“To hope was to expect”: The impact of perspective taking and forecast type on wishful thinking

When forecasting future outcomes, people tend to believe that the outcomes they want to happen are also likely to happen. Despite numerous attempts, few systematic factors have been identified that consistently and robustly reduce wishful thinking (WT) effects. Using elections and sporting event outcomes as contexts, three experiments examined whether taking the perspective of a political rival or opposing fan reduced WT effects. We also examined whether making deliberative (vs. intuitive-based) forecasts was associated with lower WT effects. Online adult samples of U.S. citizens from Mechanical Turk and U.S. college students provided their preferences and forecasts for the U.S. presidential election (Experiments 1 and 2) and a sports competition outcome (Experiment 3). Critically, some participants received perspective taking prompts immediately before providing forecasts. First, results revealed reductions in WT effects when participants engaged in perspective taking. Interestingly, this effect only emerged when intuitive-based forecasts were made first (Experiment 3). Second, intuitive-based forecasts revealed stronger evidence of WT effects. Finally, we found that perspective taking and forming forecasts deliberately promoted a shift in focus away from preferences and toward a consideration of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the entities (i.e., candidates and teams). Theoretical implications for understanding WT effects and applied implications for developing interventions are discussed.     

Social adjustment in the offspring of parents with bipolar affective disorder

The social adjustment of the adolescent offspring of parents with bipolar affective disorder (n=41) was compared to that of the offspring of parents with nonaffective psychiatric disorders (n=22) and the offspring of normal controls (n=26). In addition, the relationship between social adjustment and cyclothymia in offspring was determined. Social adjustment was assessed using the Life Activities Inventory, a new measure developed to assess social functioning in adolescents and young adults. Cyclothymia was assessed with the General Behavior Inventory. As a group, the offspring of bipolar parents did not differ significantly from either control group on social adjustment. However, the cyclothymic offspring of bipolar parents exhibited significantly poorer social adjustment than the noncyclothymic offspring of bipolars and the offspring of psychiatric and normal controls. These findings suggest that poor social functioning in the adolescent offspring of parents with bipolar illness may be associated with the early manifestations of affective disorder. In addition, these data indicate that despite its subsyndromal intensity, cyclothymia can result in significant social impairment.This study was supported in part by National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH) Research Grant MH-39782 to Daniel N. Klein and NIMH Grants MH-33083 and MH-37195 to Richard A. Depue.     

Bringing critical social psychology to the study of political polarization

The study of political polarization, in both its ideological and its affective expressions, has garnered significantly more interest over the last years. But despite recent research on the conceptualization, measurement, causes, and consequences of this socio-political phenomenon, and some tentative interventions to mitigate it, relevant new avenues remain surprisingly underdeveloped. Indeed, scholarship in the field of political polarization, mainly in the case of affective polarization, frequently uses cognitivist approaches to make sense of the growing antipathy between different social and political groups. However, the bulk of this work seems to overlook valuable insights into the psychology of intergroup conflict, stereotyping, prejudice reduction, and discourse studies. The aim of this paper is to underline the main gaps in the political polarization literature, to subsequently argue how knowledge linked to the tradition of critical social psychology can help in filling them. Ultimately, the article aims to contribute to the psychosocial study of political polarization and to the design, if necessary, of interventions to counter its detrimental consequences.     

Calibration of sensory and cognitive judgments: A single model for both

In a recent issue of this journal, Winman and Juslin (34 , 135–148, 1993) present a model of the calibration of subjective probability judgments for sensory discrimination tasks. They claim that the model predicts a pervasive underconfidence bias observed in such tasks, and present evidence from a training experiment that they interpret as supporting the notion that different models are needed to describe judgment of confidence in sensory and in cognitive tasks. The model is actually part of the more comprehensive decision variable partition model of subjective probability calibration that was originally proposed in Ferrell and McGoey (Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 26 , 32–53, 1980). The characteristics of the model are described and it is demonstrated that the model does not predict underconfidence, that it is fully compatible with the overconfidence frequently found in calibration studies with cognitive tasks, and that it well represents experimental results from such studies. It is concluded that only a single model is needed for both types of task.     

Opportunity,opportunism, and progress:Kairos in the rhetoric of technology

As the principle of timing or opportunity,kairos serves both as a powerful theme within technological discourse and as an analytical concept that explains some of the suasory force by which such discourse maintains itself and its position in our culture. This essay makes a case for a rhetoric of technology that is distinct from the rhetoric of science and illustrates the value of the classical vocabulary for understanding contemporary rhetoric. This case is made by examining images and models of technological change that underlie and justify the thematizations ofkairos that appear in so much technological discourse and by exploring the phenomenon of technological forecasting, in which the characterization and construction of moments in the present are crucial to the projection of the future. One example of forecasting is examined in detail: the Japanese Fifth Generation computer project, which illustrates the twin themes of opportunity and threat.     

Strategic Revenue Management under Uncertainty: A Case Study on Real Estate Projects in India

This paper proposes an approach for strategic revenue management under uncertainty for real estate projects. It integrates three modelling techniques: first, artificial neural network integrated support vector machines for forecasting the profit and loss‐making real estate residential projects; second, analytical network process approach using decision making trials and evaluation laboratory methodology for establishing interrelationships among factors; and third, multiobjective genetic algorithm approach for obtaining optimal numbers and types of apartments in a real estate project. We compare the respective revenues generated with the new number of apartments and price from the suggested revenue maximization model and that of the old practiced one through a case study of India. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Prospective and Concurrent Affective Dynamics in Self-Injurious Thoughts and Behaviors: An Examination in Young Adult Women

Affective dynamics, assessed using ecological momentary assessment (EMA), provide a nuanced understanding of within-person fluctuations of negative affect (NA) and positive affect (PA) in daily life. NA and PA dynamics have been associated with psychopathology and response to psychological treatments. NA and PA dynamics have been rarely studied concurrently in association with self-injurious thoughts and behaviors (SITB), transdiagnostic difficulties encountered regularly in clinical and community settings. Here we present EMA data from a large, diverse sample of young adult women with high rates of SITB to examine NA and PA dynamics (mean intensity, variability, and inertia). Specifically, we considered the prospective associations between past-year suicidal thoughts and past-year nonsuicidal self-injury and affective dynamics, as well as the concurrent associations between affective dynamics, EMA-reported suicidal thoughts, and EMA-reported urges for nonsuicidal self-injury. Results demonstrate that elevated mean NA and NA variability are robustly associated with all types of SITB assessed prospectively or concurrently. Interestingly, these associations were weakest for past-year nonsuicidal self-injurious behaviors, relative to past-year and concurrent suicidal or nonsuicidal self-injurious thoughts. Past-year suicidal thoughts further predicted increased NA inertia. Decreased PA inertia was associated with past-year nonsuicidal self-injury behavior, as well as concurrent EMA suicidal thoughts. We found no associations (prospective or concurrent) between SITB and mean PA intensity or PA variability. These results highlight the importance of understanding affective processes to develop real-world interventions to prevent nonsuicidal self-injury and suicidal behavior in daily life.     

Psychosis,symbol, affectivity 1: etiopathogenesis and treatment through analytical psychology

This is the first of two papers concerning our study into an integrated approach to psychotic disorders, conducted at the University of Palermo’s Psychiatry Unit Polyclinic over approximately 15 years. Here we will explore and reflect upon the acute psychotic condition mainly from a theoretical and conceptual perspective, while in the second paper we will explore the clinical perspective. From the point of view of psychopathology, and in the light of C.G. Jung’s conceptualization of analytical psychology, as well as calling on contributions from other authors from the systemic-relational and post-psychoanalytic field, we will clarify the ideas developed over these last few years by our team. From a more speculative perspective we will advance new interpretive hypotheses in an attempt to thoroughly understand the nature of the psychotic condition, both on a psychodynamic relational and a neuroscientific level. The paper describes how we revised our understanding of psychosis from a brain disease to a process aimed at the rearrangement of psychic functioning, as anticipated by John Weir Perry nearly 40 years ago.     

The role of empathy and social anxiety in Latinx adolescents' indirect peer aggression during the transition to high school

The primary purpose of this study was to evaluate the relationship between decreased empathy (i.e., cognitive and affective) and indirect and cyber peer aggression among Latinx adolescents during their transition to high school. Further, we examined the degree to which social anxiety moderated this relationship. Participants were 469 Latinx ninth graders, ages 13–17 years (M = 14.52, SD = 0.58; 58% girls). Adolescents completed the Revised Peer Experiences Questionnaire, Cyber Peer Experiences Questionnaire, Basic Empathy Scale, and Social Anxiety Scale for Adolescents at two different time points, 3 months apart. Hierarchical linear regression analyses revealed concurrent and prospective relationships between lower cognitive empathy and the perpetration of both indirect and cyber aggression. In addition, social anxiety moderated the concurrent associations between both types of empathy and both types of aggression perpetration. Results suggest that interventions that facilitate cognitive empathy and decrease social anxiety may help to reduce adolescents' indirect and cyber aggression toward peers throughout the high school transition.