo study using published item parameter estimates of widely used standardized tests indicates conservative adherence to the nominal level of significance and statistical power averaging 81 out of 100 rejections for examinee sample sizes and psychological test lengths often incurred in practice.The referees' comments were remarkably detailed and greatly enhanced the writeup and sensitized the author to certain pertinent issues. Discussions with Fritz Drasgow, Lloyd Humphreys, Dennis Jennings, Brian Junker, Robert Linn, Ratna Nandakumar, and Robin Shealy were also very useful.This research was supported by the Office of Naval Research under grant N00014-84-K-0186; NR 150-533, and by the National Science Foundation under grant DMS 85-03321.     

When celebrities talk,children listen: An experimental analysis of children's responses to TV ads with celebrity endorsement

Two studies tested the effects of TV ads with celebrity endorsement on the product preference and understanding of 8- to 14-year-old boys. Study 1 compared two ads for a model racer. One had celebrity endorsement (by a famous race driver) and footage of real automobile racing featuring the celebrity (live action); the second had neither feature. Study 2 employed one ad for a different brand of model racer edited to generate a 2 (endorser presence) by 2 (inclusion of live racetrack action) factorial design. A total of 415 boys were exposed to one of the experimental ads or a control ad, embedded in a new animated children's adventure program. Preference for the advertised brand of model racer (pre- and postviewing) and a number of cognitive variables were assessed. Exposure to endorsement led to increased preference for the toy and belief that the celebrity was expert about the toy. Live action led to exaggerated estimates of the physical properties of the toy and the belief that the ad was not staged. The 8- to 10-year-olds associated the glamour of the endorser with the toy and were more reliant on his advice than were 11- to 14-year-olds. However, the two age groups were not differentially affected by the ads. Contrary to the speculation of many researchers, understanding about advertising intent and techniques and cynicism about ads had almost no influence on product preference after viewing.     

Transfer effects from language processing to visual attention dynamics: The impact of orthographic transparency

The consistency between letters and sounds varies across languages. These differences have been proposed to be associated with different reading mechanisms (lexical vs. phonological), processing grain sizes (coarse vs. fine) and attentional windows (whole words vs. individual letters). This study aimed to extend this idea to writing to dictation. For that purpose, we evaluated whether the use of different types of processing has a differential impact on local windowing attention: phonological (local) processing in a transparent language (Spanish) and lexical (global) processing of an opaque language (English). Spanish and English monolinguals (Experiment 1) and Spanish–English bilinguals (Experiment 2) performed a writing to dictation task followed by a global–local task. The first key performance showed a critical dissociation between languages: the response times (RTs) from the Spanish writing to dictation task was modulated by word length, whereas the RTs from the English writing to dictation task was modulated by word frequency and age of acquisition, as evidence that language transparency biases processing towards phonological or lexical strategies. In addition, after a Spanish task, participants more efficiently processed local information, which resulted in both the benefit of global congruent information and the reduced cost of incongruent global information. Additionally, the results showed that bilinguals adapt their attentional processing depending on the orthographic transparency.     

孟子的心理学思想研究

该文较系统地论述了孟子的普通心理思想。主要问题是:心理学思想的基本观点,知虑心理思想,情欲心理思想,志意心理思想,智能心理思想,性习心理思想。     

An evaluation of the reliability of probability judgments across response modes and over time

Despite the importance of probability assessment methods in behavioral decision theory and decision analysis, little attention has been directed at evaluating their reliability and validity. In fact, no comprehensive study of reliability has been undertaken. Since reliability is a necessary condition for validity, this oversight is significant. The present study was motivated by that oversight. We investigated the reliability of probability measures derived from three response modes: numerical probabilities, pie diagrams, and odds. Unlike previous studies, the experiment was designed to distinguish systematic deviations in probability judgments, such as those due to experience or practice, from random deviations. It was found that subjects assessed probabilities reliably for all three assessment methods regardless of the reliability measures employed. However, a small but statistically significant decrease over time in the magnitudes of assessed probabilities was observed. This effect was linked to a decrease in subjects overconfidence during the course of the experiment.