Confidence in judgments based on incomplete information: An investigation using both hypothetical and real gambles

This study assessed how confidence in judgments is affected by the need to make inferences about missing information. Subjects indicated their likelihood of taking each of a series of gambles based on both probability and payoff information or only one of these sources of information. They also rated their confidence in each likelihood judgment. Subjects in the Explicit Inference condition were asked to explicitly estimate the values of missing information before making their responses while subjects in the Implicit Inference condition were not. The manner in which probability information was framed was also manipulated. Experiment 1 employed hypothetical gambles and Experiment 2 employed gambles with real money. Expressed likelihood of taking gambles was higher when probability was phrased in terms of '% chance of winning' rather than '% chance of losing', but this difference was somewhat less with real gambles than with hypothetical gambles. Confidence ratings in each experiment were actually higher on incomplete information trials than on complete information trials in the Explicit Inference condition. Results were related to the general issue of confidence in judgments.     

Long term marriages in Sweden: And some comparisons with similar couples in the United States

This international, five-country long term marriages study of couples who have been married, or unmarried and cohabiting, for 20 years or longer is designed to study, among other things, marital satisfaction. This first report of the Swedish part of the study reports on a Swedish version of the self-rating Dyadic Adjustment Scale (DAS) used to investigate self-rated marital satisfaction. The couples describe high marital satisfaction and a high sense of coherence (SOC) compared to other groups. Contrary to other studies, no differences were found between men and women regarding SOC. The differences between them, that describe high relative to low marital satisfaction, pertain to matters of recreation, sex, life philosophy, time spent together, and frequency of quarrels. The men reported greater marital satisfaction than the women.     

Mood and realism of confidence judgements of one''s own answers to general knowledge questions

This study examines the effect of a depressed mood on the realism of subjects' confidence judgements of the correctness of answers to general knowledge questions. Research conducted on how mood influences cognitive processes gives reason to expect that a depressed mood might increase the realism of individuals' confidence ratings. Sixty subjects were divided into three conditions, two of which were given mood induction, one condition into an elated-happy mood and one condition into a depressed-sad mood. As evidenced by subjects' responses to mood scales only the depressed condition was affected by the mood induction. All subjects answered 93 general knowledge questions and rated their confidence in the correctness of the answer given. Subjects were instructed to think aloud when answering the last 31 questions. The conditions did not differ with respect to the proportion of questions answered correctly, mean level of confidence, nor with respect to three measures of the realism in subjects' confidence ratings (calibration, over/underconfidence and resolution). The results were the same when questions answered with and without think aloud instructions were analysed separately.     

Decisions,actions, and the appropriateness of confidence in knowledge

This research examines the appropriateness of confidence (i.e., subjective probability judgments) in knowledge associated with decisions and actions of social importance. One hundred and thirty seven participants completed a 50 item questionnaire assessing their knowledge of the two leading candidates in the 1988 presidential election in the U.S.A. Ninety one of the respondents completed the questionnaire one week prior to the election, whereas the other 46 completed the questionnaire on election day shortly after voting. After each item in the questionnaire, all respondents indicated whether or not the item content represented a reason why they voted (or intended to vote) for or against the candidate to whom the item referred. Within-person results indicated that, in comparison to items that were not cited as reasons for voting intentions or voting behavior, items endorsed as reasons were characterized by better accuracy and resolution, but worse overconfidence. Between groups, decision makers were significantly more accurate and better calibrated than those who had not made a decision between the candidates. Implications of inappropriate confidence on decision making effectiveness are discussed.     

Confidence depends on level of aggregation

The credible intervals that people set around their point estimates are typically too narrow (cf. Lichtenstein, Fischhoff, & Phillips, 1982). That is, a set of many such intervals does not contain the actual values of the criterion variables as often as it should given the probability assigned to this event for each estimate. The typical interpretation of such data is that people are overconfident about the accuracy of their judgments. This paper presents data from two studies showing the typical levels of overconfidence for individual estimates of unknown quantities. However, data from the same subjects on a different measure of confidence for the same items, their own global assessment for the set of multiple estimates as a whole, showed significantly lower levels of confidence and overconfidence than their average individual assessment for items in the set. It is argued that the event and global assessments of judgment quality are fundamentally different and are affected by unique psychological processes. Finally, we discuss the implications of a difference between confidence in single and multiple estimates for confidence research and theory.     

The interrelationships and reliability of a multilevel behavior-based assessment package for distressed couples

Twenty-six couples interested in improving their marital relationships participated in a multi-level behavior based assessment battery. The measures included self-reported, self-monitored, and observed components, all of which were examined for their interrelationships. Test-retest reliability was carried out with six of the couples. Self-reported measures, self-monitored pleasing behaviors, observed positive nonverbal and some negative verbal interactions were found to be consistent. In general, the various levels of measurement were found to be significantly related to each other. Some of the findings were applied to coercion and reciprocity formulations of marital interactions.     

The relationship between mental toughness and subjective mental illness recovery

Recently there has been an increasing interest in subjective mental illness recovery, and it has been recognised that there is an important role for characteristics such as self-efficacy and locus of control. Mental toughness describes a set of characteristics important for dealing with stress and pressure, and is comprised of challenge, commitment, control of emotion, control of life, confidence in abilities, and interpersonal confidence. The current study explored relationships between mental toughness and subjective mental illness recovery. Seventy-seven participants (nineteen males and fifty-eight females, the majority of which were young adults aged 18–21 years) who had previously recovered from, or were currently recovering from a mental illness (self-reported) completed questionnaire measures of mental toughness and subjective mental illness recovery. Mental toughness had a positive significant relationship to recovery, with particular roles for commitment and confidence in abilities. The findings are discussed in terms of implications for recovery-oriented practice, intervention, and measurement. Further research should examine the role of mental toughness in different aspects of subjective recovery, and also explore relationships with objective measures of recovery.     

Exploration of a Marital Typology: Implications for Marital Functioning in a Multi-Ethnic Sample

Marital conflict is associated with multiple negative outcomes for couples, including marital dissatisfaction and divorce. Little research, however, has examined conflict in Hispanic/Latino couples or its association with marital satisfaction, which creates an unfortunate knowledge gap for clinicians working with diverse client groups. The present study sought to examine both marital conflict and satisfaction using a sample of 231 European American (EA; n = 108) and Hispanic/Latino (H/L; n = 123) couples. Through observational coding, couples were placed into four groups based on their type of conflict management strategies: Harmonious, Withdrawn, Conflictual-Expressive, or Conflictual-Hostile. For both ethnic groups, couples in the Harmonious group were nondistressed and couples in the Conflictual-Hostile group were in the distressed range of marital satisfaction. Cross-ethnic differences emerged. EA couples experienced distress when both hostile (Conflictual-Hostile) and nonhostile conflict (Conflictual-Expressive) communication types were observed, while only hostile conflict was associated with distress for the H/L group. H/L couples reported similar levels of satisfaction in both the Harmonious and Conflictual-Expressive groups. H/L couples also fell within the distressed range when withdrawn communication patterns were observed; however, this was not the case for EA couples. These differences suggest that both types of conflict are associated with marital distress for EA couples, whereas hostile conflict and withdrawn behavior appear to be more negatively associated with marital satisfaction in H/L couples. Results provide support for the use of an observational coding system with H/L and EA couples and also suggest the importance of understanding how differences in expressions of conflict across ethnicities may relate to marital satisfaction.     

Perfectionism and athlete engagement: A multi-sample test of the 2 × 2 model of perfectionism

Few studies have examined how perfectionism relates to athlete engagement. In addition, the studies that do exist have focused on the main effects of dimensions of perfectionism as opposed to their interactive effects. The first purpose of the study was therefore to examine the interactive effects of dimensions of perfectionism in predicting athlete engagement and, in doing so, test the hypotheses of the 2 × 2 model of perfectionism. The second purpose of the study was to examine whether support for the 2 × 2 model depended on the instrument used to measure perfectionism. Three samples of junior and adult athletes from various sports (total N = 730) completed measures of perfectionism indicative of personal standards perfectionism (PSP) and evaluative concerns perfectionism (ECP) (HF-Multidimensional Perfectionism Scale, Cox, Enns, & Clara, 2002; Sport-Multidimensional Perfectionism Scale-2, Gotwals & Dunn, 2009; Multidimensional Inventory of Perfectionism for Sport, Stoeber et al. 2007), as well as a measure of athlete engagement (Athlete Engagement Questionnaire, Lonsdale, Hodge & Jackson, 2007). Moderated regression analyses provided support for the hypotheses of the 2 × 2 model for some facets of engagement but not others. Generally, pure PSP (high PSP/low ECP) was associated with the highest levels of athlete engagement and pure ECP (low PSP/high ECP) was associated with the lowest levels of athlete engagement. Support for the 2 × 2 model also differed depending on the instrument used to measure perfectionism. Overall, the findings suggest that the 2 × 2 model may explain differences between athletes in levels of engagement. However, these differences will depend on which indicators of PSP and ECP are examined.