All's well that ends well? Outcome bias in pilots during instrument flight rules

The objective of the present study was to examine if the Outcome Bias also occurs in pilots flying under instrument flight rules (IFR). In a scenario-based survey, 60 pilots evaluated weather-related decisions made by hypothetical pilots. Participants rated the decisions as better, less risky, and regarded the probability that they would have made the same decision as higher when they were followed by a positive outcome, than when they were followed by a negative outcome. This effect showed likewise for novice pilots and for experienced pilots. These findings could be relevant for the flight-related decision-making of pilots, which sometimes is affected by the decisions made by third-party pilots. In particular, decisions made by other pilots that have led to positive outcomes might be hastily followed, whereas those that have led to negative outcomes might be hastily rejected.     

不同情境中幼儿情绪表达规则认知发展的追踪研究

用追踪研究方法,对60名幼儿在高兴、惊讶与害怕情境中的情绪表达规则认知两年的发展进行探讨,并考察情绪情境、性别和人际背景对其发展的影响。结果表明：(1)幼儿的情绪表达规则知识、目标和策略水平均随年龄增长显著提升;(2)幼儿在害怕情境中为自我保护而较多使用掩饰策略,在惊讶情境中较多使用掩饰和夸大策略,在高兴情境中综合运用掩饰、弱化和夸大策略;(3)性别和人际背景均对幼儿情绪表达规则认知发展有显著影响。     

De Re Language,De Re Eliminability,and the Essential Limits of Both

De re modality is eliminable if there is an effective translation of all wffs into non-de re equivalents. We cannot have logical equivalence unless logic has odd theses, but we can have material equivalence by banning all essences, something the non-de re facts let us do, or by giving everything such humdrum essences as self-identity and banning the more interesting ones. Eliminability cannot be got from weaker assumptions, nor independent ones of even modest generality. The net philosophical import is that, quite apart from the merits of essentialism, de re language has scant utility.     

A compensatory approach to optimal selection with mastery scores

A Bayesian approach for simultaneous optimization of test-based decisions is presented using the example of a selection decision for a treatment followed by a mastery decision. A distinction is made between weak and strong rules where, as opposed to strong rules, weak rules use prior test scores as collateral data. Conditions for monotonicity of optimal weak and strong rules are presented. It is shown that under mild conditions on the test score distributions and utility functions, weak rules are always compensatory by nature. The authors are indebted to Wilbert Kallenberg for his valuable comments and to Jan Gulmans for providing the data for the empirical example. The names of the authors are alphabetical; they are equally responsible for the contents of this paper.     

The application of the satir model of family therapy to the families in Hong Kong: A personal reflection

Practitioners in Hong Kong have shown an increasing interest in various family therapy approaches since the 1980s. This paper offers a critique of the major concepts and techniques of the Satir model applied to families in Hong Kong. Cultural considerations are examined in relation to the family structure and hierarchy, the Chinese self and self-esteem, communication patterns, and family rules. Implications for the application of the Satir model of family therapy in Hong Kong are discussed.     

Elimination of reinforced behavior: intermittent schedules of not-responding

Pigeons' key pecking resulted in food according to either a variable-ratio or a variable-interval schedule. At the same time, food was available for not pecking for a specified time. The required time of not-pecking was segmented into not-responding units, and these units were followed by food according to a fixed-ratio schedule. Both unit duration and the number required were varied. In general, the shorter the time unit or the smaller the ratio, the lower was response rate. When total required not-responding time was constant, but changes in unit duration and the number required altered how the total was achieved, shorter units produced lower rates. Other conditions involved substitution of food delivered independent of responding for the not-responding schedule. With low and moderate total times to food presentation, the not-responding schedule produced lower rates; with the longest times, the response-independent schedule generated less responding. When considered in terms of relative frequency of food presentation available from a source other than pecking, the not-responding schedule reduced rate more effectively than did the response-independent schedule. Comparisons with other research suggested that food presented dependent on not responding compared favorably with punishment as a procedure for reducing response rate. Transient effects differed. Although punishment temporarily depresses rate when first imposed and temporarily enhances it when first removed, food given for not responding quickly generated steady-state rates.     

Positive reinforcement and the elimination of reinforced responses

Key pecking was maintained on a fixed-interval schedule while either a differential-reinforcement-of-not-responding or a fixed-time schedule was imposed simultaneously. The lower the time parameter of the not-responding schedule, the lower was the response rate. Similar effects occurred with the fixed-time schedule, if the pigeons had experience with reinforcement for not responding. Otherwise the effects were less orderly, to the extent that rate could reach maximum with the lowest-valued fixed-time schedule. The not-responding and the response-independent schedules had similar effects on rate in experienced pigeons only when the time parameter or nominal frequency of food presentation was considered. When considered in terms of obtained frequency of food presentation, reinforcement of not responding produced larger decrements in rate than did the fixed-time schedule.     

Autonomous vehicle safety: Understanding perceptions of pedestrians and bicyclists

Autonomous vehicle (AV) technologies have been rapidly advancing. One benefit of AVs is that the technology could eliminate many driver errors and also mitigate many pedestrian and bicyclist collisions. Real-world AVs have been tested in many cities. Five companies are running around 50 AVs in Pittsburgh, following the autonomous testing guidelines. BikePGH, a non-profit organization located in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania conducted a follow-up survey in 2019 (the first survey was conducted in 2017) to understand non-motorists’ opinions of AVs. This study examined how pedestrians and bicyclists perceived AV safety based on their understanding and experiences. At first, this study performed a comparison group test to determine which questions vary by participants’ AV safety rating. The responses were later analyzed with a data mining method known as ‘association rules mining.’ A new performance measure, known as the rule power factor, was then used to identify the significant patterns in the form of rules. The participants also provided their thoughts in responses to the open-ended questions. Using Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), a topic modeling algorithm, 40 topic models were developed based on five open-ended questions. The findings show that the non-motorists showed comparatively fewer negative opinions towards AVs than positive assessments. The results also show that perception patterns vary by the participant’s rating on AV safety. Findings of this study would be beneficial for the AV stakeholders in making AVs and roadways safer for non-motorists.     

The utility of ground rule instructions with younger and older adult witnesses

This study examined the effectiveness of ground rules—simple instructions outlining the communication expectations of an investigative interview—with 73 younger (age 18–40) and 57 older (age 60+) adults. Participants watched a film depicting an implied sexual assault and were interviewed after a brief delay. One third received no ground rules, one third received ground rules as statements, and one third received the statements along with practice examples. The interview contained questions that required participants to apply one of the rules. Those who received ground rules were asked their perceptions of the rules. Results demonstrated that practicing ground rules improved response quality to problematic recognition questions, younger adults showed more variability in responses to different ground rules than older adults, and most participants found ground rule instructions useful in investigative interviews. Results provide support for the use of ground rules in interviews with adult witnesses.