Individual differences in reverse Hindsight bias: I never thought something like chernobyl would happen. Did I?

Hindsight bias was studied in the context of the accident in the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, which took place on April 26th 1986. An individual difference factor which relates to the motivation to process information, need for cognition, was expected to moderate the occurrence of hindsight bias. Probability estimates of many casualties due to the use of nuclear power in The Netherlands were obtained from 212 individuals two months before the accident in Chernobyl. These estimates were compared with similar estimates made in hindsight by the same individuals five months after the accident. Loglinear Analyses reveal a systematic hindsight bias. However, the direction of the bias was contrary to expectations. In hindsight, individuals gave lower probabilities than they actually did two months before the Chernobyl accident. These results reveal a reverse hindsight bias. As hypothesized, need for cognition moderates hindsight bias: individuals low and medium in need for cognition express a systematic reverse hindsight bias, while individuals high in need for cognition do not. High need for cognition individuals also show higher literal consistency between the two measurements, which supports a memory explanation of the moderating effect of need for cognition.     

The accuracy of maternal self-reports: Agreement between reports on a computer simulation compared with observed behaviour in the supermarket

The validity of maternal self-reports about their parenting behaviour is evaluated with two studies. In both studies, the mothers were observed shopping in the supermarket with their 2-year-old children. One week later they responded to multiple choice questions on a computer that simulated the experience of shopping with their children. The exact agreement between the two types of data was then assessed. The results from the first study involving 28 mothers revealed some agreement, although it was generally low. In an effort to increase the level of agreement, the computer simulation was revised to allow multiple responses and to clarify some of the simulation vigenettes. A replication study resulted in a considerably higher level of agreement for 22 mothers. Implications of this method for researchers and practitioners are discussed.     

Psychological conceptions of randomness

This article presents a critique of the concept of randomness as it occurs in the psychological literature. The first section of our article outlines the significance of a concept of randomness to the process of induction; we need to distinguish random and non-random events in order to perceive lawful regularities and formulate theories concerning events in the world. Next we evaluate the psychological research that has suggested that human concepts of randomness are not normative. We argue that, because the tasks set to experimental subjects are logically problematic, observed biases may be an artifact of the experimental situation and that even if such biases do generalise they may not have pejorative implications for induction in the real world. Thirdly we investigate the statistical methodology utilised in tests for randomness and find it riddled with paradox. In a fourth section we find various branches of scientific endeavour that are stymied by the problems posed by randomness. Finally we briefly mention the social significance of randomness and conclude by arguing that such a fundamental concept merits and requires more serious considerations.     

Work-family spillover of daily positive affect onto performance: The moderating role of domain identity salience

IntroductionA number of linking mechanisms between work and family domains have been studied, but one key mechanism has received little attention: the cross-domain influence of positive affect on performance.ObjectiveThis study examines the work-family spillover of positive affect at work onto performance in the family and, inversely, of positive affect in the family onto performance at work. Drawing upon the work-family enrichment theory (Greenhaus & Powell, 2006), we hypothesized that work and family identity salience moderate the work-to-family and family-to-work relationships between originating domain positive affect and receiving domain performance.MethodA sample of 124 Canadian workers completed a pre-diary survey and daily surveys during 10 consecutive days.ResultsMultilevel analyses showed an effect of daily positive affect in the family on daily performance at work, but no significant effect of daily positive affect at work on daily performance in the family. Furthermore, family identity salience facilitated the work-to-family and family-to-work spillover, whereas work identity salience had no significant moderating effect.ConclusionThe results extend the happy-productive worker thesis to the work-family interface by highlighting that positive affect contextualized in the family is related to performance at work.     

An evaluation of the reliability of probability judgments across response modes and over time

Despite the importance of probability assessment methods in behavioral decision theory and decision analysis, little attention has been directed at evaluating their reliability and validity. In fact, no comprehensive study of reliability has been undertaken. Since reliability is a necessary condition for validity, this oversight is significant. The present study was motivated by that oversight. We investigated the reliability of probability measures derived from three response modes: numerical probabilities, pie diagrams, and odds. Unlike previous studies, the experiment was designed to distinguish systematic deviations in probability judgments, such as those due to experience or practice, from random deviations. It was found that subjects assessed probabilities reliably for all three assessment methods regardless of the reliability measures employed. However, a small but statistically significant decrease over time in the magnitudes of assessed probabilities was observed. This effect was linked to a decrease in subjects overconfidence during the course of the experiment.     

Human d-amphetamine drug discrimination: methamphetamine and hydromorphone.

Standard measures of subjective and discriminative effects of drugs were compared in 5 human volunteers. Subjects responded on a second-order color-tracking procedure, where 30 mg of d-amphetamine served as a discriminative stimulus for one response and its absence as the discriminative stimulus for another response. Self-reported subjective effects were assessed concurrently using the single-dose questionnaire, subscales of the Addiction Research Center Inventory, and several analogue rating scales. On different days following discrimination acquisition, varying doses of d-amphetamine, methamphetamine, and hydromorphone were administered. In these test sessions, either response was reinforced. Methamphetamine and d-amphetamine occasioned dose-related increases in d-amphetamine appropriate responding; hydromorphone did not. Methamphetamine and d-amphetamine occasioned dose-related increases in reports of the drug received being most like "speed"; hydromorphone occasioned dose-related increases in reports of the drug received being most like "dope." All three drugs occasioned dose-related increases in reports of drug liking, and increases in the morphine-benzedrine group, amphetamine, and benzedrine group scales of the Addiction Research Center Inventory. This experiment demonstrated that although explicit discriminative control of behavior by a drug may covary with drug identification, it does not necessarily covary with other self-reported subjective effects. Thus, the complementary nature of the data provided by drug discrimination and standard subjective-effects measures provides quantitative and qualitative data useful in studying both relatively novel compounds and the behavioral biology of psychoactive drugs in general.     

The pain behavior scale: Modification and validation for outpatient use

The present study investigated the validity of an inpatient pain behavior rating scale modified for outpatient use. A series of 43 consecutive outpatients referred for evaluation of chronic pain was examined using the Pain Behavior Scale (PBS) and other psychometric instruments. Analyses revealed significantly higher Pain Behavior Scale scores for low back and multiple pain-site groups. The results also indicated a high degree of internal consistency of the scale. A multiple regression analysis, predicting observed pain behavior from reported pain behavior, indicated that decreased activity accounted for 32% of the variance in the PBS score. A similar regression for pain experience found that the pain level and the sensory scale score on the McGill Pain Questionnaire accounted for 39% of the PBS variance. Psychological characteristics including disease conviction, self-control, depression, and anxiety explained 45% of the variability in the PBS score. Thus, the scale is related to pain intensity, interference with activities, and a variety of psychological characteristics. The scale provides a measure of observable pain behavior that is also relatively independent of these clinical data sources. The Pain Behavior Scale as modified for outpatient use provides a brief index of pain behavior with potential use in the comprehensive evaluation of the pain patient.     

Confidence depends on level of aggregation

The credible intervals that people set around their point estimates are typically too narrow (cf. Lichtenstein, Fischhoff, & Phillips, 1982). That is, a set of many such intervals does not contain the actual values of the criterion variables as often as it should given the probability assigned to this event for each estimate. The typical interpretation of such data is that people are overconfident about the accuracy of their judgments. This paper presents data from two studies showing the typical levels of overconfidence for individual estimates of unknown quantities. However, data from the same subjects on a different measure of confidence for the same items, their own global assessment for the set of multiple estimates as a whole, showed significantly lower levels of confidence and overconfidence than their average individual assessment for items in the set. It is argued that the event and global assessments of judgment quality are fundamentally different and are affected by unique psychological processes. Finally, we discuss the implications of a difference between confidence in single and multiple estimates for confidence research and theory.     

Individual values and well-being: The moderating role of personality traits

This study examined the role of values, traits and their interactions for the experience of eudaimonic and hedonic well-being. First wave studies on value and well-being relationships yielded inconsistent results suggesting that these relationships are moderated by other factors, possibly by personality traits. We asked a representative sample of adult Poles (N = 1161) to report on their personality traits (according to five-factor theory), values (conceptualised by Schwartz) and well-being (hedonic and eudaimonic). Results showed, that higher Extraversion, Emotional stability, Intellect, Agreeableness and Conscientiousness were related to higher well-being, confirming and expanding claims from personality theory of subjective well-being: stable predispositions are related not only to subjective, but also to eudaimonic well-being. Values expressing Openness to change, Self-transcendence and Conservation were also positively correlated with well-being, while the role of Self-enhancement was unclear. This confirmed that growth needs expressed in Openness to change and Self-transcendence values promote well-being, but also that values expressing deficiency needs can be positively related to well-being, possibly in specific circumstances. Finally, the two levels of personality (traits and values) proved to have a joint relationship to well-being: higher Conscientiousness and Agreeableness enhanced positive relationships of Openness to change and Self-transcendence with some aspects of well-being.     

The relationship between mental toughness and subjective mental illness recovery

Recently there has been an increasing interest in subjective mental illness recovery, and it has been recognised that there is an important role for characteristics such as self-efficacy and locus of control. Mental toughness describes a set of characteristics important for dealing with stress and pressure, and is comprised of challenge, commitment, control of emotion, control of life, confidence in abilities, and interpersonal confidence. The current study explored relationships between mental toughness and subjective mental illness recovery. Seventy-seven participants (nineteen males and fifty-eight females, the majority of which were young adults aged 18–21 years) who had previously recovered from, or were currently recovering from a mental illness (self-reported) completed questionnaire measures of mental toughness and subjective mental illness recovery. Mental toughness had a positive significant relationship to recovery, with particular roles for commitment and confidence in abilities. The findings are discussed in terms of implications for recovery-oriented practice, intervention, and measurement. Further research should examine the role of mental toughness in different aspects of subjective recovery, and also explore relationships with objective measures of recovery.