Response error and processing biases in confidence judgment

Previous studies showed that random error can explain overconfidence effects typically observed in the literature. One of these studies concluded that, after accounting for random error effects in the data, there is little support for cognitive‐processing biases in confidence elicitation. In this paper, we investigate more closely the random error explanation for overconfidence. We generated data from four models of confidence and then estimated the magnitude of random error in the data. Our results show that, in addition to the true magnitude of random error specified in the simulations, the error estimates are influenced by important cognitive‐processing biases in the confidence elicitation process. We found that random error in the response process can account for the degree of overconfidence found in calibration studies, even when that overconfidence is actually caused by other factors. Thus, the error models say little about whether cognitive biases are present in the confidence elicitation process. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Loving and angry? Happy and sad? Understanding and reporting of mixed emotions in mother–child relationships by 6‐ to 12‐year‐olds

The Evaluative Space Model of emotions allows for the coactivation of positive‐appetitive and negative‐avoidant systems, but few studies have examined mixed emotions in child development. Existing research suggests children's understanding of opposite valence emotion combinations emerges by approximately 11 years of age. However, it is not yet clear whether various opposite valence combinations are understood at different ages, nor whether children can understand them in others before they have experienced such mixed emotions themselves. Semi‐structured interviews with 97 children investigated whether they regarded six combinations of opposite valence mixed emotions as possible, could provide reasons for them, and report their own experience of each in the context of mother–child relationships. Both understanding that such combinations are possible and ability to provide reasons for them increased after age 6 and up to age 11, but were still incomplete in 12‐year‐olds. Understanding of different opposite valence combinations developed at different rates. At each age, fewer children who showed understanding of these combinations in others reported having had a similar experience themselves. The findings suggest a need to systematically examine a range of mixed emotions in order to develop a comprehensive theory of the development of mixed emotion understanding. They also suggest extending research into adolescence.     

Understanding cross-cultural sales manager–salesperson relationships in the Asia-Pacific Rim region: a grounded theory approach

Abstract

As more organizations implement multinational strategies, sales managers leading sales forces encounter complex cultural challenges that affect relationships, processes, and outcomes. We undertake a qualitative study with the objective of understanding the sales manager–salesperson relationship when the sales manager is leading sales representatives located in other cultures. Because of the significant size and growth of Asian countries, we focus our study on the Asia-Pacific Rim region. In-depth interviews conducted with 21 sales managers working for a large multinational technology firm in our focal region provide the data for our analysis. Using a grounded theory approach, we identify five key themes: building and sustaining cross-cultural relationships, cross-cultural communication effectiveness, acquisition and maintenance of trust across cultures, language, and decision-making. From our findings, research propositions are offered and implications for researchers and practitioners are discussed.     

Employee–supervisor political skill congruence and work outcomes: The mediating role of leader–member exchange quality

This study aims to investigate the effect of employee–supervisor political skill congruence on the quality of leader–member exchange (LMX), which in turn influences employees' job satisfaction and turnover intention. For this purpose, two survey studies were conducted. The first study examined the relationship between employee–supervisor political skill congruence and LMX using multi-source data collected from 287 employee–supervisor dyads. The second study examined the indirect effect of congruence in political skill on work outcomes through LMX by using time-lagged multi-source data collected from 142 employee–supervisor dyads. The findings indicate that compared with incongruence, congruence in political skill is associated with higher employee-rated LMX. Moreover, among dyads with congruent political skills, congruence at high levels of political skill is associated with higher employee-rated LMX compared with congruence at low levels of political skill. Moreover, in case of incongruency, low employee–high supervisor political skill combination was related to higher supervisor-rated LMX compared with high employee–low supervisor political skill combination. Lastly, employee–supervisor political skill congruency indirectly influences job satisfaction and turnover intention through employee-rated LMX. This research significantly contributes to the political skill literature by examining potential consequences of employee–supervisor congruence in political skill in the workplace.     

繁殖群中婴幼川金丝猴社会关系发展的个案研究

使用瞬时取样法,对繁殖笼内出生的两只婴幼川金丝猴进行连续22个月的行为记录。结果表明,川金丝猴婴猴断乳大约在19—20月龄;断乳表现为母婴之间矛盾冲突的过程;群内其他雌性对初生婴儿表现出明显的抢婴、护婴和育婴行为;父亲对婴幼猴表现出接纳和容忍的态度;婴儿在断乳前是群内全体成员保护和爱护的对象,以后开始进入社会关系网,受到成年个体的责备,但很轻微;雌性幼猴在32月龄时尚未被记录到对群内成员表现威胁、蜷缩和匍伏等行为模式。     

A post hoc correction procedure for systematic errors in time-sampling duration estimates

Numerous previous studies have shown that partial-interval sampling in direct observation systematically overestimates duration and underestimates frequency. Whole-interval sampling systematically underestimates both duration and frequency. This paper presents a post hoc method through which the systematic errors in duration estimates in partial-interval sampling and whole-interval sampling can be minimized.     

The roles of self-regulation and partner regulation on romantic relationship quality

Research into self-regulation and partner regulation strategies has largely involved parallel lines of research, thus, it is difficult to determine the relative contribution of both forms of regulation when it comes to relationship outcomes. Therefore, the question remains as to which form of regulation is more strongly associated with relationship quality; is it more important to focus on adaptive self-regulation or adaptive strategies to regulate one's partner? The current research addresses this important gap by comparing the relative associations of adaptive self-regulation and adaptive partner regulation strategies on romantic relationship quality. A community sample of mixed gender couples (N = 114) who were predominantly satisfied with their current relationships – but nonetheless still experienced relationship conflict – were administered self-report assessments of various self-regulation and partner regulation strategies as well as a measure of relationship quality. Couples also participated in a videotaped discussion of an unresolved relationship issue that was scored by trained coders for verbal and nonverbal indicators of self-regulation and partner regulation strategies. Actor–partner interdependence modeling revealed that for both men and women, adaptive self-regulation strategies were positively associated with their own evaluations of relationship quality as well as their partner's relationship quality. In contrast, engaging in adaptive partner regulation strategies was not significantly associated with men's or women's own, or their partner's relationship quality. Findings highlight the importance of focusing on self-regulation in relationships, as it is these strategies, over partner regulation strategies, that have more positive implications for the relationship quality experienced by typically satisfied couples.     

The intergenerational transmission of relationship instability: A focus on emerging adult on-off relationships

This study extends prior research on the intergenerational transmission of relationship instability by examining parents' history of on-off relationships as a predictor of emerging adults' own cycling (i.e., breaking up and renewing with the same romantic partner). Data were collected at a large mid-western university from 702 emerging adults (18–25 years old). Multinomial logistic regression was used to predict the likelihood that participants had cycled in a past or current relationship. Results show that parental cycling increased the likelihood of offspring cycling in a past or current relationship relative to never cycling, and greater uncertainty about the future of the relationship was a mechanism through which such transmission occurred. Findings from this study demonstrate that parental relationship instability can even be consequential for the transient relationships within emerging adulthood, making family history a productive area to explore for practitioners working with cyclical partners and/or emerging adults.     

The comparison problem for approximating epistemic ideals

Some epistemologists think that the Bayesian ideals matter because we can approximate them. That is, our attitudes can be more or less close to the ones of our ideal Bayesian counterpart. In this paper, I raise a worry for this justification of epistemic ideals. The worry is this: In order to correctly compare agents to their ideal counterparts, we need to imagine idealized agents who have the same relevant information, knowledge, or evidence. However, there are cases in which one's ideal counterpart cannot have one's information, knowledge, or evidence. In these situations, agents cannot compare themselves to their ideal counterpart.     

The influence of mindset abstraction on preference for mixed versus extreme approaches to multigoal pursuits

Facing multiple conflicting goals, consumers may attempt to simultaneously pursue multiple goals by choosing mixed vice–virtue bundles in each consumption episode (mixed approach). Alternatively, they may maximize their pursuit of one goal at a time and sequentially manage multiple goals by alternating between pure-virtue and pure-vice bundles across consumption episodes (extreme approach). The current research proposes that consumer preferences between the two approaches depend on mindset abstraction. Across four experimental studies in the domains of food and financial decision-making, we demonstrate that, relative to an abstract mindset, a concrete mindset increases preference for the extreme approach over the mixed approach. Furthermore, by observing actual food choices over a seven-day period, this research provides a comprehensive picture of how a chronic mindset relates to multigoal management in long-term consumption patterns. The findings have both theoretical implications for the goal literature and managerial implications for marketers and policymakers.