Confidence in judgments based on incomplete information: An investigation using both hypothetical and real gambles

This study assessed how confidence in judgments is affected by the need to make inferences about missing information. Subjects indicated their likelihood of taking each of a series of gambles based on both probability and payoff information or only one of these sources of information. They also rated their confidence in each likelihood judgment. Subjects in the Explicit Inference condition were asked to explicitly estimate the values of missing information before making their responses while subjects in the Implicit Inference condition were not. The manner in which probability information was framed was also manipulated. Experiment 1 employed hypothetical gambles and Experiment 2 employed gambles with real money. Expressed likelihood of taking gambles was higher when probability was phrased in terms of '% chance of winning' rather than '% chance of losing', but this difference was somewhat less with real gambles than with hypothetical gambles. Confidence ratings in each experiment were actually higher on incomplete information trials than on complete information trials in the Explicit Inference condition. Results were related to the general issue of confidence in judgments.     

Effectiveness of the GOFER course in decision making for high school students

The paper describes and evaluates the GOFER course in decision making for high school students (Mann, Harmoni and Power, 1988). The course was based on principles from the conflict theory of decision making (Janis and Mann, 1977) and was designed to provide adolescents with an understanding of factors that produce good and poor decision making as well as knowledge and practice of sound decision skills. Two evaluation studies were conducted to examine effectiveness of the course. Study 1 was conducted with young adolescents (12 year olds). It found a significant difference between students trained in the course and a control group on measures of self-esteem as a decision maker, self reported decision habits and knowledge of decision strategy. Study 2 was conducted with mid-adolescents (15 year olds). It, too, found a significant difference between students who took the course and a control group on measures of self esteem as a decision maker and self-reported decision habits. It is concluded that while the evaluation study fell short of an ideal test, the GOFER course met the criteria of improving student knowledge, raising confidence in decision making and changing self reported decision habits.     

Reciprocal peer management: Improving staff instruction in a vocational training program

To test the feasibility and utility of involving peers as sources of feedback, 6 subjects, instructors in a vocational program for adults with mental retardation, participated in a staff training and management program. Subjects' teaching interactions were assessed during baseline, in-service training (on effective teaching), return-to-baseline, peer management, and follow-up phases. Peer management was introduced in multiple baseline fashion across pairs of subjects. Members of each pair were trained to monitor peer teaching, to record and graph data, to provide feedback, and to set goals with the peer. Each pair then performed these procedures on the job for several weeks, during which time 4 of the 6 subjects increased their use of effective teaching methods (over baseline). However, inconsistencies in the magnitude and durability of these increases require that the study be viewed as inconclusive, although it has heuristic value as a promising model for involving co-workers in staff management programs.     

Minimizing the number of observations: A generalization of the spearman-brown formula

A new method for determining the minimum number of observations per subject needed to achieve a specific generalizability coefficient is presented. This method, which consists of a branch-and-bound algorithm, allows for the employment of constraints specified by the investigator.     

CO-WORKER SOCIAL SUPPORT IN A WORKSITE SMOKING CONTROL PROGRAM

We evaluated the effects of adding a social support component to a worksite controlled smoking treatment program. Twenty-four participants were randomly assigned to either a controlled smoking or a controlled smoking plus partner support condition. Within a multiple baseline across behaviors design, smokers in both conditions made efforts to achieve sequential 50% reductions in: (a) nicotine content of brand smoked, (b) number of cigarettes smoked per day, and (c) percentage of each cigarette smoked. Self-monitoring records, laboratory analyses of spent cigarette butts, and carbon monoxide determinations indicated that both conditions were effective in producing significant reductions in each of the three target behaviors and in carbon monoxide levels. All participants who quit smoking during the program maintained their abstinence at a 6-month follow-up, and those who did not quit were smoking less at follow-up than they had at pretest on all dependent variables. However, few differences were observed between controlled smoking and controlled smoking plus partner support conditions either during treatment or at the 6-month follow-up. Results are discussed with regard to previous worksite studies, future directions for research on social support, and variables that may have mediated treatment outcome.     

Divine Relations as a Basis of Subjective Social Status During Later-Life: Direct and Moderating Effects

Early social theorists, including W.E.B Du Bois, recognized the importance of religion and its links to inequality, particularly in how religious vocabularies are attuned to frictions with inimical concrete social and political realities. We apply these ideas to research on the intersection of religious beliefs and economic deprivation, examining how beliefs in divine relations not only structure subjective social status (SSS), but also the association between financial stress and SSS. Analyses of data from the Caregiving, Aging, and Financial Experiences Study—a national study of Canadian older adults (N = 4010)—show that financial strain is associated with lower SSS, but better divine relations (higher support from a divine power and lower troubled relationships with a higher power) benefit SSS. Divine support also attenuates the association between financial strain and SSS. This research suggests a Du Bosian “double consciousness,” in which relations with a divine power serve as a basis for individual conceptualizations of social status that run counter to predominant narratives based on economic standing. We suggest directions for future research to explore the nuances of SSS within the religious context informed by a Du Boisian mode of inquiry.     

Voting at 16? 16–17-Year-Old Germans Vote as Correctly as Adults

Lowering the voting age from 18 to 16 years has recently been a hot topic of the political debate in many democratic countries. This study investigated whether the voting quality of 16–17-year-olds is inferior to that of the voting population. Shortly before the 2021 German federal election, two samples, representative for age and gender, indicated personal preferences about various political issues and weighted them according to importance, allowing for the calculation of individual expected values for political parties. Participants then indicated their voting choice. These choices were normatively correct when individuals voted for the party that best reflected their preferences, that is, the one maximizing the expected value. Results show that the voting decisions of 16–17-year-olds were as good as those by eligible voters. The study indicates that the exclusion of 16–17-year-old Germans in democratic elections cannot be justified by their lack of decision-making ability.     

内侧前额皮层-伏隔核环路在决策冲动中的作用：基于动物模型的研究

注意缺陷多动障碍(attentiondeficit/hyperactivitydisorder,ADHD)行为控制不足与决策冲动密切相关,后者受内侧前额皮层(medial prefrontal cortex, mPFC)与伏隔核(nucleus accumbens, NAc)调节。为调查ADHD决策冲动与m PFC-NAc间功能耦合的关系,研究采用ADHD模型SHR (spontaneously hypertensive rat, SHR)大鼠,结合延迟折扣任务和在体电生理,研究发现,与对照Wistar (WIS)大鼠相比, SHR大鼠对延迟大奖赏的选择百分比降低; WIS大鼠m PFC-NAc的Theta频段相干值表现为延迟选择时显著大于立即选择时、首次选择时大于连续选择时、转换试次时大于连续试次时,而SHR大鼠在上述条件均低于WIS大鼠。回归分析发现m PFC-NAc的相干差值与延迟大奖赏选择率显著正相关。结果表明m PFC-NAc间功能联系减弱是ADHD决策冲动缺陷的重要环路基础,该缺陷与其深度信息加工以及策略转换能力受损有关,扩展了ADHD决策冲动的认知和神经机制的认识。     

高中生物理和化学学科中同伴学业支持与学业情绪的关系:学习效能感的中介作用和性别的调节作用

研究发现学习效能感会受到同伴支持的影响,同时它又是影响学生学业状况的重要前因变量。根据控制价值理论,本研究通过对3329名高一和高二学生的调查,考察在物理和化学学科中,学习效能感是否会在同伴学业支持和学业情绪中起到中介作用。发现：(1)同伴学业支持和学习效能感呈显著正相关;两者与高兴学业情绪显著正相关,与厌倦学业情绪显著负相关;(2)在控制了年龄、年级、性别和地域后,学习效能感在同伴学业支持和高兴学业情绪中起部分中介作用,在同伴学业支持和厌倦学业情绪中起完全中介作用;(3)在物理学科中,性别调节了学习效能感和学业情绪的关系。本研究验证并拓展了控制价值理论,对于如何提高中学生物理和化学学习的积极情绪有借鉴意义。