跨期选择的变易程度正向预测中华文化圈国民的自评扛疫成效：亚非欧美大洋洲18国跨国研究

跨期选择是对不同时间点的得失的权衡与选择。伊索寓言《蚂蚁和蚱蜢》假借群居型昆虫的跨期选择偏爱暗喻投资未来的慢策略比只顾眼前的快策略更利于生存。用跨期选择领域通用的语言解读这一寓言便是：选择大而迟选项的蚂蚁比选择小而早选项的蚱蜢更可能扛过严冬而生存下来。为了探索何种跨期选择策略更有助于我们扛过疫情,本研究调查了亚非欧美大洋洲这5大洲18个国家共计26355名受测者对混合得失双结果的跨期选择偏爱,测量了人们平时和疫时跨期选择偏爱的变易程度(2类变易的程度指标),以及人们自评的扛疫成效。跨文化比较结果的主要发现是：不同通货的选择变易程度(指标1)和不同时期的选择变易程度(指标2)能联合预测中国/新加坡文化圈国民的自评扛疫成效;不同时期的选择变易程度(指标2)也可以单独预测印度/马来西亚/菲律宾/尼日利亚文化圈国民的自评扛疫成效;这2类选择偏爱变易的程度指标不能预测其他文化圈国民的自评扛疫成效(或者预测方向和假设相反)。基于易经“穷则变,变则通”的要旨和跨国比较的发现,我们认为：面临历史危机时善于变通的特长抑或成就了中华民族特有的竞争优势;在应对危机时,与中国文化距离越相近的国家或民族抑或也能...     

A maximum likelihood method for latent class regression involving a censored dependent variable

The standard tobit or censored regression model is typically utilized for regression analysis when the dependent variable is censored. This model is generalized by developing a conditional mixture, maximum likelihood method for latent class censored regression. The proposed method simultaneously estimates separate regression functions and subject membership in K latent classes or groups given a censored dependent variable for a cross-section of subjects. Maximum likelihood estimates are obtained using an EM algorithm. The proposed method is illustrated via a consumer psychology application.     

Effectiveness of School-Based Mental Health Services for Children: A 10-Year Research Review

A review of the literature from 1985 to 1995 on school-based mental health services for children was conducted using a computerized data-base search. Of the 5,046 references initially identified, 228 were program evaluations. Three inclusion criteria were applied to those studies: use of random assignment to the intervention; inclusion of a control group; and use of standardized outcome measures. Only 16 studies met these criteria. Three types of interventions were found to have empirical support for their effectiveness, although some of the evidence was mixed: cognitive-behavioral therapy, social skills training, and teacher consultation. The studies are discussed with reference to the sample, targeted problem, implementation, and types of outcomes assessed, using a comprehensive model of outcome domains, called the SFCES model. Future studies of school-based mental health services should (a) investigate the effectiveness of these interventions with a wider range of children's psychiatric disorders; (b) broaden the range of outcomes to include variables related to service placements and family perspectives; (c) examine the combined effectiveness of these empirically-validated interventions; and (d) evaluate the impact of these services when linked to home-based interventions.     

Termination of Mental Health Services for Children

In this paper, we examine the termination of children's mental health services. Analyses were based on the 901 families in the Fort Bragg Evaluation Project who participated at Wave 1 and Wave 2 six months later. The project compared a full continuum of care provided at a demonstration site with traditional care at two comparison sites. The results showed that in most cases families and providers were partners in decisions to terminate treatment. About half of the clients self-terminated or were terminated solely at the discretion of the provider. Providers tended to play a more dominant role in terminating restrictive services; families played a more central role in terminating outpatient care. Regardless of initial psychopathology, children in single-headed households, whose parents were dissatisfied with services, did not expect their child to cooperate with treatment and did not expect treatment to help their child, were more likely to terminate care than others. While the Demonstration site had significantly fewer terminations, the sites did not differ with regard to the reasons for termination, who participated in termination decisions, or the factors that affected the likelihood to terminate care. Of most interest, mental health outcomes among children who had terminated all care did not vary by reasons for termination or by who participated in the termination decision.     

Multiaxial taxonomy of fibromyalgia syndrome patients

Pain, disability, and depression are present in various degrees in patients with fibromyalgia syndrome. Cluster analysis was used in this research to ascertain the existence of subgroups of patients in a fibromyalgia sample based on these variables. Two clusters were defined: one characterized by high levels of pain, disability, and depression (n=51) and another characterized by low levels of pain, disability, and depression (n=67). Multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) confirmed differences between clusters on these health status factors and a second MANOVA revealed that the subgroup with a poorer health status reported greater passive coping, helplessness, and stress, and less satisfaction with social support, than the subgroup with better health status. Logistic regression indicated that the best discriminator of subgroup membership was helplessness. These results suggest that different approaches to patient management, particularly intervention strategies aimed at reducing helplessness, may be beneficial for patients with high levels of pain, disability, and depression.     

Increasing senior citizen participation in a community-based nutritious meal program

Two experiments were conducted to compare the effects of several prompting and reinforcement procedures on the participation of elderly citizens in a nutritious meal program. Experiment I employed a variation of the multiple-baseline design across three groups of approximately 60 households each. Elderly persons not previously participating in the program were introduced to the following conditions: (1) public service radio announcements for four weeks to advertise the meal program and the availability of free transportation, (2) a home visit that served as a personal invitation and a second prompt for participation, (3) a followup telephone call, and (4) an incentive menu for participation, which was sent through the mail. Results indicated that the home visits and incentives were both effective as recruitment procedures and superior to other conditions; however, incentives proved to be the most cost-effective intervention. Experiment II used a variation of the multi-element design to compare the effects of scheduled activities and incentives in maintaining higher levels of participation by those persons who had attended the meal program at least once in the past, but whose current rate of participation was low. Results showed that activities improved attendance levels somewhat and that incentives substantially increased the number of meal program participants. Data from these experiments thus indicate that relatively inexpensive procedures may be used effectively to increase the extent to which elderly persons make use of potentially beneficial community-based services.     

A stochastic multidimensional scaling procedure for the empirical determination of convex indifference curves for preference/choice analysis

The vast majority of existing multidimensional scaling (MDS) procedures devised for the analysis of paired comparison preference/choice judgments are typically based on either scalar product (i.e., vector) or unfolding (i.e., ideal-point) models. Such methods tend to ignore many of the essential components of microeconomic theory including convex indifference curves, constrained utility maximization, demand functions, et cetera. This paper presents a new stochastic MDS procedure called MICROSCALE that attempts to operationalize many of these traditional microeconomic concepts. First, we briefly review several existing MDS models that operate on paired comparisons data, noting the particular nature of the utility functions implied by each class of models. These utility assumptions are then directly contrasted to those of microeconomic theory. The new maximum likelihood based procedure, MICROSCALE, is presented, as well as the technical details of the estimation procedure. The results of a Monte Carlo analysis investigating the performance of the algorithm as a number of model, data, and error factors are experimentally manipulated are provided. Finally, an illustration in consumer psychology concerning a convenience sample of thirty consumers providing paired comparisons judgments for some fourteen brands of over-the-counter analgesics is discussed.     

Do medical decision analyses' largest gains grow from the smallest trees?

Some decision analysts recommend reserving their models for careful, complete study of complex problems. Others believe simple problem analyses provide the greatest gains. To clarify these issues, I tested: (1) whether simple published analyses compared to complex ones, produced results as non-intuitive; and (2) whether non-intuitiveness represented analytic gain (or equivalently, intuitive loss). Very limited data also examined (3) the gain from adding model intricacy for a given problem vs. selecting more complex problems for analysis. To assess two non-intuitiveness measures, 75 subjects (33 physicians and 42) non-physicians stated their intuitive preferences in 40 (22 published and 18 unpublished) medical dilemmas. For both physicians and non-physicians, simpler models (those with lees than 30 terminal branches in the decision tree) had about one third the non-intuitiveness of more complex ones. Three tests also supported the premise that analyses outperform intuition, therefore that on average the formers' non-intuitiveness reflects less analytic gain. In addition, for different models of the same problem, tree complexity did not correlate with gain. Thus, simpler trees may not generally gain less because they inadequately describe problems. Instead, simpler analyses may represent simpler problems, with more similar intuitive and formal solutions. If so, these findings may help us avoid some costly but unnecessary simple analyses.     

The design and evaluation of a worksharing system for experimental group living

Failure to share household chores equitably may be a major cause of the high failure rate of experimental group-living arrangements. A behavioral approach to worksharing based on a point system was implemented in one experimental group and its most important components experimentally evaluated. Experiment I showed that awarding credits produced more work than not awarding credits. Experiment II showed that making credits contingent on the outcome of a detailed inspection produced more work than awarding credits noncontingently. Experiment III demonstrated that awarding rent reductions contingent on credit earnings produced more work than awarding rent reductions noncontingently. Other evaluative data suggest that the resulting living arrangement is cheaper, more effective, and more satisfactory to the residents when compared to the most popular alternative living arrangements.     

Future Well-Being Among People Who Attempt Suicide and Survive: Research Recommendations

Over 48,000 people died by suicide in 2018 in the United States, and more than 25 times that number attempted suicide. Research on suicide has focused much more on risk factors and adverse outcomes than on protective factors and more healthy functioning. Consequently, little is known regarding relatively positive long-term psychological adaptation among people who attempt suicide and survive. We recommend inquiry into the phenomenon of long-term well-being after nonfatal suicide attempts, and we explain how this inquiry complements traditional risk research by (a) providing a more comprehensive understanding of the sequelae of suicide attempts, (b) identifying protective factors for potential use in interventions and prevention, and (c) contributing to knowledge and public education that reduce the stigma associated with suicide-related behaviors.