“To hope was to expect”: The impact of perspective taking and forecast type on wishful thinking

When forecasting future outcomes, people tend to believe that the outcomes they want to happen are also likely to happen. Despite numerous attempts, few systematic factors have been identified that consistently and robustly reduce wishful thinking (WT) effects. Using elections and sporting event outcomes as contexts, three experiments examined whether taking the perspective of a political rival or opposing fan reduced WT effects. We also examined whether making deliberative (vs. intuitive-based) forecasts was associated with lower WT effects. Online adult samples of U.S. citizens from Mechanical Turk and U.S. college students provided their preferences and forecasts for the U.S. presidential election (Experiments 1 and 2) and a sports competition outcome (Experiment 3). Critically, some participants received perspective taking prompts immediately before providing forecasts. First, results revealed reductions in WT effects when participants engaged in perspective taking. Interestingly, this effect only emerged when intuitive-based forecasts were made first (Experiment 3). Second, intuitive-based forecasts revealed stronger evidence of WT effects. Finally, we found that perspective taking and forming forecasts deliberately promoted a shift in focus away from preferences and toward a consideration of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the entities (i.e., candidates and teams). Theoretical implications for understanding WT effects and applied implications for developing interventions are discussed.     

Religion,Type A behavior,and health

In a study of air traffic controllers, religious differences are found in the way Type A behavior is associated with several health status indicators. Associations between the Jenkins Activity Survey (JAS) and physical illness incidence, health-promotive behavior, diastolic and systolic blood pressure, subjective distress and impulse control problems, and alcohol consumption are examined by religious attendance, religious affiliation, and change in affiliation. Findings confirm that Type A does not vary significantly by religion. However, there are several significant findings between Type A and various health indicators. Type A is associated with illness incidence, overall and more strongly in several religion, subgroups. Type A and alcohol consumption are related positively in Protestants and converts, and negatively in churchgoing Catholics. Type A is related to impulse control problems in churchgoing Protestants and to subjective distress in churchgoing Catholics. Finally, in individuals with weak or no religious ties, Type A is associated with lower blood pressure. This last finding suggests that in some people (for example, the irreligious or unchurched), the coronary-prone behavior pattern may have cardiovascular effects which are salutary in at least one respect.The authors wish to thank Dr. Kyriakos S. Markides and Laura A. Ray for their assistance with this study. Address requests for reprints to Dr. Levin at the Institute of Gerontology, 300 North Ingalls, Ann Arbor, MI 48109.     

Response latency measurements to visual cognitive tasks by normal hearing and deaf subjects

Visual cognitive differences between hearing (N = 16) and deaf (N = 32) high-school and middle-school students were studied. Visual tasks were presented on a microcomputer and response latencies were collected. Significant differences were noted between the deaf and normal groups but not between total communication deaf and oral deaf students. These differences support the hypothesis that deaf students prefer a visual cognitive strategy. Implications for educating the deaf are discussed.     

Stress,Coping and Adjustment in Victims of Sexual Assault: The role of psychological defense mechanisms

The paper considers sexual abuse within a stress and coping framework with particular emphasis on victim-initiated psychological defense mechanisms in the recovery process. Analysis of case history data from 40 adolescent victims of sexual abuse indicated that 90% used psychological defense mechanisms, particularly repression, emotional insulation and rationalisation. The paper explores the usefulness of such mechanisms from a theoretical and applied perspective and compares these Singaporean findings with earlier research conducted in the United States.     

Degree of learning,interpolated tests,and rate of forgetting

The purpose of the two experiments reported here was to observe the effects of degree of learning, interpolated tests, and retention interval, primarily on the rate of forgetting of a list of words, and secondarily on hypermnesia for those words. In the first experiment, all the subjects had one study trial on a list of 20 common words, followed by two tests of recall. Half of the subjects had further study and test trials until they had learned the words to a criterion of three correct consecutive recalls. Two days later, half of the subjects under each learning condition returned for four retention tests, and 16 days later, all the subjects returned for four tests. Experiment 2 was similar, except that all the subjects had at least three study trials followed by four recall tests on Day 1, intermediate tests were given 2 or 7 days later, and they all had final tests 14 days later. The results showed that rate of forgetting was attenuated by an additional intermediate set of tests but not by criterion learning. Hypermnesia was generally found over the tests that were given after a retention interval of 2 or more days. The best predictor of the amount of hypermnesia over a set of tests was the difference between overall cumulative recall and net recall on the first test of the set.     

Memory for metaphor by nonfluent bilinguals

The purpose of this study was to investigate memory for metaphors by nonfluent bilinguals under different orientation conditions. In Experiment 1 beginning bilinguals were asked to either (1) translate into English the figurative meanings of metaphors in the second language (L2); (2) translate into English the literal meanings of these same metaphorical sentences; (3) translate these metaphorical sentences into English-no specific instructions as how to translate given; (4) translate into English a similar list of nonmetaphorical sentences; (5) copy in L2 the list of metaphorical sentences; or (6) copy in L2 the list of nonmetaphorical sentences. Subjects' memory for these sentences was measured on a cued recall test. In Experiment 2 monolingual subjects did language tasks similar to conditions 1, 5, and 6 in Experiment 1. In both experiments, recall was best in the first condition and worst in the fifth condition. In Experiment 1 recall was also poorer in the second condition than in the other translation conditions. The implication is that the task for this condition requires subjects to process materials in a counterintuitive manner.     

Fluency versus conscious recollection in the word completion performance of amnesic patients

To examine the relative contribution of fluency and recollection to the word completion performance of amnesics, we administered a task in which patients were told specifically not to utilize previously presented words during stem completion (an Exclusion condition). This condition was contrasted with a standard word completion task in which patients were encouraged simply to complete the stem with the first word that came to mind (an Inclusion condition). Since the exclusion condition necessitated controlled respecification of the initial presentation, it was hypothesized that amnesics would be less able than controls to exclude study list items. Consistent with this hypothesis, the results indicated that the amnesics' performance, unlike that of the alcoholic controls, did not significantly differ as a function of task condition. To examine whether amnesics' conscious recollection could be enhanced, Experiment 2 presented the study list five times. The amnesics now were able to exclude a significant number of items from the study list; however, they still did so considerably less frequently than alcoholic controls. For the alcoholic controls, increasing the number of study trials had little additional effect on their exclusion performance, but it significantly enhanced their inclusion performance. Taken together, these findings suggest that for control subjects, word completion performance is likely mediated by a combination of fluency and recollection, while for amnesic patients, performance is almost exclusively based on the fluency with which an item comes to mind.