A note on analyzing ordered alternatives

A general method of devising stepwise multiple testing procedures with fixed experimentwise error is applied to the problem of non-parametric randomized block design with ordered alternatives. In addition, the method is applied to other models with ordered alternatives.The author wishes to thank the referees for helpful suggestions.     

Do incompatible alternatives in a testimony affect witness credibility?

The qualitative regulation of grain size allows witnesses to increase the accuracy of their reports by adding alternatives (e.g., “the robber concealed his face with a mask, with a stocking, or with a balaclava”). However, such answers may include incompatible alternatives which may make police officers and juries distrust witnesses. In four preregistered experiments, we tested the effect of information with incompatible alternatives on witness credibility. In Experiments 1a, 1b, and 1c, we presented two short testimonies, one with incompatible alternatives and another without and credibility was lower with incompatible alternatives. In Experiment 2, we told participants that witnesses could report several alternatives and the effect was reduced. We explain the effect of incompatible alternatives on credibility from participants' inferences that a witness producing an answer with incompatible alternatives is not confident in their memory and a failure to fully appreciate the advantages of adding alternatives.     

Predictable Mispredictions in the Context of Physical Activity and Sport: A Review

Theoretical models and research that aim to identify antecedents of participation in physical activities or sport can measure antecedents of physical activity behaviour through instruments that involve subjective predictions. In this article, we argue that such instruments may not reflect physical activity experiences or behaviour accurately because people are not very good predictors of future states. Additionally, we propose that mispredictions may be predictable because they are “caused” by tendencies to neglect processes related to hedonic adaptation and competing alternatives. We also suggest that it may be possible to improve measurement of antecedents through methods that focus respondents' attention on factors that cause mispredictions or through experiential sampling methods.     

Or cues knowledge of alternatives: Evidence from priming

Recent research has determined that word meanings can instantly influence the meaning and distribution of other words in the sentence. Here, we manipulated basic carrier sentences with the disjunction or linking two nouns that were either filling the same thematic role or not, and were either semantically related or not. Though previous research has shown that one word can prime a semantically related word even in a sentential context, we predicted that if or cues knowledge about contextually‐relevant alternatives, priming for semantic relatives will only obtain when those words also fill the same thematic role. These predictions were confirmed, as self‐paced reading times of the second alternative in the sentence were faster only when the two alternatives shared the same thematic role and semantic category, suggesting that disjunction words like or function similarly to verbs, which cue knowledge about expected argument structure and sense depending on sentential context. The relevance of these findings for basic reasoning phenomena (i.e., the subadditivity effect) is also discussed.     

The Impact of Analogies on Creative Concept Generation: Lessons From an In Vivo Study in Engineering Design

Research on innovation often highlights analogies from sources outside the current problem domain as a major source of novel concepts; however, the mechanisms underlying this relationship are not well understood. We analyzed the temporal interplay between far analogy use and creative concept generation in a professional design team's brainstorming conversations, investigating the hypothesis that far analogies lead directly to very novel concepts via large steps in conceptual spaces (jumps). Surprisingly, we found that concepts were more similar to their preceding concepts after far analogy use compared to baseline situations (i.e., without far analogy use). Yet far analogies increased the team's concept generation rate compared to baseline conditions. Overall, these results challenge the view that far analogies primarily lead to novel concepts via jumps in conceptual spaces and suggest alternative pathways from far analogies to novel concepts (e.g., iterative, deep exploration within a functional space).     

Learning to Design Systems

This article describes a brief overview of systems design concepts, and provides an example of the use of one very simple framework for utilizing systems design. Its purpose is to demonstrate the value of even the simplest of systems design models in clarifying the issues behind what are often perceived to be organizational conflicts. The example provided is that of a medical function within an industrial organization, but the implications apply to almost any support function or department found within a large organization.     

From Strategic Planning to Strategic Design: Reconceptualizing the Future of Strategy in Organizations

In this article I present an overview of critiques of strategic planning, focusing on their conceptualizations of the environment. I first outline the need for a more comprehensive understanding of the nature of the environment of strategy, and then outline some of the alternatives to strategic planning and their underlying bases in constructivism and the sciences of complexity. I conclude by arguing that Banathy's systems design methodology is eminently suited to the process of strategy formulation, and should be explored more deeply within this context.     

Theological Implications of Young Earth Creationism and Intelligent Design: Emerging Tendencies of Scientism and Agnosticism

Abstract

Creationism is a worldview that does not accept the undirected formation and development of life but requires intelligent (supernatural) intervention. We analyzed texts representing Young Earth creationism (YEC) and intelligent design (ID) for their theological content and implications by assessing their position in central issues of systematic theology. YEC proponents emphasize the young age of the Earth and the necessity of literal interpretation of Genesis as prerequisites for the Fall and redemption. ID accepts the geological age of the planet, but requires intervention during evolution. YEC maintained the traditional characteristics of the Christian God (omnipotence, omniscience, benevolence), while some ID authors refused to speculate on the nature of the alleged designer. YEC authors utilized reinterpretation of scientific data as evidence for creation and to legitimize their belief in the historicity of Genesis. This could be regarded a form of scientism. YEC theodicy concentrated on the Fall as the cause of evil and the eschatological resolution of suffering. In contrast, ID proponents attempted to solve theodicy by compensated benefits of, e.g., pain. ID did not take a clear stand regarding salvation and ecclesiology, but YEC authors considered the acceptance of evolutionary theory and Christian faith to be mostly inconsistent. YEC doctrine differed from major Christian denominations by accepting scientific evidence as a proof for the historicity of Genesis and showed signs of exclusivity regarding evolutionary proponents. In ID, no satisfactory theodicy could be observed and some ID theorists could be classified as agnostics because of doubting the identity of the designer and by limiting God's omnipotence and benevolence. Both YEC and ID demonized evolutionary theory and its proponents. Creationism seems to be on its way to becoming a new kind of denomination or an emerging novel religion.     

Design as a Tool for Family Evolutionary Guidance

This article begins by describing the impact of systems science on the field of marriage and family therapy, discussing that systems concepts are broadly disseminated but have become diluted. The author describes the educational program at a marriage and family therapy graduate institute where students utilize social systems design in their research projects as well as their work with clients. The article outlines the specifications of the Idealized Systems Design (ISD) teaching system, its relationship with the larger institution, as well as its purposes and systemic functions. Application of ISD to the field of marriage and family therapy is emphasized, demonstrating its use in helping facilitate individual, family, and community health as a research tool as well as a set of intervention tools for the practicing therapist.     

Dealing with Multiple Solutions in Structural Vector Autoregressive Models

Structural vector autoregressive models (VARs) hold great potential for psychological science, particularly for time series data analysis. They capture the magnitude, direction of influence, and temporal (lagged and contemporaneous) nature of relations among variables. Unified structural equation modeling (uSEM) is an optimal structural VAR instantiation, according to large-scale simulation studies, and it is implemented within an SEM framework. However, little is known about the uniqueness of uSEM results. Thus, the goal of this study was to investigate whether multiple solutions result from uSEM analysis and, if so, to demonstrate ways to select an optimal solution. This was accomplished with two simulated data sets, an empirical data set concerning children's dyadic play, and modifications to the group iterative multiple model estimation (GIMME) program, which implements uSEMs with group- and individual-level relations in a data-driven manner. Results revealed multiple solutions when there were large contemporaneous relations among variables. Results also verified several ways to select the correct solution when the complete solution set was generated, such as the use of cross-validation, maximum standardized residuals, and information criteria. This work has immediate and direct implications for the analysis of time series data and for the inferences drawn from those data concerning human behavior.