Response error and processing biases in confidence judgment

Previous studies showed that random error can explain overconfidence effects typically observed in the literature. One of these studies concluded that, after accounting for random error effects in the data, there is little support for cognitive‐processing biases in confidence elicitation. In this paper, we investigate more closely the random error explanation for overconfidence. We generated data from four models of confidence and then estimated the magnitude of random error in the data. Our results show that, in addition to the true magnitude of random error specified in the simulations, the error estimates are influenced by important cognitive‐processing biases in the confidence elicitation process. We found that random error in the response process can account for the degree of overconfidence found in calibration studies, even when that overconfidence is actually caused by other factors. Thus, the error models say little about whether cognitive biases are present in the confidence elicitation process. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

‘He's got his father's bias’: Parental influence on weight bias in young children

Our aim was to explore the role of parents in the transmission of stereotypical body size attitudes and awareness of weight loss strategies to preschool children. Participants were 279 3‐year‐old children and their parents, who provided data at baseline and 1 year later. Parents completed self‐report body size attitude and dieting measures. Child weight bias and awareness of weight loss strategies were assessed through interview. Over time, negative associations with large bodies and awareness of weight loss strategies increased. Fathers’ attitudes prospectively predicted boys’ weight bias and awareness of weight loss strategies. Among girls, parental attitudes were less predictive. Findings confirm the importance of fathers in the development of boys’ body attitudes and inform prevention programmes.     

《易数钩隐图》作者等问题辨

自南宋时起,《易数钩隐图》一书的作者就有二字与二籍贯的争议。本文就有关问题进行了考辨。得出北宋有二刘牧、前刘牧著《易数钩隐图》、黄黎献为之续补等结论。最后指出,彭城刘牧的道学思想应当在宋明理学中占有一席之地。     

Racism en Route

This article argues that in Africa, the nature and advent of racism has to be traced back to the earliest encounters between Africans and Europeans, including the first seven centuries but especially during the slavery and colonial eras. Religion (notably Islam and Christianity), trade, education, culture, and “science” were important incubators and justifiers of racism, in earlier as well as recent times. The paper concludes by proposing some ways in which African theology can stay agile and keep pace with the resilient and adaptive forms of racism in contemporary Africa.     

简帛《周易·夬卦》"丧"字补说

上博三《周易·夬卦》中的“丧”并非误字,马王堆汉墓帛书本与此相应的“牵”实为“桑”字,当读为“丧”,而今本中的“牵”可能系“桑”之形讹。     

THE GOLEM LEGEND AND THE ENIGMA OF FACEBOOK

We are easily misguided as to the true nature of Facebook, and tend to treat it simply as a powerful technological instrument in the service of human intentions. We can, however, gain a better picture of it through recourse to the Jewish tradition of the golem, an image of human beings, created by them in a re-enactment of their own creation by God. It turns into a magic servant in modernity with an inherent dynamic running between its human and its subhuman characteristics. This dynamic is the main cause behind its becoming uncontrollable. In like manner, what is subhuman in Facebook serves its masters and functions under their total control, but also empowers Facebook's increasingly human operation, an algorithm-based capability which raises growing doubts about what counts as human. Facebook implies the crisis of humanity which coincides with the “death of God,” that is, the obsolescence of the idea of a divine creator.     

Kindergarten self-control mediates the gender reading achievement gap: A population-based cohort study

Could superior self-control explain the gender difference in reading achievement favoring girls? To test this idea, we drew on a unique population-based sample (N = 11,336) where self-control was measured in kindergarten using a multimethod battery of assessments. Girls showed substantially higher levels of self-control in kindergarten (β = 0.47) and outperformed boys on standardized tests of reading achievement in third/fourth grade (β = 0.20). Further, kindergarten self-control prospectively predicted reading achievement throughout elementary school (β = 0.37). Connecting these findings, our mediation analyses revealed that the female self-control advantage in kindergarten could account for subsequent gender differences in reading achievement. Our results suggest that early gender differences in self-control may represent a key pathway through which gender disparities in reading skills, vocabulary knowledge, and reading comprehension occur.     

Individual differences in reverse Hindsight bias: I never thought something like chernobyl would happen. Did I?

Hindsight bias was studied in the context of the accident in the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, which took place on April 26th 1986. An individual difference factor which relates to the motivation to process information, need for cognition, was expected to moderate the occurrence of hindsight bias. Probability estimates of many casualties due to the use of nuclear power in The Netherlands were obtained from 212 individuals two months before the accident in Chernobyl. These estimates were compared with similar estimates made in hindsight by the same individuals five months after the accident. Loglinear Analyses reveal a systematic hindsight bias. However, the direction of the bias was contrary to expectations. In hindsight, individuals gave lower probabilities than they actually did two months before the Chernobyl accident. These results reveal a reverse hindsight bias. As hypothesized, need for cognition moderates hindsight bias: individuals low and medium in need for cognition express a systematic reverse hindsight bias, while individuals high in need for cognition do not. High need for cognition individuals also show higher literal consistency between the two measurements, which supports a memory explanation of the moderating effect of need for cognition.     

SPELLING AND EMERGENT PICTURE-PRINTED WORD RELATIONS ESTABLISHED WITH DELAYED IDENTITY MATCHING TO COMPLEX SAMPLES

Students with academic deficits learned delayed matching-to-sample tasks that used complex sample stimuli, each consisting of a picture and a printed word. A touch to the sample complex removed it from the computer display and produced either picture comparisons or a choice pool of letters. If the comparisons were pictures, selecting the picture identical to the preceding sample was reinforced. If the letters appeared, letter-by-letter construction of the preceding printed word sample was reinforced. The procedure engendered new constructed-response spelling performances and arbitrary relations among pictures and printed words in matching to sample. The emergence of relations among different sets of printed words (paired with the same pictures) suggested classes of equivalent stimuli. Outcome tests involving spoken words as sample stimuli suggested expansion of subjects' spelling repertoires and stimulus classes.