关于假设检验的争议:问题的澄清与解决

对传统的假设检验作为心理学实验的数据分析工具的评价涉及两个标准:首先是它是否合法,其次是它是否有用。置于频率学派统计学框架中的传统假设检验在逻辑上实际上是合法的;但它在效用性方面则有着备择假设不可证伪以及只能提供定性结论这两方面的缺陷。置信区间能够集中地改进和弥补这些缺陷。对传统假设检验使用中错误的澄清也使得研究者们开始重视PSI问题,这使得心理学实验的设计和数据分析从关注总体转向关注个体。     

Evolutionary preference/utility functions: A dynamic perspective

The collection of repeated measures in psychological research is one of the most common data collection formats employed in survey and experimental research. The behavioral decision theory literature documents the existence of the dynamic evolution of preferences that occur over time and experience due to learning, exposure to additional information, fatigue, cognitive storage limitations, etc. We introduce a Bayesian dynamic linear methodology employing an empirical Bayes estimation framework that permits the detection and modeling of such potential changes to the underlying preference utility structure of the respondent. An illustration of revealed stated preference analysis (i.e., conjoint analysis) is given involving students’ preferences for apartments and their underlying attributes and features. We also present the results of several simulations demonstrating the ability of the proposed procedure to recover a variety of different sources of dynamics that may surface with preference elicitation over repeated sequential measurement. Finally, directions for future research are discussed.The authors wish to acknowledge and thank the Editor, the Associate Editor, and two anonymous reviewers for their constructive and insightful comments. Duncan K.H. Fong’s work was sponsored in part by a research grant from the Smeal College.This revised article was published online in August 2005 with the PDF paginated correctly.     

Bayesian Risk Assessment in Genetic Testing for Autosomal Dominant Disorders with Age-Dependent Penetrance

Risk assessment is an essential component of genetic counseling and testing, and the accuracy of risk assessment is critical for decision making by consultands. However, it has been shown that genetic risk calculations may have high error rates in practice. Risk calculations for autosomal dominant disorders are frequently complicated by age-dependent penetrance and sensitivities of less than 100% in genetic testing. We provide methods of risk calculation for prototypical pedigrees of a family at risk for an autosomal dominant disorder with age-dependent penetrance. Our risk calculations include scenarios in which the sensitivity of genetic testing is less than 100%, and in which the sensitivity of genetic testing varies for different family members at risk. Our Bayesian methods permit autosomal dominant disease probabilities to be calculated accurately, taking into account all relevant information. Our methods are particularly useful for hereditary cancer syndromes, in which genetic testing can seldom achieve 100% sensitivity. Our methods can be applied to many different scenarios, including those where the sensitivity of genetic testing varies for different family members at risk. The content of this publication does not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Department of Health and Human Services, nor does mention of trade names, commercial products, or organizations imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.     

多项式加工树模型在再认启发式中的应用

摘 要 再认启发式利用再认线索进行决策。以往研究采用一致率、击中率、虚报率和区分指数来表示再认启发式使用,然而这些方法都存在局限。多项式加工树模型能够分离不同的认知加工过程,为了解决再认使用与知识使用的混淆,研究者提出一种多项式加工树模型 r-model 测量再认启发式的使用。本文将重 点介绍 r-model,具体包括 r-model 的内容、数据分析以及考虑个体差异的分层 r-model。最后,从 r-model 的模型修正和边界条件两个方面提出未来研究方向。 关键词 再认启发式;流畅启发式;多项式加工树;贝叶斯分层模型     

错失恐惧对大学生社交网络成瘾的影响:社交网络整合性使用与社交网络支持的中介作用

错失恐惧是社交网络成瘾的风险因素，但其中的作用机制并不清楚。本研究采用错失恐惧问卷、社交网络整合性使用量表、社交网络支持量表和中文社交网络成瘾量表，调查了重庆市三所高校的493名大一至大三的学生，探讨错失恐惧影响社交网络成瘾的机制。结果发现：（1）错失恐惧显著预测社交网络成瘾，错失恐惧水平越高，个体社交网络成瘾水平越高。（2）社交网络整合性使用在错失恐惧和社交网络成瘾之间起独立中介作用。（3）社交网络支持在错失恐惧和社交网络成瘾之间起独立中介作用。（4）社交网络整合性使用和社交网络支持在错失恐惧和社交网络成瘾之间起链式中介作用。研究结果表明，满足大学生基本心理需要、降低社交网络使用程度、提升现实社会支持可以有效预防社交网络成瘾。