“To hope was to expect”: The impact of perspective taking and forecast type on wishful thinking

When forecasting future outcomes, people tend to believe that the outcomes they want to happen are also likely to happen. Despite numerous attempts, few systematic factors have been identified that consistently and robustly reduce wishful thinking (WT) effects. Using elections and sporting event outcomes as contexts, three experiments examined whether taking the perspective of a political rival or opposing fan reduced WT effects. We also examined whether making deliberative (vs. intuitive-based) forecasts was associated with lower WT effects. Online adult samples of U.S. citizens from Mechanical Turk and U.S. college students provided their preferences and forecasts for the U.S. presidential election (Experiments 1 and 2) and a sports competition outcome (Experiment 3). Critically, some participants received perspective taking prompts immediately before providing forecasts. First, results revealed reductions in WT effects when participants engaged in perspective taking. Interestingly, this effect only emerged when intuitive-based forecasts were made first (Experiment 3). Second, intuitive-based forecasts revealed stronger evidence of WT effects. Finally, we found that perspective taking and forming forecasts deliberately promoted a shift in focus away from preferences and toward a consideration of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the entities (i.e., candidates and teams). Theoretical implications for understanding WT effects and applied implications for developing interventions are discussed.     

Accountability amplifies the status quo effect when change creates victims

This study assesses the impact of accountability, the status quo, and anticipated costs and benefits on judgement of the acceptability of a drug in the US pharmaceuticals market. Several effects are documented: (1) subjects were more accepting of a drug, the lower the anticipated risks of side effects and the greater the anticipated benefits; (2) subjects were especially unwilling to accept risk when the drug was not yet on the market and when they felt accountable for their decisions; (3) accountable subjects confronted by an off-the-market drug that posed moderate or high risk were also especially likely to procrastinate, to buckpass, and to think in integratively complex ways about the problem, notwithstanding the fact that many more lives would be saved than lost. We explain these results by positing that perceptual-cognitive processes (loss aversion) and political processes (blame avoidance) mutually reinforce each other when decision makers are accountable for choices that raise the possibility of changing the status quo in ways that impose losses on identifiable constituencies. We conclude by commenting on the complex normative issues that arise in labelling response tendencies as biases. Choices that look irrational within one ethical or political framework sometimes appear quite reasonable with another.     

Resilience of children in disasters: A multisystem perspective

Interest in resilience is surging in research, policy and practice as threats from disasters rise and humanity confronts a global pandemic. This commentary highlights the importance of defining resilience for portability across system levels and disciplines in order to integrate knowledge and prepare adequately for the challenges posed to children and youth by multisystem disasters. A scalable definition of resilience is recommended: The capacity of a dynamic system to adapt successfully to challenges that threaten the function, survival or development of the system. Major determinants of adaptation among young people in the context of disaster are highlighted, including variations in adversity exposure dose, developmental timing, individual differences and the socio-ecological systems of children's lives that can be mobilised in response. Adaptation of children in disasters depends on the resilience of interconnected systems, including families, schools, communities and policy sectors. Implications of a multisystem perspective for disaster risk reduction and preparedness are discussed with a focus on nurturing the resilience of children and their societies for challenges in the near term and long into the future.     

Selfish power and unselfish status in Chinese work situations

The present research explored the selfishness of power and status as well as the mechanism in Chinese work situations. By using experimental and survey methods, two studies were designed to investigate the relationships among power, status, and self‐interested behaviour (SIB) as well as the mediating effect of perspective‐taking (PT). Results of the two studies consistently indicated that power increases whereas status reduces SIB. These opposing behavioural effects are partially attributed to the fact that power reduces whereas status increases PT. In addition, our results showed an interaction between power and status on SIB in Study 1 (interaction as a mental function), and a positive correlation between perceived power and status in Study 2 (correlation as a mental perception). Through the discussion from the perspective of the self/other‐orientation trait, as well as the stable effects of power and status on SIB in the two studies, we conclude that power is selfish and status is unselfish in Chinese work situations.     

自动观点采择：内隐心智化与潜心智化的争议

自动观点采择现象已有很多研究证实, 但其产生机制还存在争议。目前存在内隐心智化与潜心智化两种观点：前者认为自动观点采择是自发采择他人视角的领域特殊加工; 而后者提出自动观点采择实质为反射性注意定向、位置的空间编码等领域一般加工, 模拟了心智化在社会环境中的作用。在内隐心智化和潜心智化可独立或共同运行的基础上, 提出了内隐心智化和潜心智化协同作用模型。未来研究应借助先进的技术手段研究多样的被试群体, 探索自动观点采择的作用机制。     

寻找镜中的自我：精神分裂症患者的视觉观点采择

精神分裂症患者的视觉观点采择影响其必要的社交活动和生活质量。本文通过对精神分裂症患者视觉观点采择的研究进行梳理,总结出相关的心理特点：精神分裂症患者的视觉观点采择过程受损,表现出自我中心性和他人中心性。在神经生理上表现出与视觉观点采择相关的脑区激活减弱。可能的原因是患者认知功能中反应抑制能力和心理旋转能力的受损所致,建议采用认知干预疗法可能会改善患者的视觉观点采择能力。目前的研究论证了精神分裂症患者视觉观点采择过程的损伤,对于不同水平的视觉观点采择下精神分裂症患者的认知模式还未有明确的定论,未来的研究可以从该角度入手,更加明确精神分裂症患者不同水平视觉观点采择的特点和神经生理活动。     

Risk perception of a chronic threat of terrorism: Differences based on coping types,gender and exposure

High levels of risk perception of terrorism (RPT) may impair an individual's quality of life and welfare. To understand the mechanisms responsible for RPT, this study investigated the association of gender and coping styles with individual differences in two key elements of RPT: perceived control and perceived vulnerability. A convenience sample of 400 Israelis (181 men and 219 women) filled out questionnaires on sociodemographic background, RPT and coping. Employing a multidimensional approach for coping, we divided participants into four coping types: problem-focused (n = 65), emotion-focused (n = 70), mixed (n = 122) and minimal (n = 142). The results indicate that problem-focused coping is associated with higher levels of perceived control than other types of coping and mixed coping is associated with higher levels of perceived vulnerability than other coping strategies. Also, interactions between gender and exposure to terrorism contributed to understanding the differences in perceived control. The discussion addresses gender differences in RPT and coping in the context of traditional gender roles. The study concludes with implications for risk management and therapeutic interventions regarding high levels of fear of terrorism.     

Decision-makers use social information to update their preferences but choose for others as they do for themselves

People's risky decisions are susceptible to the social context in which they take place. Across three experiments using different paradigms, we investigated the influence of three social factors upon participants' decisions: the recipient of the decision-making outcome (self, other, or joint), the nature of the relationship with the other agent (friend, stranger, or teammate), and the type of information that participants received about others' preferences: none at all, general information about how previous participants had decided, or information about a specific partner's preference. We found that participants' decisions about risk did not differ according to whether the outcome at stake was their own, another agent's, or a joint outcome, nor according to the type of information available. Participants did, however, adjust their preferences for risky options in light of social information.     

Salient Volunteering Behavior Increases Monetary Risk‐taking

Research finds that engaging in prosocial behavior has many positive psychological outcomes (e.g., enhanced well‐being, optimism, perceived control, and a boost in self‐concept), and research on monetary risk‐taking reveals these psychological outcomes are associated with increased risk‐taking. Merging these findings, we propose that when people's volunteering behavior is made salient in their minds, they take more monetary risks. Making research participants’ volunteering behavior salient by having them recall an act of prior volunteering (studies 1 and 3), choosing whether to volunteer (study 2), or choosing one of two volunteering activities (study 4), four experiments (and a fifth reported in the Appendix S2) reveal increased risk‐taking across several monetary‐risk outcomes (incentive‐compatible gambles, allocation of a windfall gain, and a behavioral risk‐taking measure involving escalating risk). Lastly, when the decision maker attributes a decision to volunteer to an external source, the effect of salient volunteering on monetary risk‐taking attenuates.     

The effect of the emotional state on driving performance in a simulated car-following task

Emotion is an important factor that influences driving behavior, but the mechanism is unclear. This research explored the effect of the emotional state on simulated driving behavior. Thirty-five licensed drivers participated in this study and completed a car-following task. The angry, happy and neutral states were manipulated during the task. The participants’ driving performance and risk perception were recorded under each emotional state. Trait anger and driving experience were also measured to explore the possible mediating effect. The results showed that the drivers in an angry or happy emotional state tended to maintain less time to collision and take a longer time to brake while following a lead vehicle than the drivers under the neutral condition, suggesting that drivers in emotional states are more dangerous those in neutral states. Moreover, the happy state rendered the drivers more dangerous, which manifested as a lower perceived accident risk than that among the drivers in the angry and neutral states. More specifically, experienced drivers in happy states performed worse with respect to vehicle lateral position control. Recommendations and implications for safety education and further research are discussed.