An alternative to the methodology for analysis of covariance

A general statistical model for simultaneous analysis of data from several groups is described. The model is primarily designed to be used for the analysis of covariance. The model can handle any number of covariates and criterion variables, and any number of treatment groups. Treatment effects may be assessed when the treatment groups are not randomized. In addition, the model allows for measurement errors in the criterion variables as well as in the covariates. A wide variety of hypotheses concerning the parameters of the model can be tested by means of a large sample likelihood ratio test. In particular, the usual assumptions of ANCOVA may be tested.Research reported in this paper has been partly supported by the Swedish Council for Social Science Research under project Statistical methods for analysis of longitudinal data, project director Karl G. Jöreskog, and partly by the Bank of Sweden Tercentenary Foundation under project Structural Equation Models in the Social Sciences, project director Karl G. Jöreskog.     

Probability of directional errors with disordinal (qualitative) interaction

In a factorial design with two or more factors, there is nonzero interaction when the differences among the levels of one factor vary with levels of other factors. The interaction is disordinal or qualitative with respect to a specific factor, sayA, if the difference between at least two levels ofA is positive for some and negative for some levels of the other factors. Using standard methods of analysis, there is a potentially large probability of drawing incorrect conclusions about the signs of differences in the presence of disordinal interaction. The maximum probability of such incorrect conclusions, or directional errors, is derived for two-factor designs in which the factor of interest has two levels and the number of levels of the other factor varies.     

Essential independence and likelihood-based ability estimation for polytomous items

A definition ofessential independence is proposed for sequences of polytomous items. For items satisfying the reasonable assumption that the expected amount of credit awarded increases with examinee ability, we develop a theory ofessential unidimensionality which closely parallels that of Stout. Essentially unidimensional item sequences can be shown to have a unique (up to change-of-scale) dominant underlying trait, which can be consistently estimated by a monotone transformation of the sum of the item scores. In more general polytomous-response latent trait models (with or without ordered responses), anM-estimator based upon maximum likelihood may be shown to be consistent for under essentially unidimensional violations of local independence and a variety of monotonicity/identifiability conditions. A rigorous proof of this fact is given, and the standard error of the estimator is explored. These results suggest that ability estimation methods that rely on the summation form of the log likelihood under local independence should generally be robust under essential independence, but standard errors may vary greatly from what is usually expected, depending on the degree of departure from local independence. An index of departure from local independence is also proposed.This work was supported in part by Office of Naval Research Grant N00014-87-K-0277 and National Science Foundation Grant NSF-DMS-88-02556. The author is grateful to William F. Stout for many helpful comments, and to an anonymous reviewer for raising the questions addressed in section 2. A preliminary version of section 6 appeared in the author's Ph.D. thesis.     

A look,by simulation,at the validity of some asymptotic distribution results for rotated loadings

In the last few years, a number of asymptotic results for the distribution of unrotated and rotated factor loadings have been given. This paper investigates the validity of some of these results based on simulation techniques. In particular, it looks at principal component extraction and quartimax rotation on a problem with 13 variables. The indication is that the asymptotic results are quite good.     

A note on computing Louis’ observed information matrix identity for IRT and cognitive diagnostic models

Using Louis’ formula, it is possible to obtain the observed information matrix and the corresponding large-sample standard error estimates after the expectation–maximization (EM) algorithm has converged. However, Louis’ formula is commonly de-emphasized due to its relatively complex integration representation, particularly when studying latent variable models. This paper provides a holistic overview that demonstrates how Louis’ formula can be applied efficiently to item response theory (IRT) models and other popular latent variable models, such as cognitive diagnostic models (CDMs). After presenting the algebraic components required for Louis’ formula, two real data analyses, with accompanying numerical illustrations, are presented. Next, a Monte Carlo simulation is presented to compare the computational efficiency of Louis’ formula with previously existing methods. Results from these presentations suggest that Louis’ formula should be adopted as a standard method when computing the observed information matrix for IRT models and CDMs fitted with the EM algorithm due to its computational efficiency and flexibility.     

Investigating the impact of a novel active gap metering signalization strategy on driver behavior at highway merging sections

A safe headway to the lead vehicle is important to reduce conflicts with merging vehicles from highway on-ramps. Previous research has outlined the advantage of gap metering strategies to yield sufficient space to merging vehicles and improve highway capacity during peak hours. However, prevailing gap metering systems fail to indicate the minimum required gap and leave it to the drivers’ judgment to adjust their headway. This paper proposes a new Active Gap Metering (AGM) signalization that helps outer lane drivers to adjust their headway to the lead vehicle when approaching highway ramps with incoming vehicles. This AGM signalization represents a combination of pavement markings and an innovative Variable Message Sign (VMS). The AGM system was tested alone and in combination with additional variable speed limits (VSL) in distinct environments of the Doha Expressway in the State of Qatar using a driving simulator. The driving behavior of 64 drivers was analyzed using repeated-measures ANOVA. The results showed that the AGM effectively influenced the drivers’ behavior on the right stream lane. Drivers did gradually increase the distance to the lead vehicle, which resulted in optimal headways to merging on-ramp vehicles. Most importantly, the minimum time-to-collision (TTC_min) to the merging vehicle was increased by an additional 1–1.5 s as compared to no treatment. The proposed AGM signalization can, therefore, be considered by policymakers to influence drivers’ headways at critical merging sections.     

Evidence that implementation intentions reduce drivers’ use of mobile phones while driving

Implementation intentions are IF-THEN plans that have the potential to reduce mobile phone use while driving and thus contribute towards the prevention of road traffic crashes. We tested whether an intervention, designed to promote the formation of implementation intentions, could reduce drivers’ use of mobile phones. A randomized controlled design was used. The participants (N = 136) were randomised to an implementation intention or a control condition. Self-report questionnaires were administered to all participants at both pre- and one-month post-intervention to measure the use of mobile phones while driving, goal intentions and the theoretically derived motivational pre-cursors of goal intentions (attitudes, subjective norm and perceived behavioural control). Immediately following the pre-intervention questionnaire, the participants in the implementation intention condition (n = 67) were given a volitional help sheet, which asked them to form implementation intentions by specifying target driving situations that tempted them the most to use a mobile phone and linking them with goal-directed responses that could be used to resist the temptation. The participants in the control condition (n = 69) were asked to specify target situations that tempted them the most to use a mobile phone while driving and to generally try to avoid using a mobile phone in those situations. One-month post-intervention, the participants in the implementation intention condition reported using a mobile phone less often while driving in their specified target driving situations than did the participants in the control condition. As expected, no differences were found between the conditions in the reported frequency of mobile phone use in unspecified driving situations, goal intentions or any motivational pre-cursor of goal intentions. The implementation intention intervention that was tested in this study is a potentially effective tool for reducing mobile phone use while driving in target driving situations, where behaviour-change is most needed.     

Different level automation technology acceptance: Older adult driver opinion

The increase in the number of older adult drivers in developed countries has raised safety concerns due to the decline in their sensory, motor, perceptual, and cognitive abilities which can limit their driving capabilities. Their driving safety could be enhanced by the use of modern Automated Driver Assistance Systems (ADASs) and might totally resolved by full driving automation. However, the acceptance of these technologies by older adult drivers is not yet well understood. Thus, this study investigated older adult drivers’ intention to use six ADASs and full driving automation through two questionnaires with 115 and 132 participants respectively in Rhode Island, USA. A four-dimensional model referred to as the USEA model was used for exploring older adult drivers’ technology acceptance. The USEA model included perceived usefulness, perceived safety, perceived ease of use, and perceived anxiety. Path Analysis was applied to evaluate the proposed model. The results of this study identified the important factors in older adult drivers’ intention to use ADASs and full driving automation, which could assist stakeholders in improving technologies for use by older drivers.     

Effectiveness of the compensatory strategy adopted by older drivers: Difference between professional and non-professional drivers

It has been a controversial issue for the effect of ageing population on driving safety. Apparently, drivers’ physiological and cognitive performances deteriorate with age. However, older drivers may compensate for the elevated risk by adjusting their behaviors, known as compensatory strategy. Despite the extensive research on this topic, the compensatory strategy of older professional drivers is not well understood since many studies focused on the differences in compensatory behavior between older and young drivers. Professional drivers tend to be more skillful and able to cope with the unfavorable driving environments, thus presenting a higher capability to mitigate the risk. This study attempts to examine the compensatory behavior and its safety effect amongst older professional drivers, as compared to those of older non-professional drivers, using the driving simulator approach. In the driving simulator experiment, participants were asked to follow a leading vehicle for one hour, and two sudden brake events were presented. 41 (mid-aged and older) drivers completed the driving tests. Each participant was required to complete a car-following test, either under high or low traffic flow conditions. Performance indicators include driving capability (i.e. lateral control, longitudinal control, and brake reaction time) and compensatory behavior (i.e. average speed, and time headway). Additionally, two modified traffic conflict measures: time exposed time-to-collision (TET) and time integrated time-to-collision (TIT) are applied to indicate the traffic conflict risk. The random parameter Tobit models were estimated to measure the association between conflict risk and driver attributes, and random intercept models were used to assess other driving performance indicators. Results show that despite the impaired lateral control performance and longer brake reaction time of older drivers, the likelihood of severe traffic conflict of older drivers is lower than that of mid-aged drivers. Furthermore, though both older professional and older non-professional drivers adopted longer time headway, the reduction in the risk of severe traffic conflict is more profound among the older professional drivers. Such findings suggest that older professional drivers are more capable of mitigating the possible collision risk by adopting the compensatory strategy, as compared to older non-professional drivers. This justifies the existence of compound effect by the compensatory strategy of older driver and better driving skills of professional driver. This research provides useful insights into driver training and management strategies for employers, as older drivers would become a major cohort in the transportation industry.