Testing autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation: Asymptotic methods versus resampling techniques

Autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation, which provide a mathematical tool to understand repeating patterns in time series data, are often used to facilitate the identification of model orders of time series models (e.g., moving average and autoregressive models). Asymptotic methods for testing autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation such as the 1/T approximation method and the Bartlett's formula method may fail in finite samples and are vulnerable to non-normality. Resampling techniques such as the moving block bootstrap and the surrogate data method are competitive alternatives. In this study, we use a Monte Carlo simulation study and a real data example to compare asymptotic methods with the aforementioned resampling techniques. For each resampling technique, we consider both the percentile method and the bias-corrected and accelerated method for interval construction. Simulation results show that the surrogate data method with percentile intervals yields better performance than the other methods. An R package pautocorr is used to carry out tests evaluated in this study.     

Modeling Interactions Between Latent Variables in Research on Type D Personality: A Monte Carlo Simulation and Clinical Study of Depression and Anxiety

Several approaches exist to model interactions between latent variables. However, it is unclear how these perform when item scores are skewed and ordinal. Research on Type D personality serves as a good case study for that matter. In Study 1, we fitted a multivariate interaction model to predict depression and anxiety with Type D personality, operationalized as an interaction between its two subcomponents negative affectivity (NA) and social inhibition (SI). We constructed this interaction according to four approaches: (1) sum score product; (2) single product indicator; (3) matched product indicators; and (4) latent moderated structural equations (LMS). In Study 2, we compared these interaction models in a simulation study by assessing for each method the bias and precision of the estimated interaction effect under varying conditions. In Study 1, all methods showed a significant Type D effect on both depression and anxiety, although this effect diminished after including the NA and SI quadratic effects. Study 2 showed that the LMS approach performed best with respect to minimizing bias and maximizing power, even when item scores were ordinal and skewed. However, when latent traits were skewed LMS resulted in more false-positive conclusions, while the Matched PI approach adequately controlled the false-positive rate.     

Conditional Direction Dependence Analysis: Evaluating the Causal Direction of Effects in Linear Models with Interaction Terms

Abstract

Direction dependence analysis (DDA) makes use of higher than second moment information of variables (x and y) to detect potential confounding and to probe the causal direction of linear variable relations (i.e., whether x?→?y or y?→?x better approximates the underlying causal mechanism). The “true” predictor is assumed to be a continuous nonnormal exogenous variable. Existing methods compatible with DDA, however, are of limited use when the relation of a focal predictor and an outcome is affected by a moderator. This study presents a conditional direction dependence analysis (CDDA) framework which enables researchers to evaluate the causal direction of conditional regression effects. Monte–Carlo simulations were used to evaluate two different moderation scenarios: Study 1 evaluates the performance of CDDA tests when a moderator affects the strength of the causal effect x?→?y. Study 2 evaluates cases in which the causal direction itself (x?→?y vs y?→?x) depends on moderator values. Study 3 evaluates the robustness of DDA tests in the presence of functional model misspecifications. Results suggest that significance tests compatible with CDDA are suitable in both moderation scenarios, i.e., CDDA allows one to discern regions of a moderator in which the causal direction is uniquely identifiable. An empirical example is provided to illustrate the approach.     

Asymptotic clarifications,generalizations, and concerns regarding an extended class of matched pairs tests based on powers of ranks

Recent studies pertaining to an extended class of matched pairs tests based on powers of ranks are discussed. Previous questions regarding the asymptotic properties for this class of tests are clarified and a generalization of this class is described. This generalization raises a previously unanticipated concern about whether or not the analytic comparisons resulting from these tests correspond with an intuitive notion of what is being compared.     

Quadratic prediction of factor scores

Factor scores are naturally predicted by means of their conditional expectation given the indicatorsy. Under normality this expectation is linear iny but in general it is an unknown function ofy. It is discussed that under nonnormality factor scores can be more precisely predicted by a quadratic function ofy.The authors would like to thank Edith Nijenhuis, the anonymous referees, and the associate editor for their helpful comments and suggestions.     

Factor analysis for non-normal variables

Factor analysis for nonnormally distributed variables is discussed in this paper. The main difference between our approach and more traditional approaches is that not only second order cross-products (like covariances) are utilized, but also higher order cross-products. It turns out that under some conditions the parameters (factor loadings) can be uniquely determined. Two estimation procedures will be discussed. One method gives Best Generalized Least Squares (BGLS) estimates, but is computationally very heavy, in particular for large data sets. The other method is a least squares method which is computationally less heavy. In one example the two methods will be compared by using the bootstrap method. In another example real life data are analyzed.This paper has partly been written while the author was a visiting scholar at the Department of Psychology, University of California, Los Angeles. He wants to thank Peter Bentler who made this stay at UCLA possible and for his valuable contributions to this paper. This research was supported by the Netherlands Organization for the Advancement of Pure Research (Z.W.O) under number R56-150 and by USPHS Grant DA01070.     

A scaled difference chi-square test statistic for moment structure analysis

A family of scaling corrections aimed to improve the chi-square approximation of goodness-of-fit test statistics in small samples, large models, and nonnormal data was proposed in Satorra and Bentler (1994). For structural equations models, Satorra-Bentler's (SB) scaling corrections are available in standard computer software. Often, however, the interest is not on the overall fit of a model, but on a test of the restrictions that a null model sayM ₀ implies on a less restricted oneM ₁. IfT ₀ andT ₁ denote the goodness-of-fit test statistics associated toM ₀ andM ₁, respectively, then typically the differenceT _d =T ₀−T ₁ is used as a chi-square test statistic with degrees of freedom equal to the difference on the number of independent parameters estimated under the modelsM ₀ andM ₁. As in the case of the goodness-of-fit test, it is of interest to scale the statisticT _d in order to improve its chi-square approximation in realistic, that is, nonasymptotic and nonormal, applications. In a recent paper, Satorra (2000) shows that the difference between two SB scaled test statistics for overall model fit does not yield the correct SB scaled difference test statistic. Satorra developed an expression that permits scaling the difference test statistic, but his formula has some practical limitations, since it requires heavy computations that are not available in standard computer software. The purpose of the present paper is to provide an easy way to compute the scaled difference chi-square statistic from the scaled goodness-of-fit test statistics of modelsM ₀ andM ₁. A Monte Carlo study is provided to illustrate the performance of the competing statistics. This research was supported by the Spanish grants PB96-0300 and BEC2000-0983, and USPHS grants DA00017 and DA01070.     

Simulating correlated multivariate nonnormal distributions: Extending the fleishman power method

A procedure for generating multivariate nonnormal distributions is proposed. Our procedure generates average values of intercorrelations much closer to population parameters than competing procedures for skewed and/or heavy tailed distributions and for small sample sizes. Also, it eliminates the necessity of conducting a factorization procedure on the population correlation matrix that underlies the random deviates, and it is simpler to code in a programming language (e.g., FORTRAN). Numerical examples demonstrating the procedures are given. Monte Carlo results indicate our procedure yields excellent agreement between population parameters and average values of intercorrelation, skew, and kurtosis.     

Heteroscedasticity as a Basis of Direction Dependence in Reversible Linear Regression Models

Heteroscedasticity is a well-known issue in linear regression modeling. When heteroscedasticity is observed, researchers are advised to remedy possible model misspecification of the explanatory part of the model (e.g., considering alternative functional forms and/or omitted variables). The present contribution discusses another source of heteroscedasticity in observational data: Directional model misspecifications in the case of nonnormal variables. Directional misspecification refers to situations where alternative models are equally likely to explain the data-generating process (e.g., x → y versus y → x). It is shown that the homoscedasticity assumption is likely to be violated in models that erroneously treat true nonnormal predictors as response variables. Recently, Direction Dependence Analysis (DDA) has been proposed as a framework to empirically evaluate the direction of effects in linear models. The present study links the phenomenon of heteroscedasticity with DDA and describes visual diagnostics and nine homoscedasticity tests that can be used to make decisions concerning the direction of effects in linear models. Results of a Monte Carlo simulation that demonstrate the adequacy of the approach are presented. An empirical example is provided, and applicability of the methodology in cases of violated assumptions is discussed.     

Empirically Corrected Rescaled Statistics for SEM with Small N and Large p

Survey data often contain many variables. Structural equation modeling (SEM) is commonly used in analyzing such data. With typical nonnormally distributed data in practice, a rescaled statistic T_rml proposed by Satorra and Bentler was recommended in the literature of SEM. However, T_rml has been shown to be problematic when the sample size N is small and/or the number of variables p is large. There does not exist a reliable test statistic for SEM with small N or large p, especially with nonnormally distributed data. Following the principle of Bartlett correction, this article develops empirical corrections to T_rml so that the mean of the empirically corrected statistics approximately equals the degrees of freedom of the nominal chi-square distribution. Results show that empirically corrected statistics control type I errors reasonably well even when N is smaller than 2p, where T_rml may reject the correct model 100% even for normally distributed data. The application of the empirically corrected statistics is illustrated via a real data example.