Individual differences in reverse Hindsight bias: I never thought something like chernobyl would happen. Did I?

Hindsight bias was studied in the context of the accident in the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, which took place on April 26th 1986. An individual difference factor which relates to the motivation to process information, need for cognition, was expected to moderate the occurrence of hindsight bias. Probability estimates of many casualties due to the use of nuclear power in The Netherlands were obtained from 212 individuals two months before the accident in Chernobyl. These estimates were compared with similar estimates made in hindsight by the same individuals five months after the accident. Loglinear Analyses reveal a systematic hindsight bias. However, the direction of the bias was contrary to expectations. In hindsight, individuals gave lower probabilities than they actually did two months before the Chernobyl accident. These results reveal a reverse hindsight bias. As hypothesized, need for cognition moderates hindsight bias: individuals low and medium in need for cognition express a systematic reverse hindsight bias, while individuals high in need for cognition do not. High need for cognition individuals also show higher literal consistency between the two measurements, which supports a memory explanation of the moderating effect of need for cognition.     

Psychological conceptions of randomness

This article presents a critique of the concept of randomness as it occurs in the psychological literature. The first section of our article outlines the significance of a concept of randomness to the process of induction; we need to distinguish random and non-random events in order to perceive lawful regularities and formulate theories concerning events in the world. Next we evaluate the psychological research that has suggested that human concepts of randomness are not normative. We argue that, because the tasks set to experimental subjects are logically problematic, observed biases may be an artifact of the experimental situation and that even if such biases do generalise they may not have pejorative implications for induction in the real world. Thirdly we investigate the statistical methodology utilised in tests for randomness and find it riddled with paradox. In a fourth section we find various branches of scientific endeavour that are stymied by the problems posed by randomness. Finally we briefly mention the social significance of randomness and conclude by arguing that such a fundamental concept merits and requires more serious considerations.     

Work-family spillover of daily positive affect onto performance: The moderating role of domain identity salience

IntroductionA number of linking mechanisms between work and family domains have been studied, but one key mechanism has received little attention: the cross-domain influence of positive affect on performance.ObjectiveThis study examines the work-family spillover of positive affect at work onto performance in the family and, inversely, of positive affect in the family onto performance at work. Drawing upon the work-family enrichment theory (Greenhaus & Powell, 2006), we hypothesized that work and family identity salience moderate the work-to-family and family-to-work relationships between originating domain positive affect and receiving domain performance.MethodA sample of 124 Canadian workers completed a pre-diary survey and daily surveys during 10 consecutive days.ResultsMultilevel analyses showed an effect of daily positive affect in the family on daily performance at work, but no significant effect of daily positive affect at work on daily performance in the family. Furthermore, family identity salience facilitated the work-to-family and family-to-work spillover, whereas work identity salience had no significant moderating effect.ConclusionThe results extend the happy-productive worker thesis to the work-family interface by highlighting that positive affect contextualized in the family is related to performance at work.     

An evaluation of the reliability of probability judgments across response modes and over time

Despite the importance of probability assessment methods in behavioral decision theory and decision analysis, little attention has been directed at evaluating their reliability and validity. In fact, no comprehensive study of reliability has been undertaken. Since reliability is a necessary condition for validity, this oversight is significant. The present study was motivated by that oversight. We investigated the reliability of probability measures derived from three response modes: numerical probabilities, pie diagrams, and odds. Unlike previous studies, the experiment was designed to distinguish systematic deviations in probability judgments, such as those due to experience or practice, from random deviations. It was found that subjects assessed probabilities reliably for all three assessment methods regardless of the reliability measures employed. However, a small but statistically significant decrease over time in the magnitudes of assessed probabilities was observed. This effect was linked to a decrease in subjects overconfidence during the course of the experiment.     

初中生学业成就动机量表的编制

本研究根据我国初中生的实际编制了一套测量初中生学业成就动机的自陈式量表。该量表由外部行为表现和内部心理因素两个分量表构成。行为表现分置表包括主动性、行为策略和坚持性三个子量表,心理因素分量表包括能力、兴趣、目的、知识价值观四个子量表。测题分析和测验分析的结果表明此量表具有较高的信度和效度,能用于鉴别初中生学业成就动机的水平。     

Confidence depends on level of aggregation

The credible intervals that people set around their point estimates are typically too narrow (cf. Lichtenstein, Fischhoff, & Phillips, 1982). That is, a set of many such intervals does not contain the actual values of the criterion variables as often as it should given the probability assigned to this event for each estimate. The typical interpretation of such data is that people are overconfident about the accuracy of their judgments. This paper presents data from two studies showing the typical levels of overconfidence for individual estimates of unknown quantities. However, data from the same subjects on a different measure of confidence for the same items, their own global assessment for the set of multiple estimates as a whole, showed significantly lower levels of confidence and overconfidence than their average individual assessment for items in the set. It is argued that the event and global assessments of judgment quality are fundamentally different and are affected by unique psychological processes. Finally, we discuss the implications of a difference between confidence in single and multiple estimates for confidence research and theory.     

Individual values and well-being: The moderating role of personality traits

This study examined the role of values, traits and their interactions for the experience of eudaimonic and hedonic well-being. First wave studies on value and well-being relationships yielded inconsistent results suggesting that these relationships are moderated by other factors, possibly by personality traits. We asked a representative sample of adult Poles (N = 1161) to report on their personality traits (according to five-factor theory), values (conceptualised by Schwartz) and well-being (hedonic and eudaimonic). Results showed, that higher Extraversion, Emotional stability, Intellect, Agreeableness and Conscientiousness were related to higher well-being, confirming and expanding claims from personality theory of subjective well-being: stable predispositions are related not only to subjective, but also to eudaimonic well-being. Values expressing Openness to change, Self-transcendence and Conservation were also positively correlated with well-being, while the role of Self-enhancement was unclear. This confirmed that growth needs expressed in Openness to change and Self-transcendence values promote well-being, but also that values expressing deficiency needs can be positively related to well-being, possibly in specific circumstances. Finally, the two levels of personality (traits and values) proved to have a joint relationship to well-being: higher Conscientiousness and Agreeableness enhanced positive relationships of Openness to change and Self-transcendence with some aspects of well-being.     

Infants’ vocalizations at 6 months predict their productive vocabulary at one year

Long before their first words, children communicate by using speech-like vocalizations. These protophones might be indicative of infants’ later language development. We here examined infants’ (n = 56) early vocalizations at 6 months (vocal reactivity scale of the IBQ-R) as a predictor of their expressive and receptive language at 12 months (German version of the CDI). Regression analyses revealed vocalizations to significantly predict expressive, but not receptive language. Our findings in German-learning 6-month-olds extend previous predictive evidence of early vocalizations reported for older infants. Together these findings are informative in light of early assessments monitoring typical and atypical language development.