II—Jason Stanley

ABSTRACT The central claim is that Hornsby's argument that semantic knowledge is practical knowledge is based upon a false premise. I argue, contra Hornsby, that speakers do not voice their thoughts directly. Rather, our actions of voicing our thoughts are justified by decisions we make (albeit rapidly) about what words to use. Along the way, I raise doubts about other aspects of the thesis that semantic knowledge is practical knowledge.     

“To hope was to expect”: The impact of perspective taking and forecast type on wishful thinking

When forecasting future outcomes, people tend to believe that the outcomes they want to happen are also likely to happen. Despite numerous attempts, few systematic factors have been identified that consistently and robustly reduce wishful thinking (WT) effects. Using elections and sporting event outcomes as contexts, three experiments examined whether taking the perspective of a political rival or opposing fan reduced WT effects. We also examined whether making deliberative (vs. intuitive-based) forecasts was associated with lower WT effects. Online adult samples of U.S. citizens from Mechanical Turk and U.S. college students provided their preferences and forecasts for the U.S. presidential election (Experiments 1 and 2) and a sports competition outcome (Experiment 3). Critically, some participants received perspective taking prompts immediately before providing forecasts. First, results revealed reductions in WT effects when participants engaged in perspective taking. Interestingly, this effect only emerged when intuitive-based forecasts were made first (Experiment 3). Second, intuitive-based forecasts revealed stronger evidence of WT effects. Finally, we found that perspective taking and forming forecasts deliberately promoted a shift in focus away from preferences and toward a consideration of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the entities (i.e., candidates and teams). Theoretical implications for understanding WT effects and applied implications for developing interventions are discussed.     

A Test of the Knew-It-All-Along Effect in the 1984 Presidential and Statewide Elections1

The knew-it-all-along effect is investigated by comparing pre- and post-election predictions of subjects concerning three electoral races in the November 1984 elections. The results revealed that when the outcomes of the predictions are known, subjects recall having assigned higher probabilities and percentages to the actual winners of each election, remember having more confidence in the accuracy of these percentages, and claim to have had more knowledge of the candidates than they had before the election. The results were consistent across all three elections and in both repeated-measures and between-pups designs, suggesting that the knew-it-all-along effect is a very robust one. Two underlying processes are hypothesized to account for these results: the availability heuristic and an increase in confidence explanation.     

Challenging occupational stereotypes: Women's training roadshows and guidance at school level

The views that women and girls hold about themselves contribute to the segregation of women in the labour market. Women's Training Roadshows are an example of initiatives aimed at 'cultural interruption', in that they attempt to challenge occupational stereotypes. This paper evaluates the Cardiff Women's Roadshow from the schoolgirls' perspective and discusses the implications of the findings for careers guidance at school level.     

Altering contingencies to facilitate compliance with traffic light systems

The effects of altering light pattern sequences on driver compliance at a busy, urban intersection were explored. The baseline light timing sequences resulted in only 46.8% of drivers stopping at the yellow or red lights. Using an A-B-C design, we altered light pattern sequences that increased the probability of drivers stopping at the signals to 88.8% and 98.8%. These findings indicate that traffic light contingencies have potent effects in influencing driver behaviors at busy intersections. Following completion of the study, the traffic engineer approved the permanence of the light timing pattern that increased traffic rule compliance. Accident data collected before and after the light timing changes indicated a reduction in automobile accidents.     

Work site group meetings and the effectiveness of a televised smoking cessation intervention

At the work site, smoking accounts for increased health care expenses and worker absenteeism due to smoking-related illness and reduced productivity and lost wages. Developing comprehensive and accessible smoking cessation programs at the work site is an important objective for health care professionals. In this study, employees of 43 corporations participated in a televised smoking cessation program accompanied by self-help manuals. The media component involved presenting a smoking cessation program on a network television affiliate station during the 4:30 p.m. and 10:00 p.m. news for 20 days. Employees at half the corporations also had access to semiweekly self-help group meetings. Adding self-help support groups to a program involving self-help manuals and the media reports was found to significantly increase abstinence and its maintenance over time. The implications of using the media, self-help groups, and work site locations in large-scale community-based interventions are discussed.     

Recipient's mood, relationship type, and helping

We conducted two studies to examine how a potential helper is affected by having a communal orientation toward a relationship with a potential recipient and by the potential recipient's sadness. We hypothesized that (a) having a communal orientation would increase helping and that (b) people high in communal orientation, but not others, would respond to a potential recipient's sadness by increasing helping. These hypotheses were tested in two studies. In Study 1, individual differences in communal orientation toward relationships were measured by using a new communal orientation scale reported for the first time in this article. In Study 2, manipulations were used to lead subjects to desire either a communal or an exchange relationship with another person. In both studies, subjects were exposed to a sad person or to a person in a neutral mood whom they were given a chance to help. As hypothesized, in both studies communally oriented subjects helped the other significantly more than did others. Also as hypothesized, in both studies communally oriented subjects but not others, increased helping in response to the other person's sadness although this effect reached statistical significance only in the second study.