Improvement of Thematic Classification in Offender Profiling: Classifying Serbian Homicides Using Multiple Correspondence,Cluster, and Discriminant Function Analyses

This paper investigates thematic classification of homicides for the purpose of behavioural investigative analysis (e.g. offender profiling). Previous research has predominantly used smallest space analysis (SSA) to conceptualise and classify offences into thematic groups based on crime scene behaviour data. This paper introduces a combined approach utilising multiple correspondence analysis (MCA), cluster analysis (CA), and discriminant function analysis (DFA) to define and differentiate crime scenes into expressive or instrumental and impersonal or personal crimes. MCA is used to derive the latent structural dimensions in the crime data and produce quantitative scores for each offence along these dimensions. Two‐step CA was then utilised to classify offences. Offence dimensional scores were then used to predict cluster membership under DFA, producing cluster centroids corresponding to MCA dimensions. Centroids were plotted on the MCA correspondence map to simultaneously conceptualise crime classification and the latent structure of the Serbian crime data. Classification of offences based on MCA dimensional scores were 91.5% accurate. This MCA–CA–DFA approach may reduce some of the more subjective aspects of SSA methodology used in classification, whilst producing a product more amenable to objective and cumulative review. Implications for offender profiling research utilising SSA and this approach are discussed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing Safety Behaviors in Fear of Storms: Validation of the Storm-Related Safety Behavior Scale

With the exception of one self-report questionnaire assessing storm fear severity (Nelson et al. Journal of Psychopathology and Behavioral Assessment, 36(1), 105–114, 2014), there are few brief published assessment tools to measure the cognitive, behavioral, and physical manifestations of storm fear. A principal feature of phobic disorders is the use of safety behaviors to alleviate distress. Safety behaviors are believed to perpetuate anxiety by preventing the disconfirmation of feared outcomes (Salkovskis Behavioural Psychotherapy, 19(1), 6–19, 1991). To date, no studies have examined the use of safety behaviors in storm fear. The purpose of the current research was to develop and validate the Storm-Related Safety Behavior Scale (SRSBS; Vorstenbosch and Antony 2017), a 24-item self-report scale that measures safety behavior use in adults with a fear of storms. Two studies examined the (1) factor structure, internal consistency, validity, and test-retest reliability of the SRSBS, as well as the frequency with which specific safety behaviors were endorsed; and (2) ability of the SRSBS to differentiate between a group of adults with low and high fear of storms after exposure to a virtual thunderstorm. Factor analysis revealed that the SRSBS is best captured by one factor. Results provided preliminary evidence of convergent and discriminant validity, as well as test-retest reliability. Finally, significant group differences were found between participants with high versus low fear of storms following a virtual thunderstorm. These findings demonstrate the value of the SRSBS for assessing safety behavior use.     

A Critical Incident Technique Study of the Facilitation of Gang Entry: Perspectives of Indigenous Men Ex-Gang Members

The aim of the study was to describe incidents that facilitated gang entry among 10 Indigenous men who survived and exited from gang life in Canada’s Prairies. The critical incident technique was applied as participants responded to this question: What facilitated gang entry for you? A total of 103 incidents that facilitated gang entry for participants were sorted into 13 distinct categories. These events led to a progression of gang activity where the gang lifestyle provided validation, provided a site for dedication and learning, and generated traumatic consequences for participants’ actions. Qualitative textual data vignettes, counseling, and research recommendations are provided.     

Advancement of Criminal Profiling Methods in Faceted Multidimensional Analysis

The current study seeks to advance the faceted multidimensional scaling (termed FMDS) procedure used in much of the investigative psychology research. To this end, recent research on street robbery by Goodwill and colleagues will be utilised to illustrate the effectiveness of a facet scale method for offender profiling. Four FMDS themes of street robbery (Con, Blitz, Confrontation and Snatch) were revealed by the crossing of two underlying axial facets: the offenders' level of violence and interaction with the victim. The facet scale method, utilising offenders' axial facet scores, was compared to previous count, proportional and centroid classification methods in the prediction of offender criminal histories. Utilising logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic analyses, the axial facet scale method was found to significantly outperform the qualitatively based dominant theme classification methods that typically employ angular and radial facets for FMDS interpretation. Implications for the use of axial facet scales within FMDS analysis for offender profiling research are discussed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Psychological Cost of Restitution: Supportive Intervention with Canadian Indian Residential School Survivors

This article describes intervention with Indian residential school survivors during the Canadian government financial compensation process. This highly charged and multifaceted process requires a systemic perspective when considering context, culture, and intervention. Following a brief historical overview of the Canadian Indian residential school era, this article outlines the independent assessment process, reviews implications associated with abuse disclosure, and discusses stages of supportive intervention.     

Multidimensional Latent Classification of ‘Street Robbery’ Offences

In a recent study of personal robbery, commissioned by the Home Office in the UK, a qualitative typology of robbery offences was proposed based on the approach used by the offender to commit the crime, consisting of four approach types: Blitz, Confrontation, Con, and Snatch. Conceptual inspection of the typology reveals that these proposed types may be hypothetically demarcated as the product of two latent dimensions: interaction (between the offender and the victim) and violence (used to threaten/harm the victim). The current paper utilises crime scene information from 72 incarcerated male offenders convicted of ‘street’ robbery to test this hypothesis. Convergent statistical analysis was utilised to test the structure of Smith's typology first using multidimensional scaling (MDS) and then principal component analysis (PCA). MDS and PCA analyses provided convergent support for the existence of the four robbery styles and the latent dimensions of interaction and violence. Implications of Smith's typological structure and latent behavioural dimensions on the conceptualisation and classification of robbery offences are discussed within the existing literature on ‘street’ robbery. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Escalation from Fetish Burglaries to Sexual Violence: A Retrospective Case Study of Former Col., D. Russell Williams

Criminal history narrative studies reveal an escalation in sexual offender behaviour from non‐contact to contact offending, with an ever‐increasing likelihood of sexual violence and homicide. In particular, researchers have found that sexual offenders often have a history of committing burglaries prior to contact offences. Accordingly, researchers have suggested that burglaries may be associated with an increased likelihood of future sexual offending, particularly when they have a sexual element to them. However, to date, there has been little quantitative research focusing on the mechanisms of escalation in sexual offences. This paper seeks to study factors associated with sexual offence escalation in terms of changes in offence seriousness and frequency. Specifically, case evidence was gleaned from a series of fetish burglaries and subsequent sexual assaults and murders committed by the former Canadian Colonel David Russell Williams (RW). Cluster analysis, chi‐square, ANOVA, and regression analyses were conducted on the crime scene information of RW's 82 cases of fetish burglary. Analyses revealed a significant escalation in the frequency and seriousness of RW's fetish burglary offences prior to committing acts of sexual violence and ultimately sexual homicide. Recommendations for future research predicting escalation of sexual offending by frequency and seriousness of offending behaviour are discussed. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Visualizing the relationship among indicators for lone actor terrorist attacks: Multidimensional scaling and the TRAP‐18

This validation study analyses data from a sample of North American terrorist attackers (n = 33) and non‐attackers (n = 23) through the lens of the Terrorist Radicalization Assessment Protocol (TRAP‐18; Meloy, 2017) utilizing a multivariate statistical approach – multidimensional scaling – to visualize potential clustering (co‐occurrence) of risk factors. Rarely done in terrorism research, the results plotted in two‐dimensional space show the clustering and co‐occurrence of most of the eight proximal warning behaviors among the attackers, but not among the non‐attackers, and less of a clustering and association of distal characteristics, but their presence in both attackers and non‐attackers. These findings provide further empirical support for the rational‐theoretical model of the TRAP‐18, a structured professional judgment instrument for threat assessment of lone actor terrorists. It advances the quantitative analysis of operationally relevant and behaviorally observable indicators for use by law enforcement and counterterrorism professionals and their consultants. Findings are discussed in relation to other research on pre‐offense behaviors of lone actor terrorists, and recommendations are made for both operational use and further research.     

When is profiling possible? Offense planning and aggression as moderators in predicting offender age from victim age in stranger rape

Debate continues with regard to the possibility of inferring an offender's characteristic features from crime scene details (the process of so-called "offender profiling"). We argue that psychology generally has benefited from appreciating context in predicting behavior. In the same way, profiling would benefit from an appreciation of context in predicting characteristics. This "reverse" process is contingent on various "if...then" relationships. As one example, this paper demonstrates how profiling offender age from victim age is contingent on (i) the level of planning and (ii) the level of aggression displayed during the offense. Eighty-five stranger rape case records formed the data set. Moderated regression analysis revealed that victim age is a significant predictor of offender age only in cases where the offender has (i) shown evidence of planning the attack and/or (ii) acts in a gratuitously aggressive manner. The theoretical bases for these findings may lie in the extent to which offenders disparately plan and target victims and how extreme aggressiveness in stranger rapes may relate to a near-peer proxy for an offender's anger. The implications of the results for the processes and methods involved in offender profiling suggest that certain crime scene factors can have differential moderating effects on predictive outcomes.