Robust interactive decision-analysis (RID): Behavioral results and implications

We have proposed a novel interactive procedure for performing decision analysis, called Robust Interactive Decision Analysis (RID), which permits a decision maker (DM) to voluntarily and interactively express strong (viz, sure) binary preferences for actions, partial decision functions, and full decision functions, and only imprecise probability and utility function assessments. These serve as INPUTS TO operators to prune the state probability space and decision space until an optimal choice strategy is obtained. The viability of the RID approach depends on a DM's ability to provide such information consistently and meaningfully. On a limited scale we experimentally investigate the behavioral implications of the RID method in order to ascertain its potential operational feasibility and viability. More specifically, we examine whether a DM can (1) express strong preferences between pairs of vectors of unconditional and conditional payoffs or utilities consistently; (2) provide imprecise (ordinal and interval) state probabilities that are individually as well as mutually consistent with the state probabilities imputed from the expressed strong preferences. The results show that a DM can provide strong individually and mutually consistent preference and ordinal probability information. Moreover, most individuals also appear to be able to provide interval probabilities that are individually and mutually consistent with their strong preference inputs. However, the several violations observed, our small sample size, and the limited scope of our investigation suggest that further experimentation is needed to determine whether and/or how such inputs should be elicited. Overall, the results indicate that the RID method is behaviorally viable.     

Complex decision making: A longitudinal study of process and performance

Two studies using a computer-simulated, strategy-formulation game and business students were conducted using simultaneous verbal protocols. It was found that a number of information-processing and information-evaluation thought processes were significantly related to game performance. Consistent with what is known about individual decision making, the present results suggest that, for the task used in this study, individuals who engage in causal analysis perform better than those who do not. But those who focus on negative emotions, blindly repeat previously successful decisions, and engage in illogical through processes perform more poorly than those who do not. Causal replication using real managers within organizational settings, however, is needed before firm conclusions can be drawn from this research.     

Technology and the structuring of jobs: Employee satisfaction,performance, and influence

This research investigated the relationships between technology, interdependence, job characteristics, and employee satisfaction, performance, and influence. Technology was operationalized at the individual level of analysis to include the dimensions of input uncertainty, conversion uncertainty, and output uncertainty. Pooled, sequential, and reciprocal interdependence was assessed. The results indicated that input and conversion uncertainty and interdependence were strongly related to such job characteristics as autonomy, skill variety, task identity, task significance, and task feedback. While the job characteristics related positively to employee satisfaction, input and conversion uncertainty related negatively to satisfaction, thus creating a mutual suppression effect. Although the uncertainty dimensions did not relate significantly to performance, there is some evidence that this negative relationship was being suppressed by the positive relationship between job characteristics and performance. Both the job characteristics and the technology dimensions related positively to influence. Results were discussed in terms of appropriate matches between technology and job characteristics.     

Expectations,procedural justice,and alternative reactions to being deprived of a desired outcome

People often find that they do not have some positive outcome they once expected to obtain, while others around them have attained that outcome. Two experiments were conducted to assess how four possible responses to such a situation are affected by procedural justice (i.e., the fairness of the procedures by which the object was denied) and by one's expectations about obtaining the outcome in the future. The four possible responses examined were anger responses, achievement strivings, devaluation of the object (X), and self-deprecation. A repeated-measures analysis revealed that the dependent variables were differentially affected in Study 1, but less so in Study 2. Analyses further revealed effects of procedural justice, such that unfair procedures led to more anger, lower achievement strivings, greater devaluation of X, and (in Study 1 only) marginally less self-deprecation. Expectations had only a marginal affect on achievement strivings in Study 1, and an effect on self-deprecation in Study 2, with higher expectations leading to lower achievement strivings and less self-deprecation, respectively. Procedural justice and expectations interacted to affect subjects' derogation of the agent who deprived them (Study 1) and their devaluation of X (Study 2). Implications for future research and for theoretical development are discussed.     

Patients' perceptions of treatment for kidney failure: The impact of personal experience on population predictions

Estimates of the probability of various outcomes associated with treatment for kidney failure were made by chronic dialysis patients, dialysis patients awaiting transplant, successful transplant patients, and unsuccessful transplant patients back on dialysis. The latter two groups can be considered a natural experiment testing the impact of personal experience on population predictions. Consistent with the law of small numbers and the availability heuristic, successful transplant patients gave higher estimates of the population success rate for transplantation than unsuccessful transplant patients gave.     

The relation between classroom social status and classmate likability,compromising skill,temperament, and neighborhood social interactions

Classmate likeability, compromising skill, and temperament (n = 135) and after-school patterns of social interaction (n = 101) were examined for third through seventh grade children who were identified by a binomial probability model as popular, rejected, neglected, or average in the classroom setting. Significant effects were obtained for each type of score. Compared to the other social status groups, popular children were the best liked and rejected children were the least liked; neglected and average children fell between these two extremes. Popular children had higher compromising scores than either rejected or average children, and neglected children had higher scores than rejected children. Compared to average children, rejected children had higher attention and rhythmicity temperament scores. Finally, popular and average children had more neighborhood friends than either rejected or average children, and meglected children had more younger neighborhood friends than did average children. Results are discussed in terms of models of peer social status.     

The roles of stimulus repetition and hemispheric activation in visual half-field asymmetries

Hardyck, Tzeng, and Wang (1978, Brain and Language, 5, 56–71) hypothesized that ample repetition of a small number of stimuli is required in order to obtain VHF differences in tachistoscopic tasks. Four experiments, with varied levels of repetition, were conducted to test this hypothesis. Three experiments utilized the general task of object-picture naming and one utilized a word-naming task. Naming latencies constituted the dependent measure. The results demonstrate that for the object-naming paradigm repetition is required for RVF superiority to emerge. Repetition was found to be unnecessary for RVF superiority in the word-naming paradigm, with repetition actually reducing RVF superiority. Experiment I suggested the possibility that RVF superiority developed for the second half of the trials as a function of practice or hemispheric activation, regardless of repetition level. Subsequent experiments, better designed to assess this possibility, clearly refuted it. It was concluded that the effect of repetition depends on the processing requirements of the task. We propose that, for tasks which can be processed efficiently by one hemisphere, the effect of repetition will be to reduce VHF asymmetries; but tasks requiring substantial processing by both hemispheres will show shifts to RVF superiority as a function of repetition.     

Causal internalization of academic performance as a function of self-esteem and performance satisfaction

In the present investigation, we integrated self-theories (specifically, theories of cognitive consistency and self-esteem) with attribution theory. Our intent was to clarify the effects of different levels of self-esteem and performance satisfaction on causal internalization of academic performance. Subjects were 162 university students who attributed causality for their individual performances on a midterm examination. Attributions to four internal and four external causal sources were analyzed with a 2 × 2 (Self-Concept × Performance Satisfaction) MANOVA and with follow-up univariate F ratios. Most of the findings support the predictions based on self-esteem theory; i.e., satisfaction with performance, rather than consistency of performance with self-esteem, served as the primary influence on internalization of causality, with students internalizing satisfying outcomes more than dissatisfying outcomes. Cognitive-consistency theory and B. Weiner's (1979, Journal of Educational Psychology, 71, 3–25) attribution proposal regarding maintenance of a stable self-concept also received support, as attributions to the internal and stable causal sources of ability and general effort were a function of an interaction of self-esteem and performance satisfaction. Hence, neither self-theory adequately anticipated the effects of self-esteem and performance satisfaction on causal internalization. Rather, a consolidation of theories is needed to explain the results.