Ambiguity attitudes in qualitative contexts: The role of prior beliefs

Most studies of ambiguity aversion rely on experimental paradigms involving monetary bets. Thus, the extent to which ambiguity aversion occurs outside of such contexts is much less understood, particularly when the situation cannot easily be reduced to numerical terms. The present work seeks to understand whether people prefer to avoid ambiguous decisions in a variety of different qualitative domains (e.g., work, family, love, friendship, exercise, study, and health), and, if so, to determine the role played by prior beliefs in those domains. Across three studies, we presented participants with 24 vignettes and measured the degree to which they preferred risk to ambiguity in each. We also asked them for their prior probability estimates about the likely outcomes in the ambiguous events. Ambiguity aversion was observed in the vast majority of vignettes, but at different magnitudes. It was predicted by whether the vignette involved gain or loss as well as by people's prior beliefs; however, the heterogeneity between people meant that the role of prior beliefs was only evident in an individual-level analysis (i.e., not at the group level). Our results suggest that the desire to avoid ambiguity occurs in a wide variety of qualitative contexts but to different degrees for different people and may be partially driven by unfavorable prior estimates of the likely outcomes of the ambiguous events.     

Accountability amplifies the status quo effect when change creates victims

This study assesses the impact of accountability, the status quo, and anticipated costs and benefits on judgement of the acceptability of a drug in the US pharmaceuticals market. Several effects are documented: (1) subjects were more accepting of a drug, the lower the anticipated risks of side effects and the greater the anticipated benefits; (2) subjects were especially unwilling to accept risk when the drug was not yet on the market and when they felt accountable for their decisions; (3) accountable subjects confronted by an off-the-market drug that posed moderate or high risk were also especially likely to procrastinate, to buckpass, and to think in integratively complex ways about the problem, notwithstanding the fact that many more lives would be saved than lost. We explain these results by positing that perceptual-cognitive processes (loss aversion) and political processes (blame avoidance) mutually reinforce each other when decision makers are accountable for choices that raise the possibility of changing the status quo in ways that impose losses on identifiable constituencies. We conclude by commenting on the complex normative issues that arise in labelling response tendencies as biases. Choices that look irrational within one ethical or political framework sometimes appear quite reasonable with another.     

Psychological determinants of decision attitude

Decision attitude — an analog of risk attitude — is the propensity to make (or avoid making) a decision: in decision aversion, a person finds it more desirable to receive through fiat the better of two options than to have a choice between them; in decision seeking, the choice is more desirable, even though it can lead to nothing better than the best option. Both decision aversion and decision seeking were found in hypothetical scenarios. Experimental manipulations and subjects' justifications point to anticipated regret, fear of blame for poor outcomes, and desire for equitable distributions as sources of decision aversion. One source of decision seeking (for self) and decision aversion (when deciding for others) appears to be the desire for the self-determination of the affected parties. We consider the implications of our results for personal choice and public policy decisions.     

Resilience of children in disasters: A multisystem perspective

Interest in resilience is surging in research, policy and practice as threats from disasters rise and humanity confronts a global pandemic. This commentary highlights the importance of defining resilience for portability across system levels and disciplines in order to integrate knowledge and prepare adequately for the challenges posed to children and youth by multisystem disasters. A scalable definition of resilience is recommended: The capacity of a dynamic system to adapt successfully to challenges that threaten the function, survival or development of the system. Major determinants of adaptation among young people in the context of disaster are highlighted, including variations in adversity exposure dose, developmental timing, individual differences and the socio-ecological systems of children's lives that can be mobilised in response. Adaptation of children in disasters depends on the resilience of interconnected systems, including families, schools, communities and policy sectors. Implications of a multisystem perspective for disaster risk reduction and preparedness are discussed with a focus on nurturing the resilience of children and their societies for challenges in the near term and long into the future.     

Risk perception of a chronic threat of terrorism: Differences based on coping types,gender and exposure

High levels of risk perception of terrorism (RPT) may impair an individual's quality of life and welfare. To understand the mechanisms responsible for RPT, this study investigated the association of gender and coping styles with individual differences in two key elements of RPT: perceived control and perceived vulnerability. A convenience sample of 400 Israelis (181 men and 219 women) filled out questionnaires on sociodemographic background, RPT and coping. Employing a multidimensional approach for coping, we divided participants into four coping types: problem-focused (n = 65), emotion-focused (n = 70), mixed (n = 122) and minimal (n = 142). The results indicate that problem-focused coping is associated with higher levels of perceived control than other types of coping and mixed coping is associated with higher levels of perceived vulnerability than other coping strategies. Also, interactions between gender and exposure to terrorism contributed to understanding the differences in perceived control. The discussion addresses gender differences in RPT and coping in the context of traditional gender roles. The study concludes with implications for risk management and therapeutic interventions regarding high levels of fear of terrorism.     

参照依赖和损失规避对个体收入分配公平判断的影响

收入分配公平判断是人们对自己收入所得公平与否的主观评价。通过对参照点和收入金额的控制,探讨参照依赖和损失规避对收入分配公平判断的共同影响。结果发现,(1)民众的收入公平判断受参照点的影响,在有参照点的情景下比无参照点情景下更感觉不公平;(2)不同工资水平下,民众的公平判断具有显著差异,而且民众对低于平均工资的“受损”比高于平均工资同等金额的“受益”赋予的公平感的权重更大,即存在得失感受的不对称;(3)不同的工资参照点、多得和少得的分配结果共同影响民众的公平判断,即损失规避在参照依赖对公平判断的影响中起调节作用。     

Salient Volunteering Behavior Increases Monetary Risk‐taking

Research finds that engaging in prosocial behavior has many positive psychological outcomes (e.g., enhanced well‐being, optimism, perceived control, and a boost in self‐concept), and research on monetary risk‐taking reveals these psychological outcomes are associated with increased risk‐taking. Merging these findings, we propose that when people's volunteering behavior is made salient in their minds, they take more monetary risks. Making research participants’ volunteering behavior salient by having them recall an act of prior volunteering (studies 1 and 3), choosing whether to volunteer (study 2), or choosing one of two volunteering activities (study 4), four experiments (and a fifth reported in the Appendix S2) reveal increased risk‐taking across several monetary‐risk outcomes (incentive‐compatible gambles, allocation of a windfall gain, and a behavioral risk‐taking measure involving escalating risk). Lastly, when the decision maker attributes a decision to volunteer to an external source, the effect of salient volunteering on monetary risk‐taking attenuates.     

The effect of the emotional state on driving performance in a simulated car-following task

Emotion is an important factor that influences driving behavior, but the mechanism is unclear. This research explored the effect of the emotional state on simulated driving behavior. Thirty-five licensed drivers participated in this study and completed a car-following task. The angry, happy and neutral states were manipulated during the task. The participants’ driving performance and risk perception were recorded under each emotional state. Trait anger and driving experience were also measured to explore the possible mediating effect. The results showed that the drivers in an angry or happy emotional state tended to maintain less time to collision and take a longer time to brake while following a lead vehicle than the drivers under the neutral condition, suggesting that drivers in emotional states are more dangerous those in neutral states. Moreover, the happy state rendered the drivers more dangerous, which manifested as a lower perceived accident risk than that among the drivers in the angry and neutral states. More specifically, experienced drivers in happy states performed worse with respect to vehicle lateral position control. Recommendations and implications for safety education and further research are discussed.     

Factors related to the use of pedestrian bridges in university students of Honduras

Considering that deaths and injuries due to run overs near pedestrian bridges (PB) are preventable events, this research aims to analyze the factors related to the use of pedestrian bridges in students of a public university of Honduras. This was made through a quantitative methodology; 330 questionnaires were applied to a sample of university students. Results suggest that 17.27% of the respondents don’t use the bridge. Most respondents (62.42%) believe it’s faster to cross the street and that using the bridge is tiresome (79.90%). Pedestrian bridges are also considered to be unsafe places, prone to robberies. Pearson’s r coefficient determined that this belief is significantly associated with the perception of cleanliness, quality of the infrastructure and illumination. There is a correlation between stress and considering the use of the bridge as a tiresome activity. A logistic regression model determined that significant variables explained the use of the PB included: being in a hurry, believing it’s faster to cross the street, thinking that PBs have a bad infrastructure, laziness and thinking that using the PB is tiresome, all of them reducing the chance that someone will use the bridge. On the other hand, non-significant variables in the model included: age, considering that using the PB is stressful, thinking that crossing the street is stressful, thinking PBs have good illumination. Safety related variables were not able to discriminate between users and non-users. These results are discussed in the light of previous research and their implication for public policy and future research.