Individual differences in reverse Hindsight bias: I never thought something like chernobyl would happen. Did I?

Hindsight bias was studied in the context of the accident in the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, which took place on April 26th 1986. An individual difference factor which relates to the motivation to process information, need for cognition, was expected to moderate the occurrence of hindsight bias. Probability estimates of many casualties due to the use of nuclear power in The Netherlands were obtained from 212 individuals two months before the accident in Chernobyl. These estimates were compared with similar estimates made in hindsight by the same individuals five months after the accident. Loglinear Analyses reveal a systematic hindsight bias. However, the direction of the bias was contrary to expectations. In hindsight, individuals gave lower probabilities than they actually did two months before the Chernobyl accident. These results reveal a reverse hindsight bias. As hypothesized, need for cognition moderates hindsight bias: individuals low and medium in need for cognition express a systematic reverse hindsight bias, while individuals high in need for cognition do not. High need for cognition individuals also show higher literal consistency between the two measurements, which supports a memory explanation of the moderating effect of need for cognition.     

Criterion-related construct validity

Established results on latent variable models are applied to the study of the validity of a psychological test. When the test predicts a criterion by measuring a unidimensional latent construct, not only must the total score predict the criterion, but the joint distribution of criterion scores and item responses must exhibit a certain pattern. The presence of this population pattern may be tested with sample data using the stratified Wilcoxon rank sum test. Often, criterion information is available only for selected examinees, for instance, those who are admitted or hired. Three cases are discussed: (i) selection at random, (ii) selection based on the current test, and (iii) selection based on other measures of the latent construct. Discriminant validity is also discussed.This work was supported in part by Grant SES-87-01890 from the Measurement Methods and Data Improvement Program of the U.S. National Science Foundation.     

Functional classes and equivalence relations

Three adult subjects were taught a set of two-choice simultaneous discriminations, with three positive and three negative stimuli; all possible combinations of positive and negative stimuli yielded nine different pairs. The discriminations were repeatedly reversed and rereversed, the former positive stimuli becoming negative and the former negative stimuli becoming positive. With all subjects, a reversal of the contingencies for one pair of stimuli became sufficient to change their responses to all of the other pairs. The reversals had produced functional stimulus classes. Then, all subjects showed conditional discriminations emerging between members of a functional class; given a sample from one class and comparisons from both classes, they selected the comparison that was in the same class as the sample. Next, 2 of the subjects showed that the within-class conditional relations possessed the symmetric and transitive properties of equivalence relations; after having been taught to relate new stimuli to existing class members, the subjects then matched other class members to the new stimuli. Subsequent tests of two-choice discriminations showed that the conditional discriminations had transferred functional class membership to the new stimuli. The 3rd subject, who did not show equivalence relations among functional class members, was also found to have lost the within-class conditional relations after the equivalence tests.     

Effects of ratio reinforcement schedules on discrimination performance by Japanese monkeys

In Experiment 1, Japanese monkeys were trained on three conditional position-discrimination problems with colors as the conditional cues. Within each session, each problem was presented for two blocks of ten reinforcements; correct responses were reinforced under continuous-reinforcement, fixed-ratio 5, and variable-ratio 5 schedules, each assigned to one of the three problems. The assignment of schedules to problems was rotated a total of three times (15 sessions per assignment) after 30 sessions of acquisition training. Accuracy of discrimination increased to a moderate level with fewer trials under CRF than under ratio schedules. In contrast, the two ratio schedules, fixed and variable, were more effective in maintaining accurate discrimination than was CRF. With further training, as asymptotes were reached, accuracy was less affected by the schedule differences. These results demonstrated an interaction between the effects of reinforcement schedules and the level of acquisition. In Experiment 2, ratio sizes were gradually increased to 30. Discrimination accuracy was maintained until the ratio reached 20; ratio 30 strained the performance. Under FR conditions, accuracy increased as correct choice responses cumulated after reinforcement.     

Symmetry and transitivity of conditional relations in monkeys (Cebus apella) and pigeons (Columba livia)

In Experiment 1 six monkeys were tested with discriminative relations that were backward relative to their training in a 0-second conditional (“symbolic”) matching procedure. Although there was some indication of backward associations, the evidence was generally weak, and statistical evaluations did not reach conventional significance levels. Unlike children, who show backward associations to the point of symmetry, monkeys and pigeons display at best only weak and transient backward associations. In Experiment 2 associative transitivity was assessed across two sets of conditional matching tasks. All four monkeys tested demonstrated strong transitivity. In contrast, in Experiment 3 there was no evidence of transitivity in three pigeons tested under conditions closely comparable to those of Experiment 2. These results may identify some key features of interspecies differences and contribute to analyses of serial learning in animals.     

Stimulus class membership established via stimulus-reinforcer relations

In an arbitrary matching-to-sample procedure, two mentally retarded subjects learned conditional discriminations with two sets of stimuli. Each set included a spoken name (N1 or N2), an object (O1 or O2), and a printed symbol (S1 or S2). One subject selected conditionally (a) O1 upon N1, and O2 upon N2, and (b) S1 upon O1, and S2 upon O2. The other subject selected conditionally (a) S1 upon N1, and S2 upon N2, and (b) O1 upon S1, and O2 upon S2. For both subjects, selections of O1 and S1 produced one type of food, F1; selections of O2 and S2 produced a different type of food, F2. Both subjects also learned identity-matching performances, selecting O1, O2, S1, S2, F1, and F2 conditionally upon those stimuli as samples; F1 followed selections of O1, S1, and F1; F2 followed selections of O2, S2, and F2. Matching performances consistent with stimulus class formation involving the names, objects, symbols, and foods were demonstrated on probe trials, even though these performances had not been taught explicitly. Next, new objects, X1 and X2, were presented on identity-matching trials, producing F1 and F2, respectively. Without further training, X1 was selected conditionally upon N1, S1, and O1, and X2 was selected upon N2, S2, and O2. When the contingencies were changed so that selections of X1 and X2 were now followed by F2 and F1, respectively, X2 was selected conditionally upon N1, S1, and O1, and X1 was selected upon N2, S2, and O2. Class membership of X1 and X2 had apparently changed. This study provides evidence that reinforcers may become members of stimulus classes, and that new stimuli may become class members through relations with reinforcers.     

Observing responses maintained by conditional discriminative stimuli.

In a conditional discrimination procedure, pigeons' observing responses were analyzed to examine whether two color stimuli (blue or red), conditionally related to whether each of two line stimuli (vertical or horizontal) accompanied reinforcement or nonreinforcement, functioned as conditioned reinforcers. If a variable-interval (VI) 10-s requirement was fulfilled, an observing response produced onset of a color stimulus. A little later, a line stimulus was presented independently of responding, added to the color stimulus to form a compound stimulus. If 55 s elapsed with a response not having occurred either through 55 s or after the variable-interval 10-s had timed out, one of the color-line compound stimuli was presented independently of responding. To control for sensory reinforcement effects and for earlier entrance to the later link, a simple discrimination procedure also was conducted in which reinforcement was not correlated with the color stimuli but with the line stimuli only. As in the conditional discrimination, the observing response also could produce earlier presentation of blue or red. The observing response occurred more frequently during the conditional discrimination than during the simple discrimination. The results were related to different theoretical accounts of conditioned reinforcement, particularly the information hypothesis.     

Conditional relations by monkeys: Reflexivity, symmetry, and transitivity

Two cynomolgous macaques categorized six colors into two groups of three after conditional discrimination training (zero-delay symbolic match-to-sample). The procedures resulted in the establishment of relations among the elements of each set-relations that were not specifically trained and that can be characterized by the properties of reflexivity, symmetry, and transitivity. Each set of colors was related to a characteristic pattern of responding: One response pattern involved temporal duration (press and hold the response keys); the second response pattern entailed repeated pressing and releasing of the response keys (fixed ratio 8). Six combinations of two colors were trained, three combinations from each set. After discriminative performance stabilized for each monkey, they were tested with 10 additional color combinations, all of which differed from the training combinations. The conditional relations established between test combinations can be characterized as stimulus equivalence. The training procedures were analogous to the procedure of using category names, and have implications for understanding the function of language in the formation of equivalence classes.     

Self-selection biases in correlational studies based on questionnaires

It is commonly held that even where questionnaire response is poor, correlational studies are affected only by loss of degrees of freedom or precision. We show that this supposition is not true. If the decision to respond is correlated with a substantive variable of interest, then regression or analysis of variance methods based upon the questionnaire results may be adversely affected by self-selection bias. Moreover such bias may arise even where response is 100%. The problem in both cases arises where selection information is passed to the score indirectly via the disturbance or individual effects, rather than entirely via the observable explanatory variables. We suggest tests for the ensuing self-selection bias and possible ways of handling the ensuing problems of inference.The author would like to thank members of the Psychology Department at UWA for references on the illustrative example, namely the effects of sex-stereotyping on achievements in mathematics; thanks are also due to the anonymous reviewers whose comments resulted in material improvements to the paper.     

A note on the computation of the second-order derivatives of the elementary symmetric functions in the rasch model

Jansen (1984) gave explicit formulas for the computation of the second-order derivatives of the elementary symmetric functions. But they are only applicable to those pairs of items which have unequal parameters. It is shown here that for equal parameters similar explicit formulas do exist, too, facilitating the application of the Newton-Raphson procedure to estimate the parameters in the Rasch model and related models according to the conditional maximum likelihood principle.The author wishes to thank the reviewers for their helpful comments on an earlier draft of this paper.