The comparison problem for approximating epistemic ideals

Some epistemologists think that the Bayesian ideals matter because we can approximate them. That is, our attitudes can be more or less close to the ones of our ideal Bayesian counterpart. In this paper, I raise a worry for this justification of epistemic ideals. The worry is this: In order to correctly compare agents to their ideal counterparts, we need to imagine idealized agents who have the same relevant information, knowledge, or evidence. However, there are cases in which one's ideal counterpart cannot have one's information, knowledge, or evidence. In these situations, agents cannot compare themselves to their ideal counterpart.     

高校教师教学水平评价概化理论预算限制下最佳样本量估计

使用“高校教师教学水平评价问卷”,要求566名学生对19名教师进行评价,对收集到的数据作不同的概化设计,包括t×i、（s：t）×i、（s：t）×（i：v）和（s：t）×（i：v）×o四种设计。基于概化理论,结合预算限制,统一LaGrange乘法公式,自行推导不同设计的最佳样本量公式,联合估计的方差分量,计算出不同设计的最佳样本量。结果表明：（1）LaGrange乘法统一公式表现出较强的通用性,能够适用于预算限制下各种概化设计;（2）评价场合是影响高校教师教学水平评价一个相当重要的因素;（3）（s：t）×（i：v）×o是高校教师教学水平评价概化理论预算限制下最优概化设计;（4）高校教师教学水平评价概化理论预算限制下,每位教师最佳评价学生人数为20人,每个维度最佳评价题目数为3题。     

中文版无手机恐惧量表的修订

该研究以国外学者Caglar Yildirim和Ana-Paula Correia于2015年编制的Nomophobia量表为基础,修订出了适用于国内的中文版无手机恐惧量表。研究首先使用探索性结构方程模型对量表结构进行初探; 其次使用项目反应模型进行项目分析并根据其分析结果对项目进行修改和筛选,最终形成正式版量表; 最后对正式版量表其进行信效度检验,并再次对量表题目进行项目分析。最终量表共16道题目,包括害怕无法获得信息、害怕失去便利、害怕失去联系和害怕失去网络连接4个维度; 总量表的Cronbach α系数为0.931,四维度的α系数分别为:0.789,0.816,0.887和0.896。CFA验证性结果显示量表结构较好(χ2/df=3.91,RMSEA=0.067,TLI=0.941,CFI=0.952,SRMR=0.04); 使用手机成瘾倾向量表作为校标的结果显示二者之间相关为0.626,效度良好。最终量表项目区分度在[1.734,4.806]之间,四维度区分度均值为2.1765,2.72,3.2925和3.883,项目难度参数在[-1.830,4.806]之间。综上结果显示该研究编制的无手机恐惧量表各项指标均达到了心理测量学要求,可供后续研究使用     

The Good Behavior Game: a best practice candidate as a universal behavioral vaccine

A behavioral vaccine provides an inoculation against morbidity or mortality, impacting physical, mental, or behavior disorders. An historical example of a behavioral vaccine is antiseptic hand washing to reduce childbed fever. In current society, issues with high levels of morbidity, such as substance abuse, delinquency, youth violence, and other behavioral disorders (multiproblems), cry out for a low-cost, widespread strategy as simple as antiseptic hand washing. Congruent research findings from longitudinal studies, twin studies, and other investigations suggest that a possibility might exist for a behavioral vaccine for multiproblem behavior. A simple behavioral strategy called the Good Behavior Game (GBG), which reinforces inhibition in a group context of elementary school, has substantial previous research to consider its use as a behavioral vaccine. The GBG is not a curriculum but rather a simple behavioral procedure from applied behavior analysis. Approximately 20 independent replications of the GBG across different grade levels, different types of students, different settings, and some with long-term follow-up show strong, consistent impact on impulsive, disruptive behaviors of children and teens as well as reductions in substance use or serious antisocial behaviors. The GBG, named as a best practice for the prevention of substance abuse or violent behavior by a number of federal agencies, is unique because it is the only practice implemented by individual teachers that is documented to have long-term effects. Presently, the GBG is only used in a small number of settings. However, near universal use of the GBG, in major political jurisdictions during the elementary years, could substantially reduce the incidence of substance use, antisocial behavior, and other adverse developmental or social consequences at a very modest cost, with very positive cost-effectiveness ratios.     

Predicting elections from the most important issue: A test of the take‐the‐best heuristic

We used the take‐the‐best heuristic to develop a model to forecast the popular two‐party vote shares in U.S. presidential elections. The model draws upon information about how voters expect the candidates to deal with the most important issue facing the country. We used cross‐validation to calculate a total of 1000 out‐of‐sample forecasts, one for each of the last 100 days of the ten U.S. presidential elections from 1972 to 2008. Ninety‐seven per cent of forecasts correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote. The model forecasts were competitive compared to forecasts from methods that incorporate substantially more information (e.g., econometric models and the Iowa Electronic Markets). The purpose of the model is to provide fast advice on which issues candidates should stress in their campaign. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Examining transactional influences between reading achievement and antisocially-behaving friends

The association between poorer academic outcomes and having antisocial friends is reliably demonstrated yet not well understood. Genetically sensitive designs uniquely allow for measuring genetic vulnerabilities and/or environmental risk in the association of antisocial friend behavior and poor school achievement, allowing for a better understanding of the nature of the association. This study included 233 pairs of twins from the Florida Twin Project on Reading. First, the role of antisocial friends as an environmental moderator of reading comprehension was examined. Antisocial friends significantly moderated the nonshared environmental variance in reading comprehension, with increased variation at lower levels of association with antisocial friends, with niche-picking indicated. Second, the role of reading comprehension as an environmental moderator of antisocial friends was examined. Reading comprehension significantly moderated the nonshared environmental variance in associating with antisocial friends, with increased variance at lower levels of reading comprehension and indication that common genetic influences contributed to higher reading achievement and better-behaved friends. In total, these results suggested reciprocal influences between reading achievement and antisocially-behaving friends. The impact of antisocial friends appeared to be limited in the extent to which they can undermine reading achievement, and high reading achievement appeared to support less association with antisocial friends.     

Exploring Differential Subgroup Functioning on SAT Writing Items: What Happens When English Is Not a Test Taker's Best Language?

The purpose of this study is to explore patterns in model-data fit related to subgroups of test takers from a large-scale writing assessment. Using data from the SAT, a calibration group was randomly selected to represent test takers who reported that English was their best language from the total population of test takers (N = 322,011). A reference scale for the items was constructed based on EBL responses. Response behaviors of test takers who reported that English was not their best language (ENBL) were examined in relationship to this reference scale. This study illustrates the use of differential subgroup analyses to identify patterns related to person misfit within subgroups, as well as subsets of items, that may affect the validity of writing scores for ENBL test takers. The methodology described here offers an approach that can be used to explore, understand, and improve the validity of scores obtained from ENBL test takers in large-scale writing assessments.     

Legacies of War: Asian American Women and War Trauma

ABSTRACT

Although Asian Americans are diverse in many ways, such as language, culture, ethnicity, religion, generational status, and more, many share a common experience: that of having experienced war first hand or being progeny of war survivors. World War II, the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Cambodian genocide, along with centuries of oppressive and authoritarian rule, have brought experiences of trauma, directly and historically, to the lives of many Asians. Subsequent experiences of migration and resettlement, as well as life in the United States as an ethnic minority, have also compounded the layers of oppression for many Asian Americans. Sexism in our cultures of origin, as well as sexism in the U.S., represents additional realities and traumas faced by Asian American women. In this article, we explore the experiences of war and subsequent traumas in the lives of Asian American women. We present a brief review of the current state of mental health as it relates to the experiences of war trauma, with the goal of providing a crucial contextual backdrop for our review of the best practices in mental health services to Asian American women. We review some of the best practices and conclude with a narrative reflection based on our own involvement in a small professional women’s group that yielded insights, discoveries, healing, and empowerment from the legacy of war trauma.     

留守妇女与儿童焦虑的代际传递:有调节的中介效应

基于发展系统论和社会提供论构建的有调节的中介模型,对322名留守、323名非留守母子进行为期半年共两次的追踪测查,考察家庭（母亲心理控制）、学校（教师支持）和同伴（朋友支持）系统对焦虑代际传递的影响机制。结果发现：（1）心理控制对留守、非留守母子焦虑的代际传递均起部分中介作用;（2）留守母子焦虑代际传递的中介效应受教师支持的调节,随教师支持水平的提高,中介效应变得不再显著;（3）留守、非留守母子焦虑代际传递的直接效应受朋友支持的调节,随朋友支持水平的提高,直接效应变得不再显著。未来研究可聚焦于母亲、教师、同伴的视角打破留守母子焦虑的代际传递。