An availability bias in professional judgment

When branches of a fault tree are pruned, subjects do not fully transfer the probability of those branches to the ‘all other’ category. This underestimation of the catch-all probability has been interpreted as an ‘out of sight, out of mind’ form of the availability bias. The present work replicates this underestimation bias with professional managers. It then demonstrates the effectiveness of a corrective tactic, extending the tree by generating additional causes, and also reveals that more easily retrieved short-term causes dominate the generation process. These results do not differ across managers' culture, education or experience. After evaluating such alternative explanations as category redefinition, we conclude that availability is a major cause, though possibly not the sole cause, of the underestimation bias.     

Effects of diagnostic classification systems on clinical hypothesis-generation

In this study it was determined whether (a) classification as opposed to absence of classification has an effect on the quality of clinical hypotheses (b) the DSM-III-R and the CBCL have a different effect on the quality of clinical hypotheses, and (c) the potential difference between the DSM-III-R and the CBCL is moderated by the different number of syndromes identified by these systems. To investigate these questions, an experiment was conducted in which 86 clinicians generated hypotheses for six cases. The clinicians were divided into a DSM-III-R, a CBCL, and a control group. Of the six cases, two were classified by both classification systems as one syndrome, two were classified as one syndrome by the DSM-III-R but as two syndromes by the CBCL, and two were classified as two syndromes by the DSM-III-R but as one syndrome by the CBCL. The quality of the hypotheses was determined by means of four dependent variables selected from an overview of qualitative criteria: explanatory value, redundancy, possibility of operationalization, and specificity. No differences between the CBCL and the control groups were found. The DSM group performed better than the control group regarding explanatory value and redundancy. The DSM-III-R group also scored better than the CBCL group regarding explanatory value, particularly when the number of identified syndromes was two for the CBCL and one for the DSM-III-R.     

An information - expectation framework for decisions under uncertainty

Despite being in existence for many decades, normative decision theory has not become a commonly used tool for real-world decisions. This paper considers the reasons for this situation and suggestions for circumventing them. The main suggestion involves a two-stage framework in terms of the information available to the decision maker and his/her expectations under the available acts. This framework is well suited for decisions with incomplete structure, which is typical of real decision situations. Within this framework a specific multiplicative model is also discussed.     

Negative cognitive style and looming cognitive style synergistically predict stress generation

There is a growing body of evidence that suggests that cognitive vulnerabilities to depression or anxiety may lead individuals to generate negative interpersonal life events. However, there has been no study to date that examines the effects of co-occurring vulnerabilities to depression and anxiety. In a sample of 304 participants, we examined the potential interaction of co-occurring negative cognitive style, a vulnerability to depression and looming cognitive style, vulnerability to anxiety. Results indicate that co-occurring cognitive vulnerabilities synergistically predict higher levels of negative interpersonal life events six weeks later, even when controlling for initial levels of stressful life events and symptoms of depression and anxiety. Thus, co-occurring vulnerabilities may have stronger stress generating effects than would be expected from the additive effects of each vulnerability considered separately. This finding highlights the importance of examining cognitive vulnerabilities as interactive effects rather than as individual vulnerabilities.     

Vulnerability-specific stress generation: an examination of depressogenic cognitive vulnerability across multiple domains

Background and Objectives: Although there is supporting evidence for the stress generation hypothesis (i.e., the tendency for depression-prone individuals to experience more negative dependent events influenced by their behaviors and characteristics), additional research is required to advance current understanding of the specific types of dependent events relevant to this effect. The present study elaborated on the stress generation hypothesis, in which the content of negative dependent events experienced by individuals is contingent upon, and matches, the nature of their particular vulnerabilities. This extension was tested within the context of Cole's competency-based model of depression. Design: Participants (n = 185) were assessed at two time-points separated by a four-month interval. Methods: Self-perceived competence in academic, social, and appearance domains at the initial time-point were examined in relation to negative life events prospectively occurring over the four-month follow-up period, assessed using the “contextual threat” method. Results: Partial support was obtained for vulnerability-specific stress generation. Stress-generation specificity was found for self-perceived competence in appearance and academic domains, but not for self-perceived social competence. Conclusions: The current findings are consistent with the possibility of a more complex relation between self-perceived social competence and domain-congruent stress generation. Individuals may be more likely to experience negative dependent events in domains matching their specific vulnerabilities.     

Automatic question generation and answer assessment for subjective examination

Automatic generation of questions and evaluating their answers is a highly challenging task in natural language processing and educational technology. This work focuses on generating subjective questions and also an evaluation system is suggested for assessing the answers. For generating the questionnaires, key-phrases are extracted from the course curriculum (syllabus). Next, based on the key-phrases, different types of subjective questions are generated. Finally, the evaluation of student’s responses is achieved using a multi-criteria-decision-making approach. It uses a set of model answers taken from different textbooks and subject experts to evaluate the answers. Multiple measures are used to assess the answers by comparing them with this model set. The results of the profound system reveal that the automated appraisal process can reduce the manual effort of the human.     

神仙迷雾中的科学颗粒--中国传统炼丹术面面观

中国传统炼丹术虽因目标的虚幻早已退出历史舞台,但拨开炼丹术的神仙迷雾,在炼丹术的理论与实践中也包含着诸多值得总结思考的内容。在荒谬的追求中,神仙意志支配下的炼丹活动客观上产生了一些有价值的副产品。从“炼丹所依据的正确哲学和科学命题”,“在正确前提指导下的炼丹术如何最终走向谬误”、“在歪曲和虚妄中又何以能取得客观的科学成果”等问题展开分析论证,既肯定了古代炼丹家通过人工变革自然的主动探求精神,也揭示了其中错误的原因。     

临床医学整合：中心化整合关键在于观念转变

医学转型的实质是推进医学的整合,微观层面以临床医学的整合为核心部分,宏观上则以临床医学与预防医学的整合为核心。在诸多整合之中,以临床医学的整合最为迫切,它是整个医学整合过程中的基础和开端。当前进行的临床中心化整合似乎已成为一种主导的趋势,然而,如何进行中心化整合却仍然存在诸多问题需要探讨,某些医院对专科化的热衷和偏爱更令人担忧,医学资本的诱惑也是当今临床整合的一道障碍,因此,医学整合任重而道远,不仅需要医学形式上的重组,更需要有观念上的根本转变。