“To hope was to expect”: The impact of perspective taking and forecast type on wishful thinking

When forecasting future outcomes, people tend to believe that the outcomes they want to happen are also likely to happen. Despite numerous attempts, few systematic factors have been identified that consistently and robustly reduce wishful thinking (WT) effects. Using elections and sporting event outcomes as contexts, three experiments examined whether taking the perspective of a political rival or opposing fan reduced WT effects. We also examined whether making deliberative (vs. intuitive-based) forecasts was associated with lower WT effects. Online adult samples of U.S. citizens from Mechanical Turk and U.S. college students provided their preferences and forecasts for the U.S. presidential election (Experiments 1 and 2) and a sports competition outcome (Experiment 3). Critically, some participants received perspective taking prompts immediately before providing forecasts. First, results revealed reductions in WT effects when participants engaged in perspective taking. Interestingly, this effect only emerged when intuitive-based forecasts were made first (Experiment 3). Second, intuitive-based forecasts revealed stronger evidence of WT effects. Finally, we found that perspective taking and forming forecasts deliberately promoted a shift in focus away from preferences and toward a consideration of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the entities (i.e., candidates and teams). Theoretical implications for understanding WT effects and applied implications for developing interventions are discussed.     

How do conspiratorial explanations differ from non-conspiratorial explanations? A content analysis of real-world online articles

The present research aims to identify unique characteristics of written conspiracy theories. In two pre-registered quantitative human-coded content analyses, we compared 36 pairs of conspiratorial and non-conspiratorial online articles about various events. As predicted, conspiratorial articles—compared to non-conspiratorial articles—contained less factual, more emotional and more threat-related information. Also, we predicted and found that conspiratorial articles presented more argumentation against the opposing standpoint and that they provided explanations that were more dispositional and less falsifiable. Contrary to our predictions, we did not consistently observe that conspiratorial articles presented less argumentation for their own standpoint. Also, we did not find consistent support that conspiratorial articles provided less information about the specific process or more information about the underlying goals of the respective events, or that conspiratorial explanations attributed the events to a lesser extent to situational factors. We discuss the relevance of our findings for the understanding of conspiracy theories.     

DIE MARXISMUS – DEBATTE IM “SILBERNEN ZEITALTER”

Im Anfang des 20.Jahrhunderts unterzog eine Reihe von jungen, später berühmt gewordenen Philosophen den Marxismus einer tiefen Kritik. Ihnen ist es gelungen, wichtige Defekte der revolutionären Doktrinen aufzudecken und ihre verhängnivsollen Konsequenzen vorwegzunehmen. Diese Kritik ist auch für die gegenwärtige geistig-politische Situation aktuell.     

Content variations and performance on formal operational tasks by gender,social class and ability1

The role of task content, gender, social class and cognitive ability in performance on two formal operational tasks is explored in this paper. The participants were 110 Icelandic 12-year-olds, early and late developers, males and females from all socio-economic groups. Two tasks of variable isolation (the pendulum and three content versions of the “plant” problem) and two measures of volume conservation (three traditional tasks and three tasks formally identical whose content was pictorial social play) were presented individually in a school setting. The results suggest that content variations have differential consequences for the performance of early and late developers at age 12. Both the nature of logical competence and task content affect solutions, as suggested by Overton and collaborators in 1987. Some social class and gender differences were observed on two Piagetian tasks (pendulum and volume), which was reduced by changing the task content in the case of social class but not in that of gender. As the gender difference in volume conservation was not reflected ins chool achievement nor on other cognitive tasks it was interpreted as a gender bias. The findings are discussed in view of recent literature on the development of cognitive theory with increased emphasis on context and meaning in a post-structural intellectual climate.     

Marcel's “availability” in existential psychotherapy with couples and families

Gabriel Marcel was a French, Catholic, existential philosopher who first presented the concept of human availability as a central way of strengthening the self and facilitating the experience of human freedom. In this article Marcel's ideas about availability are described, reviewed, and examined for their implications for the practice of existential psychotherapy with couples and families.     

The application of the satir model of family therapy to the families in Hong Kong: A personal reflection

Practitioners in Hong Kong have shown an increasing interest in various family therapy approaches since the 1980s. This paper offers a critique of the major concepts and techniques of the Satir model applied to families in Hong Kong. Cultural considerations are examined in relation to the family structure and hierarchy, the Chinese self and self-esteem, communication patterns, and family rules. Implications for the application of the Satir model of family therapy in Hong Kong are discussed.     

Comparing computer‐based training and lecture formats to teach visual analysis of baseline‐treatment graphs

Accurate analysis of data is vital to the validation of interventions. As such, there has been a recent increase in studies evaluating visual analysis training procedures. However, past investigations have not evaluated direct and indirect visual analysis training methods with matched instructional content that was systematically designed. Furthermore, training has rarely included assessment of generalization and maintenance of visual analysis skills. The purpose of the current dissertation study was to compare the effectiveness and efficiency of (a) computer‐based training, (b) lecture formats with and (c) without the opportunity to pause, and (d) a no‐training group to teach visual analysis of AB graphs to university students. To make these formats directly comparable, the instructional content was equated by ensuring information and examples were identical across the three training procedures. Eighty‐three students were randomly assigned to one of the four groups. Results showed that all three training formats produced increases in accurate responding compared to the no‐training group. Visual analysis skills generalized to novel graphs and maintained approximately 2 weeks following all trainings. These results suggest that structured approaches that are carefully designed to train visual analysis are effective and lead to gains that generalize and maintain in the absence of training.