An availability bias in professional judgment

When branches of a fault tree are pruned, subjects do not fully transfer the probability of those branches to the ‘all other’ category. This underestimation of the catch-all probability has been interpreted as an ‘out of sight, out of mind’ form of the availability bias. The present work replicates this underestimation bias with professional managers. It then demonstrates the effectiveness of a corrective tactic, extending the tree by generating additional causes, and also reveals that more easily retrieved short-term causes dominate the generation process. These results do not differ across managers' culture, education or experience. After evaluating such alternative explanations as category redefinition, we conclude that availability is a major cause, though possibly not the sole cause, of the underestimation bias.     

Angular homeostasis: IV. Polygonal orbits

Some properties are discussed of regular polygons that may result from angular homeostatic processes in stable orbit. To characterize these homeostatic polygons we need to discuss the winding number, the sidedness (integer, fractional and irrational), multiplicity, envelopes, and density. A regular (i.e., equilateral, equiangular) polygon may be closed in one revolution about its unique center, in multiple revolutions, or not at all. A homeostatic polygon can be generated only if all vertices are included in a single polygon, which occurs if and only if the number of vertices and the number of revolutions required to complete the polygon are relatively prime. For the homeostatic polygon to have a finite number of sides (without repeating itself) the angle subtended by any two successive vertices at the center must be a rational multiple of 2. Biological implications of these properties are illustrated.     

Effects of diagnostic classification systems on clinical hypothesis-generation

In this study it was determined whether (a) classification as opposed to absence of classification has an effect on the quality of clinical hypotheses (b) the DSM-III-R and the CBCL have a different effect on the quality of clinical hypotheses, and (c) the potential difference between the DSM-III-R and the CBCL is moderated by the different number of syndromes identified by these systems. To investigate these questions, an experiment was conducted in which 86 clinicians generated hypotheses for six cases. The clinicians were divided into a DSM-III-R, a CBCL, and a control group. Of the six cases, two were classified by both classification systems as one syndrome, two were classified as one syndrome by the DSM-III-R but as two syndromes by the CBCL, and two were classified as two syndromes by the DSM-III-R but as one syndrome by the CBCL. The quality of the hypotheses was determined by means of four dependent variables selected from an overview of qualitative criteria: explanatory value, redundancy, possibility of operationalization, and specificity. No differences between the CBCL and the control groups were found. The DSM group performed better than the control group regarding explanatory value and redundancy. The DSM-III-R group also scored better than the CBCL group regarding explanatory value, particularly when the number of identified syndromes was two for the CBCL and one for the DSM-III-R.     

Random error in additive decompositions of multiattribute utility

Decomposition is a common strategy for dealing with the complexity of multiattribute decision problems. A cognitively demanding task is broken down into tasks requiring simpler, perhaps easier, judgments which can then be aggregated. But individual judgments can be inconsistent in systematic or random fashion and when aggregated there is the possibility of propagation of this inconsistency. In this paper inconsistency in the form of random error is investigated in the context of additive decomposition of multiattribute utility. The process of aggregation of random error is studied and a comparison made with random error in holistic estimates of multiattribute utility. Conditions under which decomposition improves the consistency of the multiattribute utility estimate are presented and discussed.     

Choice and multiple reinforcers

Pigeons chose between equivalent two-component mixed and multiple terminal-link schedules of reinforcement in the concurrent-chains procedure. The pigeons preferred the multiple schedule over the mixed when the components of the compound schedules were differentiated in terms of density of reinforcement, but the pigeons were indifferent when the components were differentiated in terms of number of reinforcers per cycle. Taken together, these results indicate that a local variable, the interval to the first reinforcer, but not a molar variable, the number of reinforcers, was sufficient to differentiate the components and thereby evoke preference.     

Latent roots of random data correlation matrices with squared multiple correlations on the diagonal: A monte carlo study

In order to make the parallel analysis criterion for determining the number of factors easy to use, regression equations for predicting the logarithms of the latent roots of random correlation matrices, with squared multiple correlations on the diagonal, are presented. The correlation matrices were derived from distributions of normally distributed random numbers. The independent variables are log (N–1) and log {[n(n–1)/2]–[(i–1)n]}, whereN is the number of observations;n, the number of variables; andi, the ordinal position of the eigenvalue. The results were excellent, with multiple correlation coefficients ranging from .9948 to .9992.This research was supported by the Office of Naval Research under Contract N00014-67-A-0305-0012, Lloyd G. Humphreys, principal investigator, and by the Department of Computer Science of which Richard G. Montanelli, Jr., is a member.     

Dimensional stimulus control following brief wavelength training

Pigeons with extensive training pecking a key illuminated by a white line then had brief training with the key illuminated by 555 nanometers. This was immediately followed by a wavelength generalization test in extinction. Dimensional stimulus control about the training wavelength increased with the duration and number of reinforcements given on variable-interval 30-sec and variable-interval 10-sec schedules in Experiment I. In Experiment II, dimensional stimulus control was obtained after only 4 min of wavelength training from birds with prior and independent discrimination training. Experiment III provided groups equated in number of reinforcers with groups in Experiment I and two 8-min duration groups. Analyses, which included results from both Experiments I and III, showed that dimensional stimulus control increased: (a) more rapidly as a function of the duration of variable-interval 10-sec than variable-interval 30-sec reinforcement; (b) at the same rate across variable-interval reinforcement schedules, as a function of the number of reinforcers available during brief wavelength training.     

友伴人际品格对儿童人际品格的影响:友伴数量的调节作用及儿童群体差异

友伴是儿童发展的重要影响源。本研究从儿童积极发展的视角探讨友伴人际品格（仁慈和公正）对儿童人际品格的影响及友伴数量在其中的调节作用,并检验了儿童的群体（学段、性别、是否独生）差异状况。研究采用班级同伴提名法及儿童品格调查问卷对1555名4~9年级儿童及其互提名友伴展开调查。结果发现：（1）友伴仁慈和公正显著预测所有儿童群体的仁慈和公正;（2）儿童的友伴数量更多时,友伴公正对其公正的预测作用更显著;该调节效应仅体现在初中生和男生群体上。研究结果表明,儿童与具有积极品格特征的友伴交往对其积极品格的发展至关重要,且对于特定群体（如初中生、男生）,与越多具有积极品质的友伴交往,其受到的积极影响越大。