An eyewitness paradox

Two methods of analysing data from an identification parade give rise to seemingly contradictory outcomes, both of which reach statistical significance. The traditional method is based on the first choices of eyewitnesses, whereas the paired-comparison method takes account of each eyewitness's full rank ordering of the lineup participants. The person that most eyewitnesses pick out as the perpetrator of an offence (according to the first-choice method) may in fact be the person that those same eyewitnesses as a group regard as least likely to have committed the act (according to the paired-comparison method). Implications of the paradox for the analysis of lineup data are considered.     

Melodies in caregivers' speech: A species-specific guidance towards language

The author reports on a series of integrated studies on melodic contours in infant-directed (ID) speech. ID melodies in speech are taken as an instructive example of intuitive parenting in order to review current evidence on its forms, functions and determinants. The forms and functions of melodic prototypes are compared in terms of universal properties and individual and/or cultural variability across samples of German, Chinese and American mothers, and German mothers and fathers with their 2- and 3-month-old infants. Microanalyses of interactional contexts show that forms and functions of ID melodies are intimately related to typical dimensions of intuitive caregiving–arousing/soothing, turnyielding/turn-closing, approving/disapproving. The communicative functions of ID melodies as both categorical and graded signals are discussed with respect to the current knowledge on infant responses to ID speech and on early speech perception. According to a comprehensive longitudinal study of ID speech in relation to stages of infant vocalization, ID speech results from fine-tuned adjustments in various prosodic and linguistic features to developmental changes in infants' perceptual and vocal competence. ID melodies evidently have the potential to draw infant attention to caregivers' speech, to regulate arousal and affect in infants, to provide models for imitation, to guide infants in practising communicative subroutines and to mediate linguistic information. Current evidence suggests that the melodies in caregivers' speech provide a species-specific guidance towards language acquisition.     

A note on analyzing ordered alternatives

A general method of devising stepwise multiple testing procedures with fixed experimentwise error is applied to the problem of non-parametric randomized block design with ordered alternatives. In addition, the method is applied to other models with ordered alternatives.The author wishes to thank the referees for helpful suggestions.     

A more powerful method for testing for agreement between a judge and a known standard

We assume that a judge's task is to categorize each ofN subjects into one ofr known classes. The design of primary interest is employed if the judge is presented withs groups, each containingr subjects, such that each group of sizer consists of exactly one subject of each of ther types. The probability distribution for the total number of correct choices is developed and used to test the null hypothesis that the judge is guessing in favor of the alternative that he or she is operating at a better than chance level. The power of the procedure is shown to be superior to two other procedures which appear in the literature.The authors are grateful for the suggestions of the referees and for computer funding provided by the Northeast Regional Data Center at the University of Florida.     

A stochastic multidimensional scaling procedure for the empirical determination of convex indifference curves for preference/choice analysis

The vast majority of existing multidimensional scaling (MDS) procedures devised for the analysis of paired comparison preference/choice judgments are typically based on either scalar product (i.e., vector) or unfolding (i.e., ideal-point) models. Such methods tend to ignore many of the essential components of microeconomic theory including convex indifference curves, constrained utility maximization, demand functions, et cetera. This paper presents a new stochastic MDS procedure called MICROSCALE that attempts to operationalize many of these traditional microeconomic concepts. First, we briefly review several existing MDS models that operate on paired comparisons data, noting the particular nature of the utility functions implied by each class of models. These utility assumptions are then directly contrasted to those of microeconomic theory. The new maximum likelihood based procedure, MICROSCALE, is presented, as well as the technical details of the estimation procedure. The results of a Monte Carlo analysis investigating the performance of the algorithm as a number of model, data, and error factors are experimentally manipulated are provided. Finally, an illustration in consumer psychology concerning a convenience sample of thirty consumers providing paired comparisons judgments for some fourteen brands of over-the-counter analgesics is discussed.     

Spatial and conjoint models based on pairwise comparisons of dissimilarities and combined effects: Complete and incomplete designs

In pairwise multidimensional scaling, a spatial representation for a set of objects is determined from comparisons of the dissimilarity of any two objects drawn from the set to the dissimilarity of other pairs of objects drawn from that set. In pairwise conjoint scaling, comparisons among the joint effects produced by pairs of objects, where the objects in a pair are drawn from separate sets, are used to determine numerical representations for the objects in each set. Monte Carlo simulations of both pairwise dissimilarities and pairwise conjoint effects show that Johnson's algorithm can provide good metric recovery in the presence of high levels of error even when only a small percentage of the complete set of pairwise comparisons are tested.     

Scale sensitivity in the multiplicative AHP and SMART

We consider first a variant of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) with a one-parametric class of geometric scales to quantify human comparative judgement and with a multiplicative structure: logarithmic regression to calculate the impact scores of the alternatives at the first evaluation level and a geometric-mean aggregation rule to calculate the final scores at the second level. We demonstrate that the rank order of the impact scores and final scores is scale-independent. Finally we show that the multiplicative AHP is an exponential version of the simple multi-attribute rating technique (SMART). In fact, the multiplicative AHP is concerned with ratios of intervals on the dimension of desirability, whereas SMART analyses differences in the corresponding orders of magnitude.     

Managerial Stress, Locus of Control, and Job Strain in Taiwan and UK: A Comparative Study

This study investigated managerial stress in Taiwan and UK using the Occupational Stress Indicator-2 (OSI-2) and the Work Locus of Control (WLCS) scale. Results showed that the reliability and validity of the measures used were acceptable and comparable in the two samples. There were similarities as well as differences in managerial stress in the two countries. Recognition and Managerial role were important predictors of strain for the Chinese managers, whereas Relationships, Organizational climate, and Personal responsibility were important predictors of strain for UK managers. There were consistent moderating (vulnerability) effects of internal control for the Taiwanese managers. Results corroborated some previous studies conducted in the West. However, caution was also suggested for generalizing Western-originated concepts and theories across cultural boundaries.     

SAVING THE BEST FOR LAST? A CROSS-SPECIES ANALYSIS OF CHOICES BETWEEN REINFORCER SEQUENCES

Two experiments were conducted to compare choices between sequences of reinforcers in pigeon (Experiment 1) and human (Experiment 2) subjects, using functionally analogous procedures. The subjects made pairwise choices among 3 sequence types, all of which provided the same overall reinforcerment rate, but differed in their temporal patterning. Token reinforcement schedules were used in both experiments and the type of exchange schedule varied across blocks of sessions. Some conditions permitted immediate exchange of tokens for consumable reinforcers (food for pigeons, video access for humans); in other conditions, tokens accumulated and were exchanged for consumable reinforcers only at the end of the sequence. Choice patterns in the immediate-exchange conditions were generally similar across species, with both pigeons and humans preferring sequences with the shortest delay to the initial reinforcer in the series. The results are broadly consistent with models of temporal discounting expanded to include the impact of sequences of delayed reinforcers acting in parallel from the time of the choice. Preferences were less consistent with discounting models in the delayed exchange conditions. Questionnaire data gathered at the end of the experiment were consistent with prior results of questionnaire studies, but showed no straightforward relation to the observed choice patterns, urging caution in the extrapolation of results from one decision-making domain to the other.     

Linking Disjoint Supermatrices and Criteria Clusters

An axiom of the Analytic Network Process (ANP) requires the elements being considered to be strongly connected in order to obtain a meaningful priority vector. A simple example demonstrates the issues that can arise when a decision contains disjoint clusters within the Supermatrix. From the example it can be observed that the necessary information to complete additional linking pin comparisons would have already been collected; and by performing linking pin comparisons a decision maker can convert a disjoint Supermatrix into a strongly connected Supermatrix. The linking process is summarized in five steps and provided in the general form. This linking comparison methodology exploits the fundamental advantages of pairwise comparisons and can also be used to weight the criteria clusters within a decision network. Linking pin comparisons performed at the level of a criterion of a single alternative with respect to another criterion of that same alternative can be used to obtain the criteria cluster weights. Linking pin comparisons at this level can reduce the decision maker's cognitive burden in comparison to totality comparisons. The ability to strongly connect an otherwise disjoint Supermatrix and reduce the decision maker's cognitive burden demonstrates the usefulness of linking pin comparisons in ANP decision models. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.