Response error and processing biases in confidence judgment

Previous studies showed that random error can explain overconfidence effects typically observed in the literature. One of these studies concluded that, after accounting for random error effects in the data, there is little support for cognitive‐processing biases in confidence elicitation. In this paper, we investigate more closely the random error explanation for overconfidence. We generated data from four models of confidence and then estimated the magnitude of random error in the data. Our results show that, in addition to the true magnitude of random error specified in the simulations, the error estimates are influenced by important cognitive‐processing biases in the confidence elicitation process. We found that random error in the response process can account for the degree of overconfidence found in calibration studies, even when that overconfidence is actually caused by other factors. Thus, the error models say little about whether cognitive biases are present in the confidence elicitation process. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Data‐driven approaches to information access

This paper summarizes three lines of research that are motivated by the practical problem of helping users find information from external data sources, most notably computers. The application areas include information retrieval, text categorization, and question answering. A common theme in these applications is that practical information access problems can be solved by analyzing the statistical properties of words in large volumes of real world texts. The same statistical properties constrain human performance, thus we believe that solutions to practical information access problems can shed light on human knowledge representation and reasoning.     

Trait tendencies to forgive,punish, and exonerate oneself: A multi-study investigation

In two studies (N’s = 515 and 359), we examine the utility of the Dual-Process Model of Self-Forgiveness for conceptualizing and measuring trait self-forgiveness with South African and American adults. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses of the trait-adapted Dual-Process Self-Forgiveness Scale supported an eight-item, two-factor structure of self-forgivingness consistent with prior theorizing and empirical evidence. The trait-adapted measure predicted incrementally more variance in outcomes beyond an existing measure of trait self-forgiveness. Latent subgroups characterized by tendencies to forgive, punish, and exonerate oneself in response to wrongdoing or failure were identified. Comparisons of mean differences provided preliminary evidence supporting the validity of the subgroups. Implications of the findings for conceptualizing and measuring self-forgiveness are discussed.     

The heterogeneity of attention‐deficit/hyperactivity disorder symptoms and conduct problems: Cognitive inhibition,emotion regulation,emotionality, and disorganized attachment

This study examined the contributions of several important domains of functioning to attention‐deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptoms and conduct problems. Specifically, we investigated whether cognitive inhibition, emotion regulation, emotionality, and disorganized attachment made independent and specific contributions to these externalizing behaviour problems from a multiple pathways perspective. The study included laboratory measures of cognitive inhibition and disorganized attachment in 184 typically developing children (M age = 6 years, 10 months, SD = 1.7). Parental ratings provided measures of emotion regulation, emotionality, and externalizing behaviour problems. Results revealed that cognitive inhibition, regulation of positive emotion, and positive emotionality were independently and specifically related to ADHD symptoms. Disorganized attachment and negative emotionality formed independent and specific relations to conduct problems. Our findings support the multiple pathways perspective on ADHD, with poor regulation of positive emotion and high positive emotionality making distinct contributions to ADHD symptoms. More specifically, our results support the proposal of a temperamentally based pathway to ADHD symptoms. The findings also indicate that disorganized attachment and negative emotionality constitute pathways specific to conduct problems rather than to ADHD symptoms.     

Rare Constructions Are More Often Sentence‐Initial

Main clause phenomena (MCPs) are syntactic constructions that occur predominantly or exclusively in main clauses. I propose a processing explanation for MCPs. Sentence processing is easiest at the beginning of the sentence (requiring less search); this follows naturally from widely held assumptions about sentence processing. Because of this, a wider variety of constructions can be allowed at the beginning of the sentence without overwhelming the sentence‐processing mechanism. Unlike pragmatic and grammatical accounts of MCPs, the processing account predicts avoidance of MCPs in non‐initial main clauses (non‐initial coordinate clauses and premodified clauses). A corpus study supports these predictions, but it is somewhat inconclusive. A further corpus study examines another type of syntactic construction, premodifying adjunct phrases (“openers”); the prediction here is that less common types of opener will be especially avoided in non‐initial contexts. The prediction is confirmed, supporting the processing view of rare constructions.     

My Country,Right or Wrong: Education,Accumulated Democratic Experience,and Political Socialization of Blind Patriotism

Although educational attainment has been identified as a significant factor that reduces uncritical positive attachment to one's country (i.e., blind patriotism), little is known about whether the remedial effect of education on uncritical patriotism is universal across countries with different histories of democratic rule. This article examines the extent to which democracy stock (the accumulated amount of democratic traditions, legacies, and experiences consolidated over time) conditions the relationship between education and blind patriotism. Using international data from 33 countries, the article shows that the remedial effect of education is more pronounced in countries with larger stocks of democracy than in countries with higher levels of democracy (current or recent). The results imply that the political socialization of critical patriotism is a cumulative process in which citizens internalize their potentially democratic competencies (e.g., knowledge, skills, and dispositions) and develop a sense of national attachment based on critical reflection on government policy and practice (i.e., critical loyalty) over an extended period of time.     

BEHAVIORAL MOMENTUM IN THE TREATMENT OF NONCOMPLIANCE

Behavioral momentum refers to the tendency for behavior to persist following a change in environmental conditions. The greater the rate of reinforcement, the greater the behavioral momentum. The intervention for noncompliance consisted of issuing a sequence of commands with which the subject was very likely to comply (i.e., high-probability commands) immediately prior to issuing a low-probability command. In each of five experiments, the high-probability command sequence resulted in a “momentum” of compliant responding that persisted when a low-probability request was issued. Results showed the antecedent high-probability command sequence increased compliance and decreased compliance latency and task duration. “Momentum-like” effects were shown to be distinct from experimenter attention and to depend on the contiguity between the high-probability command sequence and the low-probability command.     

Canonical analysis of two convex polyhedral cones and applications

Canonical analysis of two convex polyhedral cones consists in looking for two vectors (one in each cone) whose square cosine is a maximum. This paper presents new results about the properties of the optimal solution to this problem, and also discusses in detail the convergence of an alternating least squares algorithm. The set of scalings of an ordinal variable is a convex polyhedral cone, which thus plays an important role in optimal scaling methods for the analysis of ordinal data. Monotone analysis of variance, and correspondence analysis subject to an ordinal constraint on one of the factors are both canonical analyses of a convex polyhedral cone and a subspace. Optimal multiple regression of a dependent ordinal variable on a set of independent ordinal variables is a canonical analysis of two convex polyhedral cones as long as the signs of the regression coefficients are given. We discuss these three situations and illustrate them by examples.     

A method of optimal scaling for multivariate ordinal data and its extensions

This paper develops a method of optimal scaling for multivariate ordinal data, in the framework of a generalized principal component analysis. This method yields a multidimensional configuration of items, a unidimensional scale of category weights for each item and, optionally, a multidimensional configuration of subjects. The computation is performed by alternately solving an eigenvalue problem and executing a quasi-Newton projection method. The algorithm is extended for analysis of data with mixed measurement levels or for analysis with a combined weighting of items. Numerical examples and simulations are provided. The algorithm is discussed and compared with some related methods.Earlier results of this research appeared in Saito and Otsu (1983). The authors would like to acknowledge the helpful comments and encouragement of the editor.