An availability bias in professional judgment

When branches of a fault tree are pruned, subjects do not fully transfer the probability of those branches to the ‘all other’ category. This underestimation of the catch-all probability has been interpreted as an ‘out of sight, out of mind’ form of the availability bias. The present work replicates this underestimation bias with professional managers. It then demonstrates the effectiveness of a corrective tactic, extending the tree by generating additional causes, and also reveals that more easily retrieved short-term causes dominate the generation process. These results do not differ across managers' culture, education or experience. After evaluating such alternative explanations as category redefinition, we conclude that availability is a major cause, though possibly not the sole cause, of the underestimation bias.     

Effects of diagnostic classification systems on clinical hypothesis-generation

In this study it was determined whether (a) classification as opposed to absence of classification has an effect on the quality of clinical hypotheses (b) the DSM-III-R and the CBCL have a different effect on the quality of clinical hypotheses, and (c) the potential difference between the DSM-III-R and the CBCL is moderated by the different number of syndromes identified by these systems. To investigate these questions, an experiment was conducted in which 86 clinicians generated hypotheses for six cases. The clinicians were divided into a DSM-III-R, a CBCL, and a control group. Of the six cases, two were classified by both classification systems as one syndrome, two were classified as one syndrome by the DSM-III-R but as two syndromes by the CBCL, and two were classified as two syndromes by the DSM-III-R but as one syndrome by the CBCL. The quality of the hypotheses was determined by means of four dependent variables selected from an overview of qualitative criteria: explanatory value, redundancy, possibility of operationalization, and specificity. No differences between the CBCL and the control groups were found. The DSM group performed better than the control group regarding explanatory value and redundancy. The DSM-III-R group also scored better than the CBCL group regarding explanatory value, particularly when the number of identified syndromes was two for the CBCL and one for the DSM-III-R.     

An information - expectation framework for decisions under uncertainty

Despite being in existence for many decades, normative decision theory has not become a commonly used tool for real-world decisions. This paper considers the reasons for this situation and suggestions for circumventing them. The main suggestion involves a two-stage framework in terms of the information available to the decision maker and his/her expectations under the available acts. This framework is well suited for decisions with incomplete structure, which is typical of real decision situations. Within this framework a specific multiplicative model is also discussed.     

味觉对判断与决策的影响及其机制

味觉作为人类生存必不可少的感觉之一, 早已超越“舌尖”的直接感受, 潜在地影响了个体对人际关系及伦理道德的知觉与判断, 改变着个体对冒险与消费等行为的决策。情绪中介假说、具身隐喻假说、进化假说以及社会建构假说从不同视角试图阐明味觉对判断与决策的影响机制。当前研究存在味觉感受存在个体差异、味觉测量难以保证效度、味觉实验缺乏统一研究范式等问题, 未来可继续进行味觉隐喻的验证并将其应用于感官营销、心理治疗等领域, 从生理、心理及社会等多个层面出发, 全方位探讨味觉对判断、决策的影响及其机制。     

Confirmation of Scientific Hypotheses as Relations

Summary  In spite of several attempts to explicate the relationship between a scientific hypothesis and evidence, the issue still cries for a satisfactory solution. Logical approaches to confirmation, such as the hypothetico-deductive method and the positive instance account of confirmation, are problematic because of their neglect of the semantic dimension of hypothesis confirmation. Probabilistic accounts of confirmation are no better than logical approaches in this regard. An outstanding probabilistic account of confirmation, the Bayesian approach, for instance, is found to be defective in that it treats evidence as a formal entity and this creates the problem of relevance of evidence to the hypothesis at issue, in addition to the difficulties arising from the subjective interpretation of probabilities. This essay purports to satisfy the need for a successful account of hypothesis confirmation by offering an original formulation based on the notion of instantiation of the relation urged by an hypothesis.     

Negative cognitive style and looming cognitive style synergistically predict stress generation

There is a growing body of evidence that suggests that cognitive vulnerabilities to depression or anxiety may lead individuals to generate negative interpersonal life events. However, there has been no study to date that examines the effects of co-occurring vulnerabilities to depression and anxiety. In a sample of 304 participants, we examined the potential interaction of co-occurring negative cognitive style, a vulnerability to depression and looming cognitive style, vulnerability to anxiety. Results indicate that co-occurring cognitive vulnerabilities synergistically predict higher levels of negative interpersonal life events six weeks later, even when controlling for initial levels of stressful life events and symptoms of depression and anxiety. Thus, co-occurring vulnerabilities may have stronger stress generating effects than would be expected from the additive effects of each vulnerability considered separately. This finding highlights the importance of examining cognitive vulnerabilities as interactive effects rather than as individual vulnerabilities.     

Vulnerability-specific stress generation: an examination of depressogenic cognitive vulnerability across multiple domains

Background and Objectives: Although there is supporting evidence for the stress generation hypothesis (i.e., the tendency for depression-prone individuals to experience more negative dependent events influenced by their behaviors and characteristics), additional research is required to advance current understanding of the specific types of dependent events relevant to this effect. The present study elaborated on the stress generation hypothesis, in which the content of negative dependent events experienced by individuals is contingent upon, and matches, the nature of their particular vulnerabilities. This extension was tested within the context of Cole's competency-based model of depression. Design: Participants (n = 185) were assessed at two time-points separated by a four-month interval. Methods: Self-perceived competence in academic, social, and appearance domains at the initial time-point were examined in relation to negative life events prospectively occurring over the four-month follow-up period, assessed using the “contextual threat” method. Results: Partial support was obtained for vulnerability-specific stress generation. Stress-generation specificity was found for self-perceived competence in appearance and academic domains, but not for self-perceived social competence. Conclusions: The current findings are consistent with the possibility of a more complex relation between self-perceived social competence and domain-congruent stress generation. Individuals may be more likely to experience negative dependent events in domains matching their specific vulnerabilities.     

Automatic question generation and answer assessment for subjective examination

Automatic generation of questions and evaluating their answers is a highly challenging task in natural language processing and educational technology. This work focuses on generating subjective questions and also an evaluation system is suggested for assessing the answers. For generating the questionnaires, key-phrases are extracted from the course curriculum (syllabus). Next, based on the key-phrases, different types of subjective questions are generated. Finally, the evaluation of student’s responses is achieved using a multi-criteria-decision-making approach. It uses a set of model answers taken from different textbooks and subject experts to evaluate the answers. Multiple measures are used to assess the answers by comparing them with this model set. The results of the profound system reveal that the automated appraisal process can reduce the manual effort of the human.     

Cultural Identities of Children of Chinese Migrants in Spain: A Critical Evaluation of the Category 1.5 Generation

The term 1.5 generation has broadly been used to refer to individuals who migrate in childhood or adolescence. It has served as a distinction from the first generation, who voluntarily migrated in adulthood, and from the second generation, born in the host society. The experiences and cultural identities of 1.5-generation children have generally been described as located in between two worlds. However, the present qualitative study conducted among 1.5-generation Chinese living in Spain does not support these views. It shows that some children feel unequivocally Chinese, while the experiences of others reflect much more nuance and complexity that resists categorization. A dialogical perspective is proposed as a multilayered and intersectional approach from which to explore these identities.