Response error and processing biases in confidence judgment

Previous studies showed that random error can explain overconfidence effects typically observed in the literature. One of these studies concluded that, after accounting for random error effects in the data, there is little support for cognitive‐processing biases in confidence elicitation. In this paper, we investigate more closely the random error explanation for overconfidence. We generated data from four models of confidence and then estimated the magnitude of random error in the data. Our results show that, in addition to the true magnitude of random error specified in the simulations, the error estimates are influenced by important cognitive‐processing biases in the confidence elicitation process. We found that random error in the response process can account for the degree of overconfidence found in calibration studies, even when that overconfidence is actually caused by other factors. Thus, the error models say little about whether cognitive biases are present in the confidence elicitation process. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Millon Clinical Multiaxial Inventory (MCMI) computer-generated diagnoses: How do they compare to clinician judgment?

During the past several decades, computers have achieved increasing prominence in psychological assessment procedures. This is particularly true for computer-based test interpretation and diagnosis. This study reports on a study designed to compare the accuracy of computer-based diagnoses with clinician-generated diagnoses. The Millon Clinical Multiaxial Inventory (MCMI) was administered to 151 consecutively admitted inpatients at a large private psychiatric hospital. The computer-generated diagnoses were compared with those generated by admitting psychiatrists. The results indicated that the MCMI diagnostic impressions underestimated the severity of depressive disorders when compared with clinician diagnoses on Axis I. Specifically, clinicians diagnosed major depression much more frequently than did the MCMI. In addition, clinicians diagnosed anxiety disorders much less frequently than did the MCMI.     

An evaluation of the reliability of probability judgments across response modes and over time

Despite the importance of probability assessment methods in behavioral decision theory and decision analysis, little attention has been directed at evaluating their reliability and validity. In fact, no comprehensive study of reliability has been undertaken. Since reliability is a necessary condition for validity, this oversight is significant. The present study was motivated by that oversight. We investigated the reliability of probability measures derived from three response modes: numerical probabilities, pie diagrams, and odds. Unlike previous studies, the experiment was designed to distinguish systematic deviations in probability judgments, such as those due to experience or practice, from random deviations. It was found that subjects assessed probabilities reliably for all three assessment methods regardless of the reliability measures employed. However, a small but statistically significant decrease over time in the magnitudes of assessed probabilities was observed. This effect was linked to a decrease in subjects overconfidence during the course of the experiment.     

Upward versus Downward Anchoring in Frequency Judgments of Social Facts

Frequency estimation of social facts in two methods of judgment elicitation was investigated. In the “narrow-range” condition, subjects answered questions in the format: “Out of 100 incidents, how many belong to category X?” In the “wide-range” condition, the frequency for the same event was assessed with respect to “Out of 10,000”. Judged frequencies in the wide-range condition were divided by 100, and were compared with the corresponding judgments in the narrow-range condition. Such comparisons were made for low-frequency and high-frequency events. Previous research has shown that, for low-frequency events, judged frequencies are proportionally greater in the narrow-range than in the wide-range condition. These results reflect cognitive processes of implicit anchoring, whereby judged frequencies lie close to small numbers within the response ranges provided. I call this process “downward anchoring,” and predicted that this tendency would be replicated in the present study. Moreover, I predicted that assessments about high-frequency events would evoke similar cognitive processes operating in the opposite direction. By such “upward anchoring,” judged frequencies would lie close to relatively larger numbers within the given response ranges. Consequently, I predicted that judged frequencies for high-frequency events would be proportionally greater in the wide-range condition than in the narrow-range condition. These predictions were confirmed.     

Reflections on segregating and assessing areas of competence

Various complexities that arise in the application of legal and/or clinical criteria to the actual assessment of competence/capacity are discussed, and a particular way of understanding the nature of such criteria is recommended.     

Calibration of sensory and cognitive judgments: A single model for both

In a recent issue of this journal, Winman and Juslin (34 , 135–148, 1993) present a model of the calibration of subjective probability judgments for sensory discrimination tasks. They claim that the model predicts a pervasive underconfidence bias observed in such tasks, and present evidence from a training experiment that they interpret as supporting the notion that different models are needed to describe judgment of confidence in sensory and in cognitive tasks. The model is actually part of the more comprehensive decision variable partition model of subjective probability calibration that was originally proposed in Ferrell and McGoey (Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 26 , 32–53, 1980). The characteristics of the model are described and it is demonstrated that the model does not predict underconfidence, that it is fully compatible with the overconfidence frequently found in calibration studies with cognitive tasks, and that it well represents experimental results from such studies. It is concluded that only a single model is needed for both types of task.     

时序信息提取机制的探索

对时序信息加工的经典研究是采用新近性判断范型,结果发现其提取机制是以新近性为基础的逆向串行搜索过程。本研究采用新近性判断范型和早远性判断范型对时序信息的提取机制进行了深入的考察,结果表明：（ｌ）提取时序信息既存在逆向串行搜索,又存在顺向串行搜索;（２）早远性判断和新近性判断任务对不同部分时序信息恢复的效应不同,其中早远性判断易化早远部分,新近性判断易化新近部分──表现为对相应部分辨别力的提高和正确反应潜伏期的缩短;（３）在不同的时序信息提取任务中,被试会根据具体条件进行反转反应。     

权力感对道德判断的影响及其理论解释:基于CNI模型的视角

权力感指个体对控制他人和自身的能力的感知。现有权力对道德判断的影响研究主要使用传统两难困境范式,围绕权力感影响主体道德判断的功利论倾向与道义论倾向展开,且研究观点尚未达成共识。由于传统两难困境范式的局限性,研究者开发了道德判断CNI模型探究权力感对道德判断的影响,该模型为两者之间的关系提供了新的解释路径。未来研究可关注CNI模型视角下不同类型权力感对道德判断的影响以及探讨特质性权力感与情境性权力感对个体道德判断差异的联合作用。     

Aggression-consistent, -inconsistent,and -irrelevant priming effects on selective exposure to media violence

Priming with aggressive concepts increases males' attraction to media violence. It was hypothesized that priming with schema-irrelevant concepts would decrease interest relative to the effects of schema-relevant concepts, whether or not the schema-relevant concepts were also schema-consistent. Thirty male undergraduates used lists including aggressive (schema-consistent and schema-relevant), positive or prosocial (schema-inconsistent yet relevant), or entirely neutral (schema-irrelevant) words to write short stories (priming task), then received an opportunity to select videotaped film clips for viewing. Subjects primed by aggressive word lists included more aggression, anger, fear, and violence in their stories than did those in the aggression-inconsistent and aggression-irrelevant conditions, whereas aggression-inconsistent priming yielded more fun, helping, and joy than did other conditions. Aggressively primed subjects expressed more interest in films containing violence and hostility than did neutrally primed subjects, whereas aggression-inconsistent priming did not differ significantly from either aggressive (schema-consistent) or neutral (schema-irrelevant) priming. Findings indicate that the aggressive priming activates aggressive concepts that make violence and hostility more salient to individuals. Because male undergraduates typically express interest in violence, enhanced salience leads to increased interest. © 1992 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

A Longitudinal Person-Centered Perspective on Positive and Negative Affect at Work

Abstract

This research examines how the direction and intensity of employee’s positive and negative affect at work combine within different profiles, and the relations between these profiles and theoretically-relevant predictors (psychological need satisfaction and supervisor autonomy support) and outcomes (work-family conflict, absenteeism, and turnover intentions). A total sample of 491 firefighters completed our measures initially, and 139 of those completed the same measures again four months later, allowing us to examine the stability of these affect profiles over time. Latent profile analyses and latent transition analyses revealed five identical profiles across the two measurements occasions: (1) Low Negative Affect Facilitators; (2) Moderately Low Positive Affect Incapacitators; (3) High Positive Affect Facilitators; (4) Very Low Positive Affect Incapacitators; and (5) Normative. Membership into Profiles 3, 4, and 5 was very stable over time. In contrast, Profiles 1 and 2 were associated with a highly unstable membership over time. The highest levels of work-family conflict, absenteeism, and turnover intentions were associated with the Very Low Positive Affect Incapacitators. In contrast, the lowest levels of turnover intentions were associated with the Low Negative Affect Facilitators and High Positive Affect Facilitators.