Frame multiplicity and policy fiascoes: Limits to explanation

The dynamics of intractability, frame multiplicity and intense controversy not only characterize policy formation struggles, as described by Schön and Rein, but also affect the evaluation of policies and government action. Policy analysts play an important part in the politics of policy evaluation. This article demonstrates that they tend to produce very different explanations for controversial, failing policies. Such differing explanations imply different causal attributions, different allocations of blame, and different lessons for future policy-making. Such differences are not random occurrences; they are embedded in the analytical frames that evaluators use to reconstruct policy processes and to explain their outcomes. It is shown that at least three deep-rooted frames can be reconstructed: fiascoes as failures of public problem solving, fiascoes as institutional imbalances, and fiascoes as system artefacts. One of the great epistemological challenges is how to deal with multiple analytical frames. The final part of the article discusses various strategies.     

Measuring voting power for dependent voters through causal models

We construct a new measure of voting power that yields reasonable measurements even if the individual votes are not cast independently. Our measure hinges on probabilities of counterfactuals, such as the probability that the outcome of a collective decision would have been yes, had a voter voted yes rather than no as she did in the real world. The probabilities of such counterfactuals are calculated on the basis of causal information, following the approach by Balke and Pearl. Opinion leaders whose votes have causal influence on other voters’ votes can have significantly more voting power under our measure. But the new measure of voting power is also sensitive to the voting rule. We show that our measure can be regarded as an average treatment effect, we provide examples in which it yields intuitively plausible results and we prove that it reduces to Banzhaf voting power in the limiting case of independent and equiprobable votes.     

Coherence arguments and cyclical moral rankings

I thank an anonymous referee of this journal for this or her helpful comments.     

Sequential Counterfactuals,Cotenability and Temporal Becoming

Philosophical Studies -     

Turbo Pascal timing routines for the IBM microcomputer family

Two Turbo Pascal (versions 3.0 and 4.0) software timers for the IBM microcomputer family are described: one with a 55-msec resolution and another with a 1-msec resolution. Both can be implemented without additional hardware requirements. The 55-msec timer makes use of the system-time-of-day clock; the 1-msec timer is a Turbo Pascal translation of the timer described by Bührer, Sparrer, and Weitkunat (1987). The logic of each timer is shown by a short demonstration program.