The decision to check in multialternative choices and limited sensitivity to default

Given the rapid proliferation of smartphone applications and data aggregation websites, in many situations people can use decision aids to guide their choices. For example, they may consider whether to use a navigation device to check the fastest route or whether to use a price comparison website to find the cheapest deal. In what circumstances will subjects use a costly comparison decision aid (which I refer to as “checking”) to choose for them? In six studies, I investigate the impact of the number of available alternatives and checking's attractiveness on the decision to check. While at first increasing the attractiveness of checking led to higher checking rates, a further increase in the number of available alternatives (and thus checking's attractiveness) did not increase the checking rate. Surprisingly, even when checking had a 40% higher expected value compared with not checking, the observed checking rate was below 45%, contrary to risk and ambiguity aversion predictions. Furthermore, labeling the checking alternative as the default had no impact on its choice rate. I find large individual differences in decisions to check. Surprisingly, subjects' initial decisions had high predictive power over their subsequent checking rates, even after 100 trials with full feedback. I propose two simple learning models that capture well the aggregated results.     

Test theory without an answer key

A general model is presented for homogeneous, dichotomous items when the answer key is not known a priori. The model is structurally related to the two-class latent structure model with the roles of respondents and items interchanged. For very small sets of respondents, iterative maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters can be obtained by existing methods. For other situations, new estimation methods are developed and assessed with Monte Carlo data. The answer key can be accurately reconstructed with relatively small sets of respondents. The model is useful when a researcher wants to study objectively the knowledge possessed by members of a culturally coherent group that the researcher is not a member of.This research was supported by NSF Grant No. SES-8320173 to the authors. We gratefully acknowledge comments and suggestions from John Boyd, Tarow Indow, and Kathy Maher as well as the editor and several anonymous referees.     

Setting the sales budget: An exploratory study

This article explores how the sales budget is set in a business organization. Findings from a longitudinal participant observation study revealed that the sales budget is considered of great importance to the organization as sales estimates serve as premises for planning of production and supply and new product developments. It was observed that the sales budget was based on a narrow, inner-directed perspective, almost looking away from important environmental driving forces such as competitors and customers. The findings also showed that individuals involved in the sales budgeting process behaved opportunistically, influencing the budgetary process and outcomes. Theoretical and normative implications are highlighted.     

Incorporating prior theory in covariance structure analysis: A bayesian approach

A Bayesian approach to the testing of competing covariance structures is developed. The method provides approximate posterior probablities for each model under consideration without prior specification of individual parameter distributions. The method is based on ayesian updating using cross-validated pseudo-likelihoods. Given that the observed variables are the samefor all competing models, the approximate posterior probabilities may be obtained easily from the chi square values and other known constants, using only a hand calculator. The approach is illustrated using and example which illustrates how the prior probabilities can alter the results concerning which model specification is preferred.     

Using item-specific instructional information in achievement modeling

The problem of detecting instructional sensitivity (item basis) in test items is considered. An illustration is given which shows that for tests with many biased items, traditional item bias detection schemes give a very poor assessment of bias. A new method is proposed instead. This method extends item response theory (IRT) by including item-specific auxiliary measurement information related to opportunity-to-learn. Item-specific variation in measurement relations across students with varying opportunity-to-learn is allowed for.This paper was presented at the 1987 AERA meeting in Washington, DC. This research was supported by grant OERI-G-86-003 from the Office of Educational Research and Improvement, Department of Education. The author thanks Michael Hollis and Chih-fen Kao for valuable research assistance, and appreciates valuable comments made by an anonymous reviewer.     

Observing responses maintained by conditional discriminative stimuli.

In a conditional discrimination procedure, pigeons' observing responses were analyzed to examine whether two color stimuli (blue or red), conditionally related to whether each of two line stimuli (vertical or horizontal) accompanied reinforcement or nonreinforcement, functioned as conditioned reinforcers. If a variable-interval (VI) 10-s requirement was fulfilled, an observing response produced onset of a color stimulus. A little later, a line stimulus was presented independently of responding, added to the color stimulus to form a compound stimulus. If 55 s elapsed with a response not having occurred either through 55 s or after the variable-interval 10-s had timed out, one of the color-line compound stimuli was presented independently of responding. To control for sensory reinforcement effects and for earlier entrance to the later link, a simple discrimination procedure also was conducted in which reinforcement was not correlated with the color stimuli but with the line stimuli only. As in the conditional discrimination, the observing response also could produce earlier presentation of blue or red. The observing response occurred more frequently during the conditional discrimination than during the simple discrimination. The results were related to different theoretical accounts of conditioned reinforcement, particularly the information hypothesis.     

The effect of negative stimulus presentations on observing-response rates

Theories of observing differ in predicting whether or not a signal for absence of reinforcement (S−) is capable of reinforcing observing responses. Experiments in which S− was first removed from and then restored to the procedure have yielded mixed results. The present experiments suggest that failure to control for the direct effect of presenting S− may have been responsible. Pigeons and operant procedures were used. Experiment 1 showed that presentations of S−, even when not contingent on observing, can raise the rate of an observing response that was reinforced only by presentations of a signal (S+) that accompanied a schedule of food delivery. Experiment 2 showed that this effect resulted from bursts of responding that followed offsets of S−. Experiment 3 showed that, when the presence of S− was held constant, lower rates occurred when S− was dependent on, rather than independent of, observing. These results support theories that characterize S− as incapable of reinforcing observing responses.     

A note on the computation of the second-order derivatives of the elementary symmetric functions in the rasch model

Jansen (1984) gave explicit formulas for the computation of the second-order derivatives of the elementary symmetric functions. But they are only applicable to those pairs of items which have unequal parameters. It is shown here that for equal parameters similar explicit formulas do exist, too, facilitating the application of the Newton-Raphson procedure to estimate the parameters in the Rasch model and related models according to the conditional maximum likelihood principle.The author wishes to thank the reviewers for their helpful comments on an earlier draft of this paper.     

Self-reinforcement: Impact of instructions,criterion setting,and tangible rewards

This investigation was designed to ascertain the effects of instructions, criterion setting, and the presence of tangible rewards on the self-reinforcement process. Fifty-two third- and fourth-grade subjects were assigned to one of four treatment groups: (a) stringent instructions/criterion setting/tangible reward, (b) stringent instructions/criterion setting/no tangible reward, (c) nonstringent instructions/criterion setting/tangible reward, and (d) nonstringent instructions/no tangible reward. In the stringent-instruction conditions, subjects received social reinforcement for selecting stringent performance criteria, whereas in the non-stringent-instruction conditions, social reinforcement was withheld. Subjects in the tangible-reward groups were allowed to select a prize following the successful completion of their self-selected work performance. Subjects in the no-tangible-reward groups received no prizes for their work. All subjects performed an arithmetic task in which the number of correct problems completed, number of problems attempted, and time at task served as dependent variables across five reinforcement and two extinction trials. The results suggest that the condition of stringent instructions, criterion setting, and tangible reward was more effective in producing behavior change than the other three conditions. Perceived task difficulty and previous achievement on arithmetic task performance were shown to affect criteria selected and mathematical performance. The results are discussed in light of the contributory role of instructions, criterion setting, and tangible rewards on the self-reinforcement procedure.This study is based on a doctoral dissertation submitted to the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at the University of Pittsburgh by Helen L. Evans. Dr. Russell T. Jones was the dissertation committee chairperson. It was partially funded by an American Psychological Association Minority Fellowship awarded to the first author. Special thanks are extended to the committee members, Drs. Lloyd Bond, Robert Glaser, Johnny Matson, and Samuel M. Turner, for their assistance. The authors would like to thank Thomas DeVoge, Paul Karoly, and Samuel M. Turner for reading and commenting on an early draft of this study. Portions of this paper were presented at the 1982 APA convention.