Applying prospect theory to pilot weather-related decision-making: The impact of monetary and time considerations on risk taking behaviour

One of the key findings of prospect theory is that people tend to treat potential gains differently to potential losses. Consistent with earlier findings across a range of areas, pilots were risk averse when faced with an uncertain situation involving monetary gains and risk seeking when faced with a monetary loss. Prospect theory has largely been used to explore monetary decision-making; however, “time” is potentially a more important consideration for pilots than money. For example, how much time can be flown with the current fuel onboard. It was found that pilots' decision behaviour changed when faced with a decision involving time, with pilots risk averse for both a time gain and a time loss situation. Pilots appeared to prefer to know precisely the time required for a journey, rather than take a gamble on a potential short cut. Evidence also suggests pilots were more likely to take risks in situations that they perceive they have more control over (e.g. air traffic delays) compared to dynamic weather-related events. There was some evidence to suggest pilots do not consider a decision in terms of an end state, but rather in terms of losses and gains from their current state. The final part of the study found evidence that it may be possible to predict pilot risk taking behaviour using self-report decision frames.     

THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCKEAN ABSTRACTION

In this work I argue that Descartes was not a trialist by showing that the main tenets of trialist interpretations of Descartes's theory of substance are either not supported by the text or are not sufficient for establishing the trialist interpretation.     

Factors Affecting Potential Personality Retest Improvement After Initial Failure

Attention in the personality test faking literature has been directed toward research designs in which job applicants complete a personality test, fail to get the job, and subsequently retest. This article highlights the extent to which inferences drawn from studies using the retest-after-failure research design address the extent and prevalence of applicant faking. Results from several studies using this design are reviewed, revealing an enormous range of findings. We simulate two aspects of the assessment context that can explain the discrepancy in previous results. The simulation systematically varies the weight given to personality in the assessment battery and the selection ratio to investigate their effects on personality retest scores. Results are useful for interpreting previous findings and understanding settings in which retest improvement occurs.     

Z-contrast imaging of the arrangement of Cu in precipitates in 6XXX-series aluminium alloys

High-resolution annular dark field imaging has been used to study small precipitates in the Al matrix of 6XXX-series aluminium alloys. Cu-containing columns in precipitates were imaged by atomic number contrast along a 〈100〉 matrix direction. At an under-aged condition, large, lath-shaped particles of the Cu-containing Q′-phase were observed at grain boundaries. At over-aged conditions, Q′ was the main matrix phase. In both cases the laths showed an Al {150} habit plane. A precursor phase was found, with different arrangement of Cu-rich columns from that of the Q′-phase and sharing Al {100} habit planes. Precipitates containing elements of both the Q′-phase and the precursor were found to be common. Annular dark field imaging can differentiate directly between phases. The method complements and aids interpretation of conventional high-resolution TEM images and nano beam diffraction observations. The results obtained contribute to an improved understanding of the crystallography of the precursor and details of the structural transformation taking place during the precipitation process.     

Emergence and reduction in dynamical cognitive science

This paper examines the widespread intuition that the dynamical approach to cognitive science is importantly related to emergentism about the mind. The explanatory practices adopted by dynamical cognitive science rule out some conceptions of emergence; covering law explanations require a deducibility relationship between explanans and explanandum, whereas canonical theories of emergence require the absence of such deducibility. A response to this problem - one which would save the intuition that dynamics and emergence are related - is to reconstrue the concept of emergence as a relationship between laws. I call this “nomological emergence” and comment on the extent to which dynamicists would find it acceptable. Alternatively, dynamical cognitive science might be viewed as fitting better with the kind of “functional reductionism” which has recently been developed by authors such as Jaegwon Kim. Which of these two alternatives is preferable remains an open question pending the further development of dynamical cognitive science, particularly in its “non-classical” forms.     

Cognitive Biases in Visual Pilots' Weather‐Related Decision Making

Flights into deteriorating weather conditions are a significant cause of fatalities in general aviation accidents. This study investigated whether three common cognitive heuristics (anchoring and adjustment, confirmation, outcome) could lead to cognitive biases that might adversely affect pilots' weather‐related decision making. Study 1 found that weather reports obtained before a flight affected how pilots interpreted weather cues during flights (anchoring and adjustment). Study 2 found no evidence that pilots favoured disconfirmatory evidence over confirmatory evidence when deciding which environmental cues were most useful in deciding whether to continue a flight (confirmation). Study 3 found that pilots interpreted the decisions of pilots who flew into deteriorating weather conditions more favourably when the outcome was positive than when it was negative (outcome). These findings suggest that use of these three cognitive heuristics may lead to pilots continuing to fly into deteriorating weather conditions when the safer option is to divert or turn back. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Understanding the past: Investigating the role of availability,outcome, and hindsight bias and close calls in visual pilots' weather‐related decision making

Past events, such as “close calls,” can provide valuable learning opportunities, especially in aviation, where learning from past errors could potentially help to avoid future incidents or accidents. This study investigated whether three cognitive biases (availability, outcome, and hindsight bias) could influence pilots' perceptions of past events, which in turn might influence their perception of events yet to occur. Study 1 found that pilots were influenced by the outcome of a flight when judging decision quality. Of particular interest was that pilots interpreted events that led to a close call very similarly to those that had positive outcomes, which may reinforce risky behaviour. However, although adequately powered, Study 1 found no evidence of availability bias: Exposure to one of four outcomes did not appear to influence later decisions. Study 2 found that having read a flight report, particularly if it ended in a crash, pilots consistently overestimated their likelihood of predicting the actual outcome, which may reduce any opportunity to learn. These findings suggest that two of the three cognitive biases explored in this study could influence a pilot's perception of past events in ways that may adversely affect how they make future decisions that in turn may affect flight safety.     

Newly observed microscopic planar defects on {111} in natural diamond

Abstract

Circular disc-crack-like defects randomly distributed on {111} planes have been discovered by 300kV transmission electron microscopy in diamond that had crystallized on non-faceted growth surfaces of mean orientation {100}. In a sample of ～ 100 defects, disc diameters were narrowly distributed about a mean of 1·2 μm and one in seven discs were located on a coplanar stacking fault of average diameter 2 μm. Discs totally enclosed within the specimen exhibit concentric moiré fringes covering their image areas when viewed obliquely, showing them to be dilated into thin lenticles. Internal pressures, deduced from moiré-fringe counts on six lenticles, were in the range 1·5 to 1·8 GPa.