Managers' variance investigation decisions: an experimental examination of probabilistic and outcome ambiguity

Information ambiguity is prevalent in organizations and may influence management decisions. This study examines, given imprecise probabilities or outcomes, how managers decide which department's performance to investigate further when they are provided with performance benchmarks expressed in numerical intervals. Seventy‐nine MBA students participated in two experiments involving investigation decisions. We presented participants with interval benchmarks of a firm's expenses. Being below or above the benchmark should have been seen as equally negative. We found that, when facing outcome ambiguity, our participants consistently preferred to investigate further those departments whose performance was described as having an ambiguous outcome (when the outcome's range was centered either below or above the interval benchmark). However, when facing probabilistic ambiguity, there were two predominant choice patterns: consistently choosing to investigate the department whose performance is described with an ambiguous probability, or consistently choosing to investigate the department with unambiguous performance. To gain further insight, we conducted a follow‐up study collecting written protocols of participants' reasons for making choices involving ambiguous performance information. The results show that our participants displayed similar decision‐making processes when facing outcome ambiguity and probabilistic ambiguity. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Benchmark‐based strategies in whole number line estimation

In this study, we used verbal protocols to identify whether adults spontaneously apply quartile‐based strategies or whether they need additional external support to use these strategies when solving a 0–1,000 number line estimation (NLE) task. Participants were assigned to one of three conditions based on the number of external benchmarks provided on the number line. In the bounded condition only the origin and endpoint were indicated, the mid‐point condition included an additional external benchmark at 50%, and in the quartile condition three additional external benchmarks at 25%, 50%, and 75% were specified. Firstly, participants in the bounded condition reported to spontaneously apply quartile‐based strategies to calibrate their estimates. Moreover, participants frequently relied on the external benchmarks for creating internal benchmarks at the mid‐point, quartiles, and even octiles of the number line. Secondly, overall estimation accuracy improved as the number of external benchmarks increased, and target numbers close to external benchmarks were estimated more accurately and with less variability. Thirdly, the use of a larger variety in benchmark‐based strategies was positively related to NLE accuracy. In summary, this study provides evidence that the NLE task induces more sophisticated strategy use in participants than initially anticipated.     

论卫生改革的改革

首先讨论我国卫生改革的评价问题,指出对改革的评价表面上似乎是个事实判断,但实际上是个价值判断,并列举数据说明改革引起的不公正后果。其次指出我国的卫生改革一开始就缺乏伦理基准,并详细论述了应该具有的伦理基准是什么。最后讨论了市场在医疗卫生事业的作用,以及对卫生改革的改革建议。     

Client Versus Clinicians’ Standards of Clinically Meaningful Change and the Effects of Treatment Expectations on Therapeutic Outcomes in Individuals With Posttraumatic Stress Disorder

There is limited research on the concordance between client perceptions and clinician standards of the degree of symptom change required to achieve meaningful therapeutic improvement. This was investigated in an adult sample (N = 147) who received trauma-focused cognitive-behavioral therapies for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). We examined whether clients’ benchmarks of change were related to actual outcomes and the relationship between client expectations and their treatment outcomes. Clients completed measures indexing the level of symptom reduction required (in their view) to reflect a benefit or recovery from treatment and treatment expectations. Actual PTSD severity was indexed pre- and posttreatment via self-report and clinician-administered interview. Results demonstrated that the amount of change clients said they required to experience a benefit or recovery was significantly larger than typical clinical research standards. Nonetheless, the majority of client benchmarks of change (79.7–81.8%) were consistent with clinical research standards of what constitutes benefit or recovery. Client benchmarks were generally positively correlated with their actual outcomes. Clients’ belief that treatment would be successful was associated with greater reductions in PTSD symptoms. These findings provide preliminary evidence that the standards used to determine clinically significant change are somewhat consistent with clients’ own perceptions of required symptom change.     

G.A.T.S. and universities: Implications for research

The likely impact of applying the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) to higher education are examined. GATS aims to “open up” services to competition: no preference can be shown to national or government providers. The consequences for teaching are likely to be that private companies, with degree-awarding powers, would be eligible for the same subsidies as public providers. Appealing to the inadequate recently introduced “benchmark” statements as proof of quality, they would provide a “bare bones” service at lower cost. Public subsidies would go: education being reduced to that minimum which could be packaged in terms of verifiable “learning outcomes”. The loss of “higher” aspirations, such education of critically-minded citizens of a democratic and civilised society would impoverish the university’s research culture which demands honesty and openness to public scrutiny. Most university research is substantially supported by public subsidy. Under GATS discipline, commercial providers of research services could be entitled to similar public subsidies. Publicly funded fundamental research would fade, leaving university research totally dependent for funds upon the good will of industry and commerce. Present problems, such as the suppression of unwelcome results and the use of questionable results to manipulate public opinion, would considerably increase. The public would lose a prime source of trustworthy knowledge, needed in political discourse, legal disputation, consumer protection and in many other contexts.     

幽门螺杆菌cagA基因多态性对临床结局的影响:东亚菌株和西方菌株

CagA蛋白是幽门螺杆菌最重要的毒力因子之一.目前已证实cagA基因存在东亚及西方两种亚型.幽门螺杆菌产生CagA蛋白,注入胃上皮细胞后在其羧基端EPIYA重复序列区进行酪氨酸磷酸化,进而与SHP-2酪氨酸磷酸化酶相互作用,参与上皮细胞的信号传导,导致细胞骨架结构的重排,引起细胞表面形状的改变和细胞动力的增强,造成细胞异常的增殖和运动,在胃癌的发生中起了主要作用.cagA基因的羧基端EPIYA重复序列被认为是区分东亚型和西方型菌株的分子标记,东亚型CagA与SHP-2亲和力大于西方型,最终影响着不同CagA+菌株感染的临床表现.     

Portfolio Selection from Multiple Benchmarks: A Goal Programming Approach to an Actual Case

This paper deals with benchmark‐based portfolio choice for buy‐and‐hold strategies of investing. Multiple benchmarks for returns are considered, which is more realistic than taking a unique benchmark – a unique aspiration difficult to select in practice among the various aspirations for returns that the investor has in mind. Portfolio selection with multiple benchmarks leads to a multi‐objective problem, which is addressed by mean value – stochastic goal programming. In particular, two benchmarks are considered, which involves two goals. Weights for goals depend on investor's preferences and Arrow's absolute risk aversion coefficients. An efficient frontier of portfolios is obtained. Advantages of this stochastic method in our context are as follows: (i) Mean value‐stochastic goal programming relies on classical utility theory under uncertainty and Arrow's absolute risk aversion, which ensures soundness and strictness, and (ii) the numerical model is easily solved by using available software such as mean–variance software. Numerical results are tabulated and discussed. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.