The use of prediction data in understanding delinquency

Predicting delinquency is valuable for understanding the course of crime, factors that influence its course, and the identification of markers that signal deviant processes. In addition, prediction data are relevant for judicial and clinical decision making. This article summarizes research findings on the prediction of delinquency. In the realm of early childhood behaviors, there is consensus that aggression (especially in conjunction with hyperactivity), drug use, truancy, lying, stealing, general problem behaviors, and poor educational achievement all predict later delinquency, albeit to varying degrees, with composite prediction scales yielding the highest degree of accuracy. In addition, studies show a reasonable consensus that the following family factors also predict delinquency: poor supervision, lack of involvement by parents, poor discipline, rejection by a parent, parental criminality and aggressiveness, marital problems, parental absence, and poor parental health. Variables reflecting socialization processes predicted later delinquency as well as children's early behavior. Although studied less frequently, youngsters' association with deviant peers is also predictive of delinquency.     

Line bisecting as a predictor of personal optimism and desirability of risky behaviors.

Our goal was to test whether current hemisphere predominance is a predictor of scores on standardized measures of personal optimism and preference for risk. In two between-subject experiments, current hemisphere predominance was measured by the direction and extent of line bisecting errors. Pearson correlations and median splits of the line bisecting errors showed significantly greater personal optimism and preference for risk with left hemisphere predominance. These results support previous research in which manipulation of hemisphere predominance produced similar effects on personal optimism in normal individuals and on risk taking in lesioned and normal samples. We conclude that the association of optimism and risk with left hemisphere predominance can be observed in resting as well as in manipulated situations.     

The role of inhibition in a spreading-activation model of language production. II. The simulational perspective

This is the second part of a project aimed at establishing the role of lateral inhibition in spreading-activation models of language production. While the first part (Berg &; Schade, 1992) reviewed the psycholinguistic evidence for inhibition and established that indeed inhibition takes place, this paper addresses the issue from the implementational perspective. A series of computer simulations are reported in which spreading-activation models with or without inhibition are directly contrasted. The performance of the competing models is evaluated against two sets of criteria. On the more technical side, the “heat death” and the selection problems have to be solved. That is, the target must have a high and the nontarget units a low level of activation. Additionally, there are certain empirical effects from the production literature which may serve as test cases for deciding between the rival models. The results of the simulations indicate that only the inhibition-based model proves capable of meeting all challenges. All inhibitionless variants fail in one or more respects. It is further shown that the need for the inhibitory component increases with the size of the processing network and that one well-known production model can do without lateral inhibition only at the expense of introducing a concept which resembles inhibition in its effect but cannot replace it.     

Developmental sequences in the age of onset of disruptive child behaviors

Retrospective and prospective reports of the onset of disruptive child behaviors were analyzed in a sample of clinic-referred boys. The younger boys (ages 7–9 years), compared with the older boys (ages 10–12 years), showed the highest level of disruptive behavior and, judging from mothers' reports, had the fastest progression of onsets from less serious to more serious problem behaviors. Despite some overlap, developmental sequences in problem behavior within the domains of hyperactivity/inattention, oppositional behavior, and conduct problems were similar across the two age groups. This was also the case for developmental sequences of overt or confrontive problem behaviors and covert or concealing conduct problems. Sequences of the onset of oppositional behavior and conduct problems were validated through prospective data, based on the information from mothers, teachers, and boys themselves. The implications of the findings are discussed for the formulation of developmental pathways of behavior and the analysis of causal factors.     

Development of stepping patterns in human infants: a dynamical systems perspective

Upright locomotion has been, perhaps, the most studied of all human motor behaviors. The acquisition of this motor milestone has been of major interest to developmentalists from the motor as well as the cognitive domains. Until recently, developmentalists have chosen a nonexperimental approach, opting instead to describe the motor behaviors that precede walking, assigning them precursor status, and attributing the sequence solely to maturation of the nervous system. In this paper, I will discuss evidence that suggests that we may better understand this and other aspects of motor development by viewing them from the theoretical perspective of nonlinear and complex dynamical systems. Focus will be on the availability of a coordinated and alternating stepping pattern throughout much of the first year of life. Factors that influence the expression of and variability in this movement pattern will also be discussed. In addition, I will address the need to understand the development of control of pattern formations as well as their coordination, and I will discuss one approach that may provide some insight; that is, to study the modulations and patterns of muscle and other forces underlying limb movements.     

The utility of differentiating between mixed and pure forms of antisocial child behavior

This study examined the utility of classifying boys on the basis of a typology of antisocial behavior. A group of 195 boys, aged 10–17, was divided into four mutually exclusive groups based on their pattern of antisocial behavior. Stealing and fighting were chosen as criteria to define the four groups: (a) boys who fought but did not steal (Exclusive Fighter Group), (b) boys who stole but did not fight (Exclusive Theft Group), (c) boys who stole and fought (Versatile Antisocial Group), and (d) boys who did neither (Remaining Group). A multimethod-multirespondent study of these boys showed that (a) the Exclusive Fighter Group tended to score high on a range of overt antisocial behaviors and were relatively little involved in delinquency; (b) the Exclusive Theft Group tended to score high on some overt antisocial behaviors and were much involved in delinquency; (c) Versatile Antisocial youths scored highest among all groups on almost all overt and covert antisocial behaviors, and in terms of delinquent acts. The Versatile boys came from families with the most disturbed child-earing practices.The authors are indebted to Gerald Patterson for his inspiration and encouragement through-out the study. They acknowledge the most helpful comments they have received during earlier drafts of this paper from Drs. John Reid, Magda Stouthamer-Loeber, and Mark Weinrott.The paper was presented at the annual meeting of the American Society of Criminology, Denver, Colorado, November 10, 1983. The study has been funded by the Center for Studies in Crime and Delinquency, National Institute of Mental Health, Grants MH 32857 and MH 37940.     

A new quantitative approach to the assessment of stages of vigilance as defined by spatiotemporal EEG patterning

Electroencephalographically oriented research on vigilance needs valid measures for assessing the level of vigilance between wakefulness and sleep. When studying different psychologically, psychopathologically, and pharmacologically induced states, special attention has to be paid to minor alterations of the level of vigilance which are reflected, essentially, in topographical changes of alpha-activity (Stage A). Since vigilance is a dynamic process, brief fluctuations in the range of a few seconds must also be recorded. In our opinion existing methods of quantification do not fully meet these demands. We have, therefore, developed a relatively simple procedure which can be characterized as an attempt quantitatively to reconstruct visually, i.e., spatiotemporally defined patterns of vigilance. The usefulness of this method, which also has certain limitations, has been demonstrated in psychopharmacological studies.     

Punishment of shock-induced aggression

Squirrel monkeys were restrained in a chair equipped with a tail-shock apparatus and a pneumatic bite hose located in front of the subject's face. An aggressive response was recorded when the monkey bit the hose. Initial sessions in which no shocks were delivered produced some biting. When biting during these sessions stabilized at a near-zero level, regularly scheduled shocks were delivered to the monkey's tail, causing a consistently higher rate of biting. After several sessions under these conditions, a punishment phase was introduced in which the previous shock conditions were maintained, and every bite was followed immediately by another, more intense shock. Biting under these conditions was suppressed to a near-zero level. When the punishment contingency was removed, biting increased. With one subject, two additional bite-contingent stimuli were examined: (1) a milder shock that, when made contingent upon hose biting, also suppressed that response, and (2) a contingent tone that had no obvious suppressing or facilitating effect. Individual differences among subjects were extreme, but the effect of bite-contingent shock was consistent. Observations of the subjects during the punishment sessions indicated the existence of certain side effects that resulted from the use of punishment to suppress shock-induced aggression.