Psychometric Modeling of response speed and accuracy with mixed and conditional regression

Human performance in cognitive testing and experimental psychology is expressed in terms of response speed and accuracy. Data analysis is often limited to either speed or accuracy, and/or to crude summary measures like mean response time (RT) or the percentage correct responses. This paper proposes the use of mixed regression for the psychometric modeling of response speed and accuracy in testing and experiments. Mixed logistic regression of response accuracy extends logistic item response theory modeling to multidimensional models with covariates and interactions. Mixed linear regression of response time extends mixed ANOVA to unbalanced designs with covariates and heterogeneity of variance. Related to mixed regression is conditional regression, which requires no normality assumption, but is limited to unidimensional models. Mixed and conditional methods are both applied to an experimental study of mental rotation. Univariate and bivariate analyzes show how within-subject correlation between response and RT can be distinguished from between-subject correlation, and how latent traits can be detected, given careful item design or content analysis. It is concluded that both response and RT must be recorded in cognitive testing, and that mixed regression is a versatile method for analyzing test data.I am grateful to Rogier Donders for putting his data at my disposal.     

论创造阈

创造阈是人观念地把握了的某一文化领域的现状与所期望的目的之间的、处在意识领域边缘的、具体实现创造思维的心理区域 ,是人通过长期的学习、积累和广阔自由的思维探索 ,特别是通过比较、质疑、直觉思维而建构起来的一个心理区域。问题、概念、论题、纲要、要求、意念等是创造阈的具体存在形态     

Is Parental Knowledge of their Adolescent Offspring’s Whereabouts and Peer Associations Spuriously Associated with Offspring Delinquency?

Recent studies suggest that most of what parents know about their adolescent offspring's whereabouts and companions is the result of youth disclosure, rather than information gained through active parental monitoring. This raises the possibility that parental knowledge is spuriously correlated with youth delinquency solely because the most delinquent youth disclose the least information to parents (because they have the most to hide). We tested this spurious association hypothesis using prospective data on offspring of a nationally representative sample of US women, controlling demographic and contextual covariates. In separate analyses, greater parental knowledge of their offspring's peer associations at both 12-13 years and at 14-15 years was associated with lower odds of being in the top 1 standard deviation of youth-reported delinquency at 16-17 years, controlling for delinquency at the earlier ages. The extent to which parents set limits on activities with peers at 14-15 years did not mediate or moderate the association between parental knowledge and delinquency, but it did independently predict future delinquency among adolescents living in high-risk neighborhoods. This suggests that the association between parental knowledge and future delinquency is not solely spurious; rather parental knowledge and limit setting are both meaningful predictors of future delinquency.     

临床决策与疾病发展的“度”

临床决策是十分复杂的专业劳动,良好而科学的临床决策取决于众多因素,包括医师的临床经验、知识水平、医师的爱心与责任心、患者病情的复杂性、医疗水平与条件、患者及家属的条件与配合程度等等,辩证法的“度”在临床的良好应用会帮助医师准确地把握病情,给予更加适度治疗;真正的个体化临床决策必须由医师与患者及家属的密切配合才能实现。     

Using a multi-user driving simulator system to explore the patterns of vehicle fleet rear-end collisions occurrence under different foggy conditions and speed limits

Vehicle fleet rear-end collisions (FRECs) are an extremely fatal type of traffic collisions on freeway and they usually occur in foggy weather. This study aimed to explore the patterns of vehicle fleet rear-end collisions occurrence under different foggy conditions and speed limits on freeway. A multi-user driving simulator system was used to conduct the experiment and the driving behavior data were collected from eight participants. The experimental results showed that as the fog density increased, the length of vehicle fleet decreased significantly, and drivers tended to keep a more stable car-following distance. The fog weather and short vehicle gap prompted drivers to react faster and brake harder in respond to the leading vehicle’s brake. In spite of the compensational behaviors, more FRECs were observed under heavy fog condition. Lowering speed limit can significantly reduce the FRECs under foggy conditions. As the speed limits reduced, drivers’ brake response time and speed variance significantly reduced. The study also found that drivers’ brake response time was negatively correlated with their positions in the fleet. Drivers in the front positions of the fleet had a longer response time than drivers in the back positions and thus were more likely to encounter collisions. The study generated a better understanding of drivers’ behavioral pattern in a vehicle fleet and the patterns of vehicle fleet rear-end collisions occurrence. The findings also shed lights on the design of driver assistance system for complex driving situations such as freeway driving under adverse weather.     

Naturalism Need Not Be "Made Safe": A Response to William Rottschaefer's Misunderstandings

In this article, I respond to William Rottschaefer's analysis of my writings on religion and science, especially my Religion, Science and Naturalism (1996). I show that I am not trying "to make naturalism safe," as Rottschaefer contends, but rather attempting to explore options available when one endorses naturalistic approaches. I also explain why I object to the label "supernaturalistic naturalism" used by Rottschaefer. Possible limitations to naturalistic projects are discussed, not as limitations imposed but rather as features uncovered.     

Discerning the Limits of Religious Naturalism

In response to my "How to Make Naturalism Safe for Supernaturalism: An Evaluation of Willem Drees's Supernaturalistic Naturalism" (Rottschaefer 2001), Willem Drees maintains that I have misunderstood his purpose and views and have failed to make the case against his view that naturalism is intrinsically limited. In this response, I comment on these concerns.     

‘Ideal learning’ of natural language: Positive results about learning from positive evidence

Gold's [1967. Language identification in the limit. Information and Control, 16, 447-474] celebrated work on learning in the limit has been taken, by many cognitive scientists, to have powerful negative implications for the learnability of language from positive data (i.e., from mere exposure to linguistic input). This provides one, of several, lines of argument that language acquisition must draw on other sources of information, including innate constraints on learning. We consider an ‘ideal learner’ that applies a Simplicity Principle to the problem of language acquisition. The Simplicity Principle chooses the hypothesis that provides the briefest representation of the available data—here, the data are the linguistic input to the child. The Simplicity Principle allows learning from positive evidence alone, given quite weak assumptions, in apparent contrast to results on language learnability in the limit (e.g., Gold, 1967). These results provide a framework for reconsidering the learnability of various aspects of natural language from positive evidence, which has been at the center of theoretical debate in research on language acquisition and linguistics.     

On Wittgenstein's Kantian solution of the problem of philosophy

In 1931 Wittgenstein wrote: ‘the limit of language manifests itself in the impossibility of describing the fact that corresponds to (is the translation of) a sentence without simply repeating the sentence’. Here, Wittgenstein claims, ‘we are involved?…?with the Kantian solution of the problem of philosophy’. This paper shows how this remark fits with Wittgenstein's early account of the substance of the world, his account of logic, and ultimately his view of philosophy. By contrast to the currently influential resolute reading of the Tractatus, the paper argues that the early Wittgenstein did not aim at destroying the idea of a limit of language, but that the notion lies at the very heart of Wittgenstein's early view. In doing so, the paper employs and defends the Kantian interpretation of Wittgenstein's early philosophy.     

An eye-tracking study of the effects of dimensions of speed limit traffic signs on a mountain highway on driverś perception

Signs control and regulate traffic, anticipating potential dangers, prescribing correct behaviors, and disambiguating likely conflicts in priority. In Brazil, traffic accidents on highways located in mountain rural areas are mainly related to the design of roads and speeding, rather than to the impact of traffic flow. Since drivers highly depend on their visual perceptions for adopting driving behaviors, this study analyzes driver perception during a trip and the response of this parameter to changes in the diameter of vertical speed limit signs in a driver simulator equipped with an eye-tracking system. The objective was to investigate whether an increase in the plate size would enhance driver perception and influence drivers’ compliance with speed limits. Fifty-five volunteers were asked to drive twice on a 10-km mountain route, after which one of the diameters, namely 75, 100, 120, and 150 cm, used according to several Brazilian and American standards, was randomly chosen. The results showed the size of the traffic signs did not affect dependent variables number of fixations, percentage of perceived signals, time of observation, perception distance, and non-compliance with the speed limit. The most significant result was the relationship between speed variability and guided round, since the driver’s performance was improved with the distance along the studied stretch. The outcomes can be useful for the development of strategies that manage speeding on roads by improving and implementing low-cost interventions in low-income countries.