Selective hypothesis testing

A diverse set of biases that have been found to characterize judgment may be similarly mediated by a process of selective hypothesis testing. Our paper begins with a definition of selective hypothesis testing and an explanation of how and when this process leads to error. We then review a diverse and often disconnected set of findings in the person perception, judgment, cognition, attitudes, attribution, and rule discovery literatures that can be explained by this process. Finally, we examine the question of why the selective testing of hypotheses occurs. Although the psychological literature suggests that selective hypothesis testing contributes to a variety of errors, in many contexts it may be a useful and efficient strategy that leads to satisfactory judgment.     

Multiple Deescalating Requests,Statistical Information,and Compliance: A Field Experiment1

Although prior research on influence has identified numerous techniques for increasing donation rates (see e. g., Cialdini, 1988), the problem of increasing donation sizes has been neglected. We conducted a field experiment in a telemarketing fundraising context to examine the effectiveness of three influence techniques for increasing the size of donations. The results indicate that the multiple-deescalating-requests technique was effective for increasing donation sizes. However, statistical information-based techniques were ineffective. Theoretical and applied implications of the results are discussed.     

Effects of accuracy motivation and need to evaluate on mode of attitude formation and attitude–behavior consistency

This study investigates the effects of accuracy motivation and need to evaluate on online vs. memory-based attitude formation and attitude–behavior consistency. Results show that online attitude formation is more likely when accuracy motivation or the need to evaluate is high. However, cognitive load disrupts online attitude formation even when accuracy motivation is high. Additionally, attitude relevance increases the likelihood of online attitude formation, but attitude accessibility does not. Furthermore, online (vs. memory-based) attitudes are more predictive of subsequent non-hypothetical choice.     

Overestimating the Importance of the Given Information in Multiattribute Consumer Judgment

Consumer judgment often is based on incomplete or limited knowledge of the relevant attributes. We performed 3 experiments to investigate why these judgments are often insensitive to set size and why evaluations based on limited information tend to be stronger (more extreme and confident) than is warranted. The findings indicate that the importance of the given or known attributes is often overestimated, leading to evaluations that are overly extreme. The experiments also revealed important factors moderating this insensitivity to limited information. The overweighing of the given evidence was attenuated when participants were knowledgeable of the target domain. Overweighing and the formation of extreme judgments based on limited information was also diminished when participants considered their judgmental criteria prior to evaluating a target or when a comparison target described by different attributes was present.     

Consideration Set Overvaluation: When Impossibly Favorable Ratings of a Set of Brands Are Observed

Consumers often focus on the characteristics of one brand and consider insufficiently the characteristics of other brands. Singular evaluation processes often result in judgments of a focal brand that are more extreme than warranted. This research investigates the extent to which this extremity effect generalizes to a consideration set consisting of multiple brands. Three experiments show that a set of favorably regarded brands is perceived as more favorable than would be possible if the salience manipulation had no effect. In Experiment 1, participants overestimated the likelihood that the best brand in the market was included in the presented set. In Experiment 2, the average rank assigned to the brands in the presented set was inflated. Extreme judgments were observed regardless of whether the focal set of brands was offered by a specialty store with a high‐quality reputation or by a general merchandise store with a low‐quality reputation. In Experiment 3, extreme intentions to buy now from the focal store were reduced when a comparative (vs. singular) judgment task was performed, but only when the need for cognitive closure was low as opposed to high. The results suggest that singular evaluation processes lead to consideration set overvaluation regardless of which particular favorably regarded brands happen to be included in the set.     

Remembering less and inferring more: effects of time of judgment on inferences about unknown attributes

Perceivers often infer the values of unknown attributes from evaluative expectancies. In 2 experiments, inferences about unknown attributes of a target made shortly after initial processing tended to be moderate, as perceivers presumably adjusted for the lack of directly relevant evidence. However, stronger inferences were drawn with the passage of time as memory of the absence of information faded. Expertise moderated this effect, as subjects highly knowledgeable of the target domain were much less likely than low or moderate knowledge subjects to draw extreme inferences over time. Memory-based inferences about unknown attributes were also found to be held with greater confidence than inferences made shortly after stimulus presentation.     

On the automatic activation of attitudes

We hypothesized that attitudes characterized by a strong association between the attitude object and an evaluation of that object are capable of being activated from memory automatically upon mere presentation of the attitude object. We used a priming procedure to examine the extent to which the mere presentation of an attitude object would facilitate the latency with which subjects could indicate whether a subsequently presented target adjective had a positive or a negative connotation. Across three experiments, facilitation was observed on trials involving evaluatively congruent primes (attitude objects) and targets, provided that the attitude object possessed a strong evaluative association. In Experiments 1 and 2, preexperimentally strong and weak associations were identified via a measurement procedure. In Experiment 3, the strength of the object-evaluation association was manipulated. The results indicated that attitudes can be automatically activated and that the strength of the object-evaluation association determines the likelihood of such automatic activation. The implications of these findings for a variety of issues regarding attitudes--including their functional value, stability, effects on later behavior, and measurement--are discussed.     

Focus induced tunnel vision in managerial judgment and decision making: The peril and the antidote

Managers often must assess singular strategic options. Four studies of such assessments demonstrate a tunnel vision effect: Focal managerial options often are favored in an evidentially unjustifiable manner. Study 1 concerns new product development, and demonstrates that a prototype that has become focal tends to be judged overly favorably, and is chosen for launch with unwarranted enthusiasm. Study 2 shows that this tunnel vision effect generalizes to judgments and decisions about general strategy. Study 3 focuses on the information search patterns underlying the effect, and Study 4 replicates the tunnel vision effect among experienced executives, and demonstrates the utility of a debiasing procedure. Data in all of the studies implicate selective processing as the driver of the tunnel vision effect, and further understanding of how selective processing affects choice. Several alternative operationalizations of the empirically tested debiasing procedure are discussed.     

Profits and halos: The role of firm profitability information in consumer inference

Three experiments investigated the consequences of the presence of information that a manufacturing firm is profitable on consumers' judgments of the firm and the consequences for perceptions of advertising, products, and choice intention. When profitability is present in the advertising context, consumers form more favorable advertiser judgments, which drive perceptions of greater advertisement credibility, which lead to more favorable product inferences, and ultimately stronger purchase intentions. The third experiment additionally shows that profitability information interacts with a warranty to drive judgments and choice. The implication of our findings is that firms should consider highlighting their profitability to enhance advertising effectiveness.