An availability bias in professional judgment

When branches of a fault tree are pruned, subjects do not fully transfer the probability of those branches to the ‘all other’ category. This underestimation of the catch-all probability has been interpreted as an ‘out of sight, out of mind’ form of the availability bias. The present work replicates this underestimation bias with professional managers. It then demonstrates the effectiveness of a corrective tactic, extending the tree by generating additional causes, and also reveals that more easily retrieved short-term causes dominate the generation process. These results do not differ across managers' culture, education or experience. After evaluating such alternative explanations as category redefinition, we conclude that availability is a major cause, though possibly not the sole cause, of the underestimation bias.     

Effects of diagnostic classification systems on clinical hypothesis-generation

In this study it was determined whether (a) classification as opposed to absence of classification has an effect on the quality of clinical hypotheses (b) the DSM-III-R and the CBCL have a different effect on the quality of clinical hypotheses, and (c) the potential difference between the DSM-III-R and the CBCL is moderated by the different number of syndromes identified by these systems. To investigate these questions, an experiment was conducted in which 86 clinicians generated hypotheses for six cases. The clinicians were divided into a DSM-III-R, a CBCL, and a control group. Of the six cases, two were classified by both classification systems as one syndrome, two were classified as one syndrome by the DSM-III-R but as two syndromes by the CBCL, and two were classified as two syndromes by the DSM-III-R but as one syndrome by the CBCL. The quality of the hypotheses was determined by means of four dependent variables selected from an overview of qualitative criteria: explanatory value, redundancy, possibility of operationalization, and specificity. No differences between the CBCL and the control groups were found. The DSM group performed better than the control group regarding explanatory value and redundancy. The DSM-III-R group also scored better than the CBCL group regarding explanatory value, particularly when the number of identified syndromes was two for the CBCL and one for the DSM-III-R.     

An information - expectation framework for decisions under uncertainty

Despite being in existence for many decades, normative decision theory has not become a commonly used tool for real-world decisions. This paper considers the reasons for this situation and suggestions for circumventing them. The main suggestion involves a two-stage framework in terms of the information available to the decision maker and his/her expectations under the available acts. This framework is well suited for decisions with incomplete structure, which is typical of real decision situations. Within this framework a specific multiplicative model is also discussed.     

Negative cognitive style and looming cognitive style synergistically predict stress generation

There is a growing body of evidence that suggests that cognitive vulnerabilities to depression or anxiety may lead individuals to generate negative interpersonal life events. However, there has been no study to date that examines the effects of co-occurring vulnerabilities to depression and anxiety. In a sample of 304 participants, we examined the potential interaction of co-occurring negative cognitive style, a vulnerability to depression and looming cognitive style, vulnerability to anxiety. Results indicate that co-occurring cognitive vulnerabilities synergistically predict higher levels of negative interpersonal life events six weeks later, even when controlling for initial levels of stressful life events and symptoms of depression and anxiety. Thus, co-occurring vulnerabilities may have stronger stress generating effects than would be expected from the additive effects of each vulnerability considered separately. This finding highlights the importance of examining cognitive vulnerabilities as interactive effects rather than as individual vulnerabilities.     

Vulnerability-specific stress generation: an examination of depressogenic cognitive vulnerability across multiple domains

Background and Objectives: Although there is supporting evidence for the stress generation hypothesis (i.e., the tendency for depression-prone individuals to experience more negative dependent events influenced by their behaviors and characteristics), additional research is required to advance current understanding of the specific types of dependent events relevant to this effect. The present study elaborated on the stress generation hypothesis, in which the content of negative dependent events experienced by individuals is contingent upon, and matches, the nature of their particular vulnerabilities. This extension was tested within the context of Cole's competency-based model of depression. Design: Participants (n = 185) were assessed at two time-points separated by a four-month interval. Methods: Self-perceived competence in academic, social, and appearance domains at the initial time-point were examined in relation to negative life events prospectively occurring over the four-month follow-up period, assessed using the “contextual threat” method. Results: Partial support was obtained for vulnerability-specific stress generation. Stress-generation specificity was found for self-perceived competence in appearance and academic domains, but not for self-perceived social competence. Conclusions: The current findings are consistent with the possibility of a more complex relation between self-perceived social competence and domain-congruent stress generation. Individuals may be more likely to experience negative dependent events in domains matching their specific vulnerabilities.     

Automatic question generation and answer assessment for subjective examination

Automatic generation of questions and evaluating their answers is a highly challenging task in natural language processing and educational technology. This work focuses on generating subjective questions and also an evaluation system is suggested for assessing the answers. For generating the questionnaires, key-phrases are extracted from the course curriculum (syllabus). Next, based on the key-phrases, different types of subjective questions are generated. Finally, the evaluation of student’s responses is achieved using a multi-criteria-decision-making approach. It uses a set of model answers taken from different textbooks and subject experts to evaluate the answers. Multiple measures are used to assess the answers by comparing them with this model set. The results of the profound system reveal that the automated appraisal process can reduce the manual effort of the human.     

Cultural Identities of Children of Chinese Migrants in Spain: A Critical Evaluation of the Category 1.5 Generation

The term 1.5 generation has broadly been used to refer to individuals who migrate in childhood or adolescence. It has served as a distinction from the first generation, who voluntarily migrated in adulthood, and from the second generation, born in the host society. The experiences and cultural identities of 1.5-generation children have generally been described as located in between two worlds. However, the present qualitative study conducted among 1.5-generation Chinese living in Spain does not support these views. It shows that some children feel unequivocally Chinese, while the experiences of others reflect much more nuance and complexity that resists categorization. A dialogical perspective is proposed as a multilayered and intersectional approach from which to explore these identities.     

Naturally Occurring Mentorship in a National Sample of First‐Generation College Goers: A Promising Portal for Academic and Developmental Success

Attending college is increasingly important to compete in this global world; however, young people whose parents did not attend college are significantly less likely to enroll in and finish college. Formal programs to support first‐generation college goers are common, but not scalable to provide support to all young people who need it. Instead, mentoring that naturally occurs on these students’ journeys into and out of college may be a more practical avenue for supporting their success. This study investigated the role community members, relatives, and educators play in first‐generation college goers’ educational outcomes. Data from 4,181 participants of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent and Adult Health were used to test differences in supports received between first‐generation, continuing‐generation, and non‐college goers. Results demonstrated that mentorship in adolescence moderated the relationship between parental college attendance and educational attainment in adulthood. Next, findings suggested that first‐generation students received less support for identity development from their mentors than continuing‐generation students. This study has program implications for facilitating college attendance and fostering the development and success of first‐generation students. Moreover, this project continues to concretize an emerging taxonomy of mentoring functions for youth and emerging adults.     

新生代农民工积极群际接触的有效性:基于群体身份与认同视角

以新生代农民工为研究对象,以其对群际通透性的感知为测量指标,检验积极群际接触的有效性,探察群体受害者身份感知和群体认同对积极群际接触有效性的影响,以及群体认同在群体受害者身份感知与积极群际接触关系中的作用。结果表明:(1)积极群际接触可以有效促进新生代农民工对群际通透性的感知;(2)新生代农民工群体受害者身份感知对积极群际接触有效性有显著的中介作用;(3)新生代农民工的城市人认同水平对积极群际接触有效性具有显著的调节作用;(4)新生代农民工群体受害者身份感知对积极群际接触有效性的中介作用不受其群体认同水平的影响。研究结论对积极群际接触的有效性和感知的群体受害者身份与群体认同的关系进行了深入地讨论。     

Generational Conversion? The Role of Religiosity in the Politics of Evangelicals

The political environment for evangelical Protestants has changed substantially since the Christian Right reached its apex, as a more issue and ideologically diffuse political environment has emerged. The present study tests two different theoretical perspectives on whether these contextual changes may have altered Millennial evangelicals’ political perspectives vis‐à‐vis those of previous generations of evangelicals. On the one hand, theoretical perspectives related to differential political socialization processes across generations would lead to expectations of generational change among evangelicals. On the other hand, theoretical perspectives related to social identity theory would suggest far less change across generations. Using Pew's 2007 U.S. Religious Landscape Survey, we test these expectations by comparing the relationships between religiosity and political attitudes across three generations of evangelicals. Ordered probit and logistic regression models estimate the impact of religiosity on various political attitudes. These models reveal that Millennial evangelical religiosity continues to be strongly related to Republican Party identification and opposition toward abortion, which is largely consistent with the social identity perspective. Generational change is most evident in a variety of nonsocial issues in which religiosity is associated with less conservatism among Millennials. Additional analysis using the 2012 Religion and Politics Survey with a smaller sample of Millennial evangelicals confirms these results.