Individual differences in reverse Hindsight bias: I never thought something like chernobyl would happen. Did I?

Hindsight bias was studied in the context of the accident in the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, which took place on April 26th 1986. An individual difference factor which relates to the motivation to process information, need for cognition, was expected to moderate the occurrence of hindsight bias. Probability estimates of many casualties due to the use of nuclear power in The Netherlands were obtained from 212 individuals two months before the accident in Chernobyl. These estimates were compared with similar estimates made in hindsight by the same individuals five months after the accident. Loglinear Analyses reveal a systematic hindsight bias. However, the direction of the bias was contrary to expectations. In hindsight, individuals gave lower probabilities than they actually did two months before the Chernobyl accident. These results reveal a reverse hindsight bias. As hypothesized, need for cognition moderates hindsight bias: individuals low and medium in need for cognition express a systematic reverse hindsight bias, while individuals high in need for cognition do not. High need for cognition individuals also show higher literal consistency between the two measurements, which supports a memory explanation of the moderating effect of need for cognition.     

Psychological conceptions of randomness

This article presents a critique of the concept of randomness as it occurs in the psychological literature. The first section of our article outlines the significance of a concept of randomness to the process of induction; we need to distinguish random and non-random events in order to perceive lawful regularities and formulate theories concerning events in the world. Next we evaluate the psychological research that has suggested that human concepts of randomness are not normative. We argue that, because the tasks set to experimental subjects are logically problematic, observed biases may be an artifact of the experimental situation and that even if such biases do generalise they may not have pejorative implications for induction in the real world. Thirdly we investigate the statistical methodology utilised in tests for randomness and find it riddled with paradox. In a fourth section we find various branches of scientific endeavour that are stymied by the problems posed by randomness. Finally we briefly mention the social significance of randomness and conclude by arguing that such a fundamental concept merits and requires more serious considerations.     

Work-family spillover of daily positive affect onto performance: The moderating role of domain identity salience

IntroductionA number of linking mechanisms between work and family domains have been studied, but one key mechanism has received little attention: the cross-domain influence of positive affect on performance.ObjectiveThis study examines the work-family spillover of positive affect at work onto performance in the family and, inversely, of positive affect in the family onto performance at work. Drawing upon the work-family enrichment theory (Greenhaus & Powell, 2006), we hypothesized that work and family identity salience moderate the work-to-family and family-to-work relationships between originating domain positive affect and receiving domain performance.MethodA sample of 124 Canadian workers completed a pre-diary survey and daily surveys during 10 consecutive days.ResultsMultilevel analyses showed an effect of daily positive affect in the family on daily performance at work, but no significant effect of daily positive affect at work on daily performance in the family. Furthermore, family identity salience facilitated the work-to-family and family-to-work spillover, whereas work identity salience had no significant moderating effect.ConclusionThe results extend the happy-productive worker thesis to the work-family interface by highlighting that positive affect contextualized in the family is related to performance at work.     

An evaluation of the reliability of probability judgments across response modes and over time

Despite the importance of probability assessment methods in behavioral decision theory and decision analysis, little attention has been directed at evaluating their reliability and validity. In fact, no comprehensive study of reliability has been undertaken. Since reliability is a necessary condition for validity, this oversight is significant. The present study was motivated by that oversight. We investigated the reliability of probability measures derived from three response modes: numerical probabilities, pie diagrams, and odds. Unlike previous studies, the experiment was designed to distinguish systematic deviations in probability judgments, such as those due to experience or practice, from random deviations. It was found that subjects assessed probabilities reliably for all three assessment methods regardless of the reliability measures employed. However, a small but statistically significant decrease over time in the magnitudes of assessed probabilities was observed. This effect was linked to a decrease in subjects overconfidence during the course of the experiment.     

Aging families: The personal, permanent group

Later life families present a very special instance of group psychotherapy with older adults. This paper describes the challenges faced by later life families, including major life events to which multiple family members must adapt, and the increasing dependency of some elderly members. A developmental framework for later life problems is offered as a therapy frame useful to families. Key aspects of therapy process with later life families are also presented. Goals, strategies, structures of therapy, and the therapist’s role are all shaped by the long and intimate history of the members of this special form of group.     

教育因素对认知功能年老化过程的影响

应用言语－操作和人机对话两种方式共１２项作业,完成年龄和教育因素对认知功能影响的研究,被试共７３４人,４６－７５岁．结果表明：（１）年龄和教育因素对认知成绩的影响因作业而异,分别为年龄影响明显（图象自由回忆和无意义图形再认）、教育因素影响明显（卡片分类、图象分类和矩阵填图）、年龄和教育因素影响均明显（符号数字、词对联想学习、听觉和视觉数字广度）或均不明显（心算）．（２）四项非词语性作业速度明显受年龄和教育因素的双重影响．     

与年龄相关的认知速度减慢及学习改善过程

该工作应用人机对话方式完成心算、符号数字、数字鉴别和计数四项作业认知速度年老减慢及学习改善过程的研究,被试３５０人,４６—７５岁。研究结果表明：四项认知作业速度随年老进行性减慢;然而,老年人经学习训练认知作业速度可明显改善。上述变化程度与作业所需时间有密切关系,提示年老过程中枢信息加工过程速度的减慢快于外周感觉─运动过程速度的减慢,学习改善作用也可能主要是中枢过程速度的提高。     

非词语性认知作业速度年老衰减规律的数学描述

应用两维年龄多作业回归分析方法,研究了四项非词语性认知作业速度年老衰减规律的数学描述形式。被试共７３４名,４６─７５岁。结果表明：五个年老组与４６─５０岁组作业时间之间呈线性函数关系,其线性方程的斜率值随年老组的增龄而增大。     

Personal and community sustainability

Many community members reduce their community involvements as they more through midlife. This may be true for community psychologists as well. Yet research evidence suggests that-intellectually, at least-we can function at or near peak levels through our 80s and 90s. How then might we best sustain ourselves and our work through our entire lives? Answers may lie in full exercise of all capacities, in strong support networks, and in actions that meet one's deeper needs, “the needs of the soul”. These same principles may sustain community life as well, for some key principles of personal and community sustainability may be similar. Applications of these ideas to communities and to community psychology are discussed.     

Confidence depends on level of aggregation

The credible intervals that people set around their point estimates are typically too narrow (cf. Lichtenstein, Fischhoff, & Phillips, 1982). That is, a set of many such intervals does not contain the actual values of the criterion variables as often as it should given the probability assigned to this event for each estimate. The typical interpretation of such data is that people are overconfident about the accuracy of their judgments. This paper presents data from two studies showing the typical levels of overconfidence for individual estimates of unknown quantities. However, data from the same subjects on a different measure of confidence for the same items, their own global assessment for the set of multiple estimates as a whole, showed significantly lower levels of confidence and overconfidence than their average individual assessment for items in the set. It is argued that the event and global assessments of judgment quality are fundamentally different and are affected by unique psychological processes. Finally, we discuss the implications of a difference between confidence in single and multiple estimates for confidence research and theory.