The probability of war in then-crises problem: Modeling new alternatives to Wright's solution

In hisStudy of War, Q. Wright considered a model for the probability of warP during a period ofn crises, and proposed the equationP=1–(1–p) ⁿ , wherep is the probability of war escalating at each individual crisis. This probability measure was formally derived recently by Cioffi-Revilla (1987), using the general theory of political reliability and an interpretation of the n-crises problem as a branching process. Two new, alternate solutions are presented here, one using D. Bernoulli's St. Petersburg Paradox as an analogue, the other based on the logic of conditional probabilities. Analysis shows that, while Wright's solution is robust with regard to the general overall behavior ofp andn, some significant qualitative and quantitative differences emerge from the alternative solutions. In particular,P converges to 1 only in a special case (Wright's) and not generally.C.C.-R. acknowledges support provided by the Merriam Laboratory for Analytic Political Research, the Research Board of the University of Illinois, and grant SES-84-00877 from the U.S. National Science Foundation.     

The power within: Mass media,scientific entertainment,and the introduction of psychical research into China, 1900–1920

How did a new science initially promoted by only a few individuals eventually become a widespread cultural phenomenon practiced and known by thousands of people? Following a transnational approach, this article traces the introduction of psychical research into China during the first two decades of the 20th century. Known in the Republican period (1912–1949) as Spiritual Science (xinling kexue or xinling yanjiu), psychical research flourished between the 1920s and 1930s, playing a key role in the popularization of applied psychology and mind-cure across China. This article takes a step back from the heyday of Spiritual Science by looking at the period that immediately preceded and helped define it. Focused on wide-circulation newspapers, popular manuals, and stage performances, it teases out the ways in which Chinese popular culture translated European, American, and Japanese psychical research to local Chinese audiences in the midst of China's search for modernity. By naturalizing the reality of psychic powers, spiritual scientists blurred the boundaries between science and superstition in a period when these were posited as diametrically opposed.     

Strong Boethius’ Thesis and Consequential Implication

The paper studies the relation between systems of modal logic and systems of consequential implication, a non-material form of implication satisfying Aristotle's Thesis (p does not imply not p ) and Weak Boethius' Thesis (if p implies q, then p does not imply not q ). Definitions are given of consequential implication in terms of modal operators and of modal operators in terms of consequential implication. The modal equivalent of Strong Boethius' Thesis (that p implies q implies that p does not imply not q) is identified.     

The role of Canadian school psychologists: Perceptions of a sample from the general public

A sample of 77 subjects responded to a questionnaire designed to collect information about their perceptions of the role of school psychologists. The results indicate that overall the respondents had a fairly accurate sense of what a school psychologist does, although they overestimated the importance of psychotherapy as one of the school psychologist's functions. It is recommended that school psychologists more clearly specify their function when dealing with members of the general public.     

Individual differences in the study of human aggression

Excessive concern for simplicity has often led us to underestimate the complexity of aggression. Over the years, several scales related to aggression have been identified and validated both on adults and on children. Ultimately, two main higher order dimensions, emotional responsivity and proneness to aggression, repeatedly emerged in a series of second-order factor analysis. These dimensions are rather similar to two of the big five factors of personality: neuroticism/emotinal stability and hostility/agreeableness, respectively. Several studies corroborate the plausibility of a higher level bidimensional conceptualization of aggression that, while preserving the heuristic validity of looking for more specific constructs of aggression, can link the field of aggression to the field of personality. © 1994 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

Mental representation of prepositional compounds: evidence from Italian agrammatic patients

The processing of Prepositional compounds (typical Neo-latin noun--noun modifications where a head noun is modified by a prepositional phrase, e.g., mulino a vento, windmill) was preliminarily studied with a group of six agrammatic aphasic patients, and, in more detail, with a further agrammatic patient (MB). Omission was the most frequent error type in naming, whereas in the other tasks (repetition, reading, writing, and completion) errors were mostly substitutions of the target preposition. This happened even with fully lexicalized compound forms, i.e., those forms where the linking preposition is syntactically and semantically opaque. These findings are interpreted in terms of a dual-route theory of lexical access to morphologically complex words.     

Is the unilateral lesion of the left substantia nigra pars compacta sufficient to induce working memory impairment in rats?

Adult male Wistar rats with a substantia nigra pars compacta (SNc) lesion induced by intranigral administration of 1 micromol 1-methyl-4-phenyl-1,2,3,6-tetrahydropyridine (MPTP) were used as a model of early phase Parkinson's disease (PD). This lesion caused a partial depletion of striatal dopamine (DA). The animals were submitted to a spatial working memory version of the water maze task in which they had to find a hidden (submersed) platform using online-maintained information that the platform remains in the same place during four consecutive trials, but that it is moved to another place every training day. Left, but not right SNc-lesioned rats were impaired in finding the platform in the second trial. This result suggests that the left SNc plays a key role in spatial working memory. Control experiments ruled out the possibility that motor impairment, sensory neglect, and/or impairment in the mental representation of the contralateral spatial environment had affected performance of the SNc-lesioned rats.     

A model of childhood perceived peer harassment: analyses of the Canadian National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth Data

The authors developed a model of childhood perceived peer harassment, using several personality, peer, and familial characteristics of victims, and tested it with children 10 to 11 years old (N = 3,434) drawn from the Canadian National Survey of Children and Youth, which is a stratified random sample of 22,831 households in Canada. A 3-step analytic procedure with 3 separate subsamples of the children was used to explore psychosocial correlates of peer harassment. Results from the latent variable path analysis (comparative fit index = .90) showed that victims are likely to feel anxious and disliked by their peers. Their parents reported using high levels of control and low levels of warmth with their children and reported high levels of depression and marital conflict themselves. These results are discussed from a social-cognitive perspective.     

Students' performance in accounting: differential effect of field dependence-independence as a learning style

This study examined the differential moderating effects associated with field dependence-independence and perceptions of stress on students' performance after controlling for SAT Mathematics and Verbal scores as well as students' actual effort on homework. The average performance of 178 third-year accounting majors over three examinations was used to evaluate their understanding of financial accounting. The students also took the Group Embedded Figures Test. While the data indicate that the most significant variables were students' effort, SAT Verbal scores, and their perceptions of stress, these variables were differentially associated with students' performance depending upon whether the student was classified as a field-independent or field-dependent learner.