Response error and processing biases in confidence judgment

Previous studies showed that random error can explain overconfidence effects typically observed in the literature. One of these studies concluded that, after accounting for random error effects in the data, there is little support for cognitive‐processing biases in confidence elicitation. In this paper, we investigate more closely the random error explanation for overconfidence. We generated data from four models of confidence and then estimated the magnitude of random error in the data. Our results show that, in addition to the true magnitude of random error specified in the simulations, the error estimates are influenced by important cognitive‐processing biases in the confidence elicitation process. We found that random error in the response process can account for the degree of overconfidence found in calibration studies, even when that overconfidence is actually caused by other factors. Thus, the error models say little about whether cognitive biases are present in the confidence elicitation process. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The heterogeneity of attention‐deficit/hyperactivity disorder symptoms and conduct problems: Cognitive inhibition,emotion regulation,emotionality, and disorganized attachment

This study examined the contributions of several important domains of functioning to attention‐deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptoms and conduct problems. Specifically, we investigated whether cognitive inhibition, emotion regulation, emotionality, and disorganized attachment made independent and specific contributions to these externalizing behaviour problems from a multiple pathways perspective. The study included laboratory measures of cognitive inhibition and disorganized attachment in 184 typically developing children (M age = 6 years, 10 months, SD = 1.7). Parental ratings provided measures of emotion regulation, emotionality, and externalizing behaviour problems. Results revealed that cognitive inhibition, regulation of positive emotion, and positive emotionality were independently and specifically related to ADHD symptoms. Disorganized attachment and negative emotionality formed independent and specific relations to conduct problems. Our findings support the multiple pathways perspective on ADHD, with poor regulation of positive emotion and high positive emotionality making distinct contributions to ADHD symptoms. More specifically, our results support the proposal of a temperamentally based pathway to ADHD symptoms. The findings also indicate that disorganized attachment and negative emotionality constitute pathways specific to conduct problems rather than to ADHD symptoms.     

Test theory without an answer key

A general model is presented for homogeneous, dichotomous items when the answer key is not known a priori. The model is structurally related to the two-class latent structure model with the roles of respondents and items interchanged. For very small sets of respondents, iterative maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters can be obtained by existing methods. For other situations, new estimation methods are developed and assessed with Monte Carlo data. The answer key can be accurately reconstructed with relatively small sets of respondents. The model is useful when a researcher wants to study objectively the knowledge possessed by members of a culturally coherent group that the researcher is not a member of.This research was supported by NSF Grant No. SES-8320173 to the authors. We gratefully acknowledge comments and suggestions from John Boyd, Tarow Indow, and Kathy Maher as well as the editor and several anonymous referees.     

Setting the sales budget: An exploratory study

This article explores how the sales budget is set in a business organization. Findings from a longitudinal participant observation study revealed that the sales budget is considered of great importance to the organization as sales estimates serve as premises for planning of production and supply and new product developments. It was observed that the sales budget was based on a narrow, inner-directed perspective, almost looking away from important environmental driving forces such as competitors and customers. The findings also showed that individuals involved in the sales budgeting process behaved opportunistically, influencing the budgetary process and outcomes. Theoretical and normative implications are highlighted.     

Evaluating young children''s cognitive capacities through computer versus hand drawings

Young normal and handicapped children, aged 3 to 6 years, were taught to draw a scene of a house, garden and a sky with a computer drawing program that uses icons and is operated by a mouse. The drawings were rated by a team of experts on a 7-category scale. The children's computer- and hand-produced drawings were compared with one another and with results on cognitive, visual and fine motor tests. The computer drawing program made it possible for the children to accurately draw closed shapes, to get instant feedback on the adequacy of the drawing, and to make corrections with ease. It was hypothesized that these features would compensate for the young children's limitations in such cognitive skills, as memory, concentration, planning and accomplishment, as well as their weak motor skills. In addition, it was hypothesized that traditional cognitive ratings of hand drawings may underestimate young children's intellectual ability, because drawing by hand demands motor skills and memory, concentration and planning skills that are more developed than that actually shown by young children. To test the latter hypothesis, the children completed a training program in using a computer to make drawings. The results show that cognitive processes such as planning, analysis and synthesis can be investigated by means of a computer drawing program in a way not possible using traditional pencil and paper drawings. It can be said that the method used here made it possible to measure cognitive abilities "under the floor" of what is ordinarily possible by means of traditionally hand drawings.     

An automated test development of parallel tests from a seed test

Binary programming models are presented to generate parallel tests from an itembank. The parallel tests are created to match item for item an existing seed test and match user supplied taxonomic specifications. The taxonomic specifications may be either obtained from the seed test or from some other user requirement. An algorithm is presented along with computational results to indicate the overall efficiency of the process. Empirical findings based on an itembank for the Arithmetic Reasoning section of the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery are given.The Office of Naval Research, Program in Cognitive Science, N00014-87-C-0696 partially supported the work of Douglas H. Jones. The Rutgers Research Resource Committee of the Graduate School of Management partially supported the work of Douglas H. Jones and Ing-Long Wu. A Thomas and Betts research fellowship partially supported the work of Ing-Long Wu. The Human Resources Laboratory, United States Air Force, partially supported the work of Ronald Armstrong. The authors benefited from conversations with Dr. Wayne Shore, Operational Technologies, San Antonio, Texas. The order of authors' names is alphabetical and denotes equal authorship.     

记忆训练对改善少年、青年和老年人认知功能的作用

本工作采用“位置法”(method of loci)对24例少年、24例青年和22例老年被试进行了记忆训练研究。以毕生发展的观点比较认知训练对改善不同年龄人记忆的作用,进而探讨发展的认知功能储备能量的年龄差异和训练的迁移效应。结果表明认知干预措施可在一定程度上改善老年人的记忆,同时也显示了在发展的储能和对图形的迁移效应方面,老年人明显不如青、少年,而青年与少年则彼此相近。     

Developmental psychology in the real world: A paradigm of parent education

Twenty years ago, William Kessen, Greta Fein and I developed and tested a model of parent education, a model which involved variation in curricular content, didactic approaches, and child outcomes–experimentally contrasted. Our experience yielded some valuable lessons about the extent to which researchers can influence parents' behaviour, and parents their children's development. In the present article I suggest that these lessons might be useful for researchers now as they were for us then. I present some observations about the research that developmental psychologists have done in the intervening two decades and suggest that we could learn much by using such a model of parent education to answer questions about the effets of parents' behaviour on children's development. Carefully done, parent education studies can yield valuable information about many of the questions raised in recent correlational research. Parent training research can suggest hypotheses that can be tested with data collected non-interventively and analysed in causal model analyses–and vice versa. What is more, because one reason for studying parent effects is so that we can offer guidance to parents about rearing their children, this design has a particular advantage; it is both the medium and the message.