Apocalyptic Argument and the Anticipation of Catastrophe: the Prediction of Risk and the Risks of Prediction

This essay proposes to extend the model of apocalyptic argument developedin my recent book Arguing the Apocalypse (OLeary, 1994) beyond the study ofreligious discourse, by applying this model to the debate over awell-publicized earthquake prediction that caused a widespread panic in theAmerican midwest in December, 1990. The first section of the essay willsummarize the essential elements of apocalyptic argument as I have earlierdefined them; the second section will apply the model to the case of the NewMadrid, Missouri, earthquake prediction, in order to demonstrate thatcertain patterns of reasoning characteristic of religious apocalyptic arepresent in the discourse over an anticipated local disaster. My ultimatepurpose is to show that predictions of global and local catastrophe mayserve as extreme cases that will illuminate the dynamics of predictiveargument in general. Thus my argument will seek to undercut Daniel Bellsdistinction between prophecy and prediction (Bell, 1973) by establishingthat these discourses share identifiable formal and substantivecharacteristics, and depend for their rhetorical effect on anxiety, hope,far, and excitement as modes of temporal anticipation.     

Posttraumatic Stress Symptoms of Chinese Rural Children and Adolescents Surviving the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake Assessed Using CRIES

Posttraumatic stress symptoms in Chinese rural children and adolescents were examined after the May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Analysis showed that three factors were identified, namely, avoidance, intrusion, and arousal, resembling those in the studies with Western samples. Gender differences in posttraumatic stress symptoms were not significant. Moderate negative correlation coefficients between posttraumatic stress symptom scores and mental health scores were found, indicating that the more severe the posttraumatic stress symptoms, the worse the person's mental health.     

5·12汶川地震后灾区教师主观幸福感的变化趋势及中介效应分析

·12汶川地震发生两个月后,对508名灾区的幼儿园、中小学教师进行测量,结合他们对地震前状况的回忆,考察其地震后主观幸福感的变化情况及其影响因素。结果表明：（1）与回忆得到的地震前感受相比,地震后灾区教师体验到主观幸福感水平显著降低。（2）极重灾区教师体验到的主观幸福感降低程度大于重灾区和轻灾区教师。（3）教师遭受的客观损失严重程度能显著预测其体验到的主观幸福感降低;而创伤后身心症状在其中起完全中介的作用,即创伤事件引发教师创伤后身心症状,而这些症状日趋严重,使其体验到的消极情感增加、主观幸福感降低。     

Religious coping,general coping strategies,perceived social support,PTSD symptoms,resilience, and posttraumatic growth among survivors of the 2010 earthquake in Haiti

This study examines the relationships between coping strategies, perceived social support, resilience, PTSD symptoms, and posttraumatic growth (PTG) in a sample of 256 survivors of the 2010 Haiti earthquake. The results of the bivariate analysis suggested a significant positive correlation between PTG and resilience, PTSD symptoms, perceived social support, positive religious coping, and active coping. There was a significant positive relationship between perceived social support and resilience and between resilience and active coping. PTSD symptoms were positively correlated with both positive and negative religious coping. Results of the multiple regression analysis indicated that positive religious coping, active coping, perceived social support, resilience, and PTSD symptoms accounted for 34% of the variance in the participants’ PTG. The strongest predictor of PTG was positive religious coping, followed by active coping, perceived social support, resilience, PTSD symptoms, and negative religious coping. Implications and recommendations for future research were discussed.     

One-year follow-up analysis of cognitive and psychological consequences among survivors of the Wenchuan earthquake

The catastrophic Wenchuan earthquake measuring 8.0 on the Richter scale occurred on May 12, 2008 in the West of the Sichuan basin in China and caused severe damage. A project was undertaken to examine the cognitive and psychological effects one year after the disaster among 2080 individuals in the local area. We evaluated the influence of gender, age, education level, and ethnic group on five aspects: work satisfaction, living satisfaction, health self-perception, psychological pressure, and psychological recovery. Male subjects had a better performance in all five aspects, which indicated that women were more affected. Subjects of different ethnic groups showed significantly different attitudes with respect to psychological pressure and psychological recovery. Significant differences for all the five aspects were also found in education level and age. The results showed that older people and those with a lower education level probably had more psychological problems. There were significant correlations between work satisfaction and living satisfaction, living satisfaction and health self-perception, living satisfaction and psychological recovery, and psychological pressure and psychosocial recovery. Living satisfaction and education level were significant predictors of psychological pressure. For psychological recovery, significant predictors were living satisfaction, age, work satisfaction, education level, and gender. The study findings indicated that government programs should provide more support for females, older people, those with a lower education level, and those in lower living conditions. Attention should be given not only to the psychological effects on each victim, but also to related issues such as work and living conditions to promote psychological wellbeing. Limitations of this study are addressed.     

5·12地震灾后四川和北京大学生价值观类型的对比

价值观作为社会意识形态的反映,会受到重大社会事件的影响。5·12汶川大地震以其突发性和巨大的破坏性特征成为影响价值观的可能因素之一。该研究以青年大学生为对象,以“价值观类型量表”为工具,关注地震后大学生价值观的变化特点,并对比北京、四川两地大学生价值观特点的异同。结果发现：1）灾后北京和四川两地大学生的价值观整体排住从高到低依次是：社会型、实用型、信仰型、科学型、政治型、审美型。2）社会型价值观已经成为大学生的主导价值观,且四川大学生更为重视。3）北京和四川大学生在震后的价值观系统均包含四个层次,其中在北京大学生的价值系统中,社会型是第一层次,实用型是第二层次,信仰型是第三层次,审美型、政治型和科学型合并为第四层次;而在四川大学生的价值系统中,社会型是第一层次,实用型和信仰型合并为第二层次,科学型是第三层次,政治型和审美型合并为第四层次。     

The effects of the Yazıköy‐epicentre Burdur earthquake (12 May 1971) on the residents of the village

The majority of the population in Turkey lives with the risk of earthquakes. The public is affected deeply by earthquakes socially, economically and psychologically. This study aims to examine the knowledge, attitudes, and perceptions of the survivors of the 1971 Burdur earthquake and its sociocultural effects. A total of 76 individuals took part in the study. The data for the research were collected through participant interviews with the use of the semi‐structured interview form. Findings indicate that the participants are not sufficiently knowledgeable about earthquakes, that their knowledge is not based on scientific grounds, that their attitudes towards earthquakes reflect fatalistic and local cultural elements, and that their socio‐economic status plays an important role in their perspectives on earthquakes. The findings of this study are thought to form a basis for researchers for future study.     

汶川地震8.5年后青少年身心状况研究

汶川地震8.5年后,对地震极重灾区的2291名青少年进行问卷调查,考察其创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)、抑郁、创伤后成长(PTG)和生活满意度等身心反应的现状及其共存形态。结果发现:(1)地震发生8.5年后4.75%的青少年有明显的PTSD症状,29.98%的青少年有明显的抑郁症状,其中女生、少数民族学生、高年级学生的症状水平更高;46.13%的青少年报告其出现了明显的PTG,其中女生和少数民族学生的PTG水平更高;青少年的生活满意度较低,其中初一年级显著高于其他年级,但性别和民族差异不显著;(2)青少年的PTSD与抑郁呈显著正相关、与生活满意度呈显著负相关、与PTG相关不显著,抑郁与PTG和生活满意度呈显著负相关,PTG与生活满意度呈显著正相关;(3)青少年的PTSD、抑郁、PTG和生活满意度之间具有共存的形态,具体表现为成长组(32.6%)、低症状组(39.4%)、症状-成长共存组(5.8%)、中等症状共病组(17.8%)和高度症状共病组(4.4%)等5种类别。     

Early Eye Movement Desensitisation and Reprocessing (EMDR) intervention in a disaster mental health care context

‘Early psychological intervention’ is defined as commencing treatment within three months of the traumatic event, with the aim to prevent or treat posttraumatic stress disorder, ongoing distress or acute stress disorder. In natural disaster situations, specific issues may limit the amount of time available for treatment and the possibility of interventions. Eye Movement Desensitisation and Reprocessing (EMDR) can be used without regard to these limits. The aim of the study is to evaluate the effects of EMDR, Recent Traumatic Episode Protocol (R-TEP) provided within three months of the traumatic event to a large sample of individuals exposed to the earthquake that hit Emilia Romagna Region (Northern Italy) in 2012. This study is based on a retrospective review of medical records collected during the activities of psychological and psychosocial unit in the immediate aftermath of earthquake. In total, 529 participants completed the Impact of Event Scale Revised (IES-R) (pre e post treatment). In order to provide a comparison similar to a waitlist-like control group, a method of cohort analysis was applied. In addition, possible time dependent effect was tested. ET (early-treated sample, participants treated within one month after the earthquake) and LT (late-treated sample, participants treated after the first month from the earthquake) reported at post-treatment an improvement to a level below the IES-R cutoff (65.8% of the ET sample and 64.02% of the LT sample). Control group analogue and time-outcome correlation suggest that positive changes in symptoms were likely due to the treatment provided and not merely to the time lapse from the traumatic event. The results of this study suggest that EMDR is a viable treatment option in response to a disaster crisis and in reducing psychological distress of acutely traumatized individuals within the context of a natural disaster.     

Natural Disasters in Indonesia: Relationships Among Posttraumatic Stress,Resource Loss,Depression, Social Support,and Posttraumatic Growth

ABSTRACT

Indonesia is at significant risk for catastrophic natural disasters, including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and tsunamis. Few studies have examined psychological functioning following disaster exposure in Indonesia, the fourth most populous country in the world. This study assesses variables associated with posttraumatic stress and posttraumatic growth following a devastating earthquake in Central Java that ranks as one of the costliest in Indonesia. The participants were 85 men and women living in rural farming villages. Almost all (95%) experienced major home damage or total home destruction. Posttraumatic stress symptoms were associated with resource loss, depression, and concerns about future earthquakes. Participants reported moderate posttraumatic growth. Posttraumatic growth was associated with energy resource loss and social support. The findings support conservation of resources stress theory. The implications of the findings for intervention and recovery programs are discussed.