“To hope was to expect”: The impact of perspective taking and forecast type on wishful thinking

When forecasting future outcomes, people tend to believe that the outcomes they want to happen are also likely to happen. Despite numerous attempts, few systematic factors have been identified that consistently and robustly reduce wishful thinking (WT) effects. Using elections and sporting event outcomes as contexts, three experiments examined whether taking the perspective of a political rival or opposing fan reduced WT effects. We also examined whether making deliberative (vs. intuitive-based) forecasts was associated with lower WT effects. Online adult samples of U.S. citizens from Mechanical Turk and U.S. college students provided their preferences and forecasts for the U.S. presidential election (Experiments 1 and 2) and a sports competition outcome (Experiment 3). Critically, some participants received perspective taking prompts immediately before providing forecasts. First, results revealed reductions in WT effects when participants engaged in perspective taking. Interestingly, this effect only emerged when intuitive-based forecasts were made first (Experiment 3). Second, intuitive-based forecasts revealed stronger evidence of WT effects. Finally, we found that perspective taking and forming forecasts deliberately promoted a shift in focus away from preferences and toward a consideration of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the entities (i.e., candidates and teams). Theoretical implications for understanding WT effects and applied implications for developing interventions are discussed.     

Perceptual biases and metacognition and their association with anomalous self experiences in first episode psychosis

Anomalous self-experiences have been described as a prerequisite for anomalous perceptual experiences. Later, these anomalous perceptual experiences may then be metacognitively appraised as distressing, maintaining these experiences and later leading to anomalous (delusional) beliefs. This model of anomalous events may potentially be driven by perceptual biases and metacognitive deficits. This cross-sectional study explored the association between perceptual biases, metacognition and anomalous self- and perceptual experiences and delusional beliefs in First Episode Psychosis (FEP) and a matched healthy control sample. Fifty-eight individuals with FEP and seventy-two healthy controls were included in the main analysis. Increased auditory perceptual biases were significantly associated with increased state and trait anomalous self-experiences, in particular alienation from surroundings and emotional numbing. No significant associations were found between metacognitive efficiency and anomalous experiences. These findings may be consistent with the minimal self-disturbance model of schizophrenia spectrum vulnerability, particularly with the hyperreflexivity concept.     

勿以恶小而为之：滑坡效应的心理机制及预防策略

滑坡效应是指个体的不道德程度有随时间推移而逐渐加剧的倾向, 即不道德行为具有反复性和渐进性。它广泛存在于个体自身层面以及人际互动过程中, 会影响个体正常社会交往, 甚至阻碍社会和谐健康发展。滑坡效应的研究方式包括实验者操纵法和自发性欺骗法, 心理机制包括道德推脱、内隐偏差、自我非人化等, 对应的干预措施包括提升预防定向动机和塑造积极的描述性社会规范。未来研究可从心理过程和生理机制的角度进一步探讨滑坡效应的适用范围、神经干预方式等。     

Children's predictions of consistency in people's actions

Past research suggests that young children are often reluctant to generalize about people's behavior. Three experiments involving 102 4-5-year-olds, 84 7-8-year-olds, and 107 adults explored the conditions under which inductive inferences about people are made. There was an age-based increase in propensity to predict consistency in psychological/intentional causal relations. Children often predicted change; people would behave differently in the future than they did in the past. Younger children limited predictions of consistency to non-psychological contexts. Older children showed some appreciation of stable motivations (e.g. traits, preferences). The results are consistent with the hypothesis that children's theories of mind emphasize situational influences, with personal influences appearing in middle-childhood.     

Sex Biases in Subject Selection: A Survey of Articles Published in American Medical Journals

This study discusses the results of a survey of 1,800 articles published in American medical journals from 1985--1996. The study finds 9% of these articles reported research that uses only male subjects to examine medical conditions that affect both sexes; the ratio of research on female to male conditions among these articles was greater than 5:1; but 76.5% of the articles reported research that includes both male and female subjects. The study also discusses evidence that sex biases against women (and men) are decreasing. This study also offers some possible psychological, institutional, medical, and economic explanations of the sex biases in medical research published in American journals, and discusses some policy implications of sex biases in medical research. The study concludes by urging others to conduct more empirical research on sex biases in medical research.     

Empiricism,probability, and knowledge of arithmetic: A preliminary defense

The topic of this paper is our knowledge of the natural numbers, and in particular, our knowledge of the basic axioms for the natural numbers, namely the Peano axioms. The thesis defended in this paper is that knowledge of these axioms may be gained by recourse to judgments of probability. While considerations of probability have come to the forefront in recent epistemology, it seems safe to say that the thesis defended here is heterodox from the vantage point of traditional philosophy of mathematics. So this paper focuses on providing a preliminary defense of this thesis, in that it focuses on responding to several objections. Some of these objections are from the classical literature, such as Frege's concern about indiscernibility and circularity (Section 2.1), while other are more recent, such as Baker's concern about the unreliability of small samplings in the setting of arithmetic (Section 2.2). Another family of objections suggests that we simply do not have access to probability assignments in the setting of arithmetic, either due to issues related to the ω-rule (Section 3.1) or to the non-computability and non-continuity of probability assignments (Section 3.2). Articulating these objections and the responses to them involves developing some non-trivial results on probability assignments (Appendix A–Appendix C), such as a forcing argument to establish the existence of continuous probability assignments that may be computably approximated (Theorem 4 Appendix B). In the concluding section, two problems for future work are discussed: developing the source of arithmetical confirmation and responding to the probabilistic liar.     

Second order inductive logic and Wilmers' principle

We extend the framework of Inductive Logic to Second Order languages and introduce Wilmers' Principle, a rational principle for probability functions on Second Order languages. We derive a representation theorem for functions satisfying this principle and investigate its relationship with the first order principles of Regularity and Super Regularity.     

Unique associations between young adult men's emotional functioning and their body dissatisfaction and disordered eating

Research on emotional functioning, body dissatisfaction, and disordered eating in males is predominated by studies of negative affect and emotion regulation. Other aspects of emotional functioning, namely emotion recognition and attentional biases toward emotional stimuli, have received little empirical attention. The present study investigated the unique associations between different aspects of men's emotional functioning and their disordered eating attitudes, muscularity dissatisfaction, and body fat dissatisfaction. Results from 132 male undergraduates showed that muscularity dissatisfaction was uniquely associated with both emotion regulation difficulties and an attentional bias toward rejecting faces. Body fat dissatisfaction was not uniquely associated with any aspect of emotional functioning. Disordered eating was uniquely associated with emotion regulation difficulties. Collectively, the results indicate differences in the patterns of associations between men's emotional functioning and their body dissatisfaction and disordered eating.     

Attentional biases to threat in social anxiety disorder: time to focus our attention elsewhere?

Background: Cognitive models propose that attentional biases to threat contribute to the maintenance of social anxiety disorder (SAD). However, the specific characteristics of such biases are still object to debate.

Objectives: The current study aimed to disentangle effects of trait and state social anxiety on attention allocation towards social stimuli.

Methods: Participants with SAD (n?=?67) and healthy controls (n?=?62) completed three visual search tasks while their eye movements were recorded. Half of the participants in each group were randomly assigned to a state anxiety induction.

Results: Contrary to our predictions, neither trait nor state social anxiety was associated with a facilitated attention to or a delayed disengagement from threat. However, participants with SAD did show reduced fixation durations for threatening stimuli, indicating an avoidance of threat. Induction of state anxiety led to an increased distractibility by threat.

Conclusions: We suggest that attention allocation in SAD is characterized by an avoidant rather than a vigilant attentional bias. Accordingly, our results contradict previous results that associate SAD with facilitated attention to threat and existing approaches to modify attentional biases, that aim to decrease attention towards threatening stimuli.     

Religious versus reflective priming and susceptibility to the conjunction fallacy

The effect of religious priming has been studied in relation to a number of variables, most extensively with prosocial behavior. The effects of priming on cognitive domains, however, are relatively understudied. The present study examined the effects of religious priming, compared with reflective and neutral priming, on the conjunction fallacy. Participants were randomly assigned to 1 of the 3 priming conditions. Priming was presented through the scrambled sentence task in which participants were required to rearrange words of a religious (e.g., pray), reflective (e.g., reason), or neutral (e.g., paper) content. The conjunction fallacy was measured by a task containing 1 problem. Results indicated that those undergoing the religious prime were significantly more likely to commit the conjunction fallacy compared with those in the reflective priming group. Situations in which reasoning is integral may benefit from knowing the immediate effects of religious versus reflective stimuli in the environment.