Complex decision making: A longitudinal study of process and performance

Two studies using a computer-simulated, strategy-formulation game and business students were conducted using simultaneous verbal protocols. It was found that a number of information-processing and information-evaluation thought processes were significantly related to game performance. Consistent with what is known about individual decision making, the present results suggest that, for the task used in this study, individuals who engage in causal analysis perform better than those who do not. But those who focus on negative emotions, blindly repeat previously successful decisions, and engage in illogical through processes perform more poorly than those who do not. Causal replication using real managers within organizational settings, however, is needed before firm conclusions can be drawn from this research.     

Patients' perceptions of treatment for kidney failure: The impact of personal experience on population predictions

Estimates of the probability of various outcomes associated with treatment for kidney failure were made by chronic dialysis patients, dialysis patients awaiting transplant, successful transplant patients, and unsuccessful transplant patients back on dialysis. The latter two groups can be considered a natural experiment testing the impact of personal experience on population predictions. Consistent with the law of small numbers and the availability heuristic, successful transplant patients gave higher estimates of the population success rate for transplantation than unsuccessful transplant patients gave.     

Sex roles and depression: A preliminary investigation of the direction of causality

The present study examined the direction of the relation between sex role self-concept and depression. A total of 23 males and 32 females were given the Personal Attributes Questionnaire and the Beck Depression Inventory at two times separated by a 3-month interval. Results of a cross-lagged panel correlational analysis found no evidence for sex role orientation as a cause of depression. Instead, the data suggested that emotional well being precedes self-perceived instrumentality, but the influence of third variables could not be overlooked. The implications of these data are discussed with particular reference to the need for more complex theoretical formulations of the relation between self-perceived instrumentality and adjustment.     

Different methods of lexical access for words presented in the left and right visual hemifields

Right-handed adults were asked to identify by name bilaterally presented words and pronounceable nonwords. For words in the normal horizontal format, word length (number of letters) affected left visual hemifield (LVF) but not right visual hemifield (RVF) performance in Experiments 1, 2, 3, 5, and 6. This finding was made for words of high and low frequency (Experiment 6) and imageability (Experiment 5). It also held across markedly different levels of overall performance (Experiments 1 and 2), and across different relative positionings of short and long words in the LVF and RVF (Experiment 3). Experiment 4 demonstrated that the variable affecting LVF performance is the number of letters in a word, not its phonological length. For pronounceable nonwords (Experiment 7) and words in unusual formats (Experiment 8), however, length affected both LVF and RVF performance. The characteristics identified for RVF performance in these experiments also hold for the normal reading system. In this (normal) system the absence of length effects for horizontally formatted words is generally taken to reflect the processes involved in lexical access. Length effects in the normal reading system are thought to arise when lexical access for unusually formatted words and for the pronunciation of nonwords requires the short-term storage of information at a graphemic level of analysis. The characteristics of LVF performance indicate that horizontally formatted words presented to the right cerebral hemisphere can only achieve lexical access by a method that requires the short-term storage of graphemic information. This qualitative difference in methods of lexical access applies regardless of whether the right hemisphere is seen as accessing words in the left hemisphere's lexicon or words in a lexicon of its own.     

Comments on Hughes and Sussman''s time-sharing study of cerebral laterality in language-disordered and normal children

M. Hughes and H. M. Sussman (1983, Brain and Language, 19, 48-64) suggest that the time-sharing paradigm "does not serve as an adequate behavioral index for language lateralization in children." The merits of this conclusion are considered and general interpretative issues regarding manual interference in dual-task/time-sharing studies are discussed.     

Morning and evening people: Examination of an identifying scale and of social- and self-perceptions of personality differences

An experiment was conducted aimed first at establishing the reliability and validity of a measure of individual differences in sleeping schedules. Two samples of subjects completed a questionnaire concerning their sleeping behavior which was scored according to the diurnal or nocturnal pattern of their responses. The scores were then used to classify subjects as morning people or evening people. Both the internal reliability and cross-time reliability of the scale were assessed and found to be high. In addition, three indices of construct validity, obtained 4 months after the administration of the scale, supported its validity. In a second part of the experiment, subjects classified as either morning or evening people rated themselves on a set of behavioral and personality dimensions. Another sample of subjects indicated their perceptions of morning people and evening people in general, along the same dimensions. It was found that subjects did have strong beliefs about personality and behavioral differences between morning people and evening people. However, the self-perceptions of the actual morning and evening people did not differ, thereby casting doubt on the validity of popular stereotypic perceptions about the two groups.     

Lateral asymmetry of personal optimism

By combining models of cerebral emotional asymmetry and unilateral hemispheric activation, it was hypothesized that orienting to the right would produce greater personal optimism about future events than would orienting toward the left. This was supported significantly in two experiments which differed from each other in their manipulations, hypothetical future events, means of responding, and settings. The results supported previous research on unrealistic optimism and extended the concept to show the effect of induced lateral orientation. It was proposed that this effect is mediated by mood, and possibly by perceived control, and that this methodology can be extended to other behaviors which have proven amenable to mood manipulation.     

A maximum likelihood hierarchical disaggregate model for predicting choices of individuals

The absence of operational disaggregate lexicographic decision models and Tversky's observation that choice behavior is often inconsistent, hierarchical, and context dependent motivate the development of a maximum likelihood hierarchical (MLH) choice model. This new disaggregate choice model requires few assumptions and accommodates the three aspects of choice behavior noted by A. Tversky (1972, Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 9, 341–367). The model has its foundation in a prototype model developed by the authors. Unlike the deterministic prototype, however, MLH is a probabilistic model which generates maximum likelihood estimators of the aggregate “cutoff values.” The model is formulated as a concave programming problem whose solutions are therefore globally optimal. Finally, the model is applied to data from three separate studies where it is demonstrated to have superior performance over the prototype model in its predictive performance.     

The effects of recency and story content on children's moral judgments

Sixteen stories were read to children at ages 4, 7, and 11 years and to college freshmen (n = 24 per age level) to investigate the effects of recency and specific story content on the development of moral reasoning. The stories consisted of either positive or negative intention and either positive or negative consequence in one of four situations: rule breaking, property damage, property damage with peer interaction, or injury to a person. At each age level, half of the subjects heard the stories with the intention first and the consequence second, and half heard them in the reverse order. Analyses confirmed that in general younger children judged on consequence, whereas older children utilized intention, and that on stories containing intentional injury to a person, the younger child took intention into account. Recency effects were evidenced for both the 4- and 7-year-olds. In the 4-year-old group, however, the recency effects failed to override the salience of negative consequence in contexts of positive intention and negative consequence. This suggests that preschool children may respond primarily to the negative aspect of the story, whether intention or consequence.     

Integration of melody and text in memory for songs

Two experiments examined whether the memory representation for songs consists of independent or integrated components (melody and text). Subjects heard a serial presentation of excerpts from largely unfamiliar folksongs, followed by a recognition test. The test required subjects to recognize songs, melodies, or texts and consisted of five types of items: (a) exact songs heard in the presentation; (b) new songs; (c) old tunes with new words; (d) new tunes with old words; and (e) old tunes with old words of a different song from the same presentation (‘mismatch songs’). Experiment 1 supported the integration hypothesis: Subjects' recognition of components was higher in exact songs (a) than in songs with familiar but mismatched components (e). Melody recognition, in particular, was near chance unless the original words were present. Experiment 2 showed that this integration of melody and text occurred also across different performance renditions of a song and that it could not be eliminated by voluntary attention to the melody.