JUDGMENTAL VERSUS STATISTICAL PREDICTION:

Abstract— The relative predictive accuracy of humans and statistical models has long been the subject of controversy even though models have demonstrated superior performance in many studies. We propose that relative performance depends on the amount of contextual information available and whether it is distributed symmetrically to humans and models. Given their different strengths, human and statistical predictions can be profitably combined to improve prediction.     

The Process Linking Child-Invested Contingent Self-Esteem and Conditional Regard: The Roles of Maternal Anger and its Regulation

Journal of Child and Family Studies - Parents whose self-esteem is contingent on their children’s achievements tend to exert more control over their children by displaying decreased affection...     

Production on hold: delaying vocal production enhances the production effect in free recall

The Production Effect (PE) represents superior memory for produced (read aloud) relative to non-produced (silently read) items. Another method of improving memory is taking a test on the study material – the Testing Effect. We evaluated the combined influence of both effects on free recall memory, using delayed vocal production, in which study words were vocally produced only after their disappearance. Such procedure involves an initial instant test since participants had to vocally retrieve the words (rather than read them aloud). In five experiments, participants were presented with study words that they were instructed to learn by no-production (reading silently), immediate production (reading aloud), delayed reading aloud, or delayed vocal production (instant retrieval). The results showed superior recall for delayed production over all other conditions. We suggest that the source of this superiority is the desirable difficulty induced by the addition of the initial test (retrieval effort) to the vocal production. The novel delayed production condition forms a superior mnemonic.     

When emotion does and does not impair performance: A Garner theory of the emotional Stroop effect

It takes people longer to name the ink colour of emotion or threat words than that of neutral words, the emotional Stroop effect (ESE). In three experiments with normal and patient populations, we show that the ESE is a special case of a generic attention model and effect entailed in Garner's speeded classification paradigm. Guided by the Garner model we demonstrate that task-irrelevant dimensions that differ in salience can produce the ESE and mimic it with neutral stimuli. When each word appears in a constant colour, as mandated in the correlation condition of the Garner design, the ESE is eliminated. This important result is consistent with the attention account of the ESE. We conclude that when emotion stimuli appear in a random fashion they interfere with task performance. However, when emotion stimuli are correlated with features of the ongoing task they help task performance not least due to their extreme salience.     

Auditioning the distinctiveness account: Expanding the production effect to the auditory modality reveals the superiority of writing over vocalising

The production effect (PE) documents the advantage in memory performance for words that are read aloud during study, rather than words that are read silently. Until now, the PE was examined in the visual modality, as the participants read the study words. In the present study, we extended the PE phenomenon and used the auditory modality at study. This novel methodology provides a critical test of the distinctiveness account. Accordingly, the participants heard the study words and learned them by vocal production (saying aloud) or by writing, followed by a free recall test. The use of the auditory modality yielded a memory advantage for words that were written during study over words that were vocally produced. We explain this result in light of the encoding distinctiveness account, suggesting that the PE is determined by the number of different encoding processes involved in learning, emphasising the essential role of active production.     

The Relationship between Psychological Capital,Coping with Stress,Well-Being,and Performance

This study examined coping with stress from an organizational perspective by positing a relationship between Psychological Capital (PsyCap) and coping strategies (defined as change, accepting, or withdrawal). It was hypothesized that coping strategies would mediate the relationship between PsyCap and people’s well-being and performance. Questionnaire findings from a five hundred and fifty four employees showed a significant relationship between PsyCap and coping. Coping strategy in terms of change partially mediated the relationship between PsyCap and the outcomes of well-being and performance. Coping strategy in terms of withdrawal partially mediated the relationship between PsyCap and performance. PsyCap was found to have a strong, positive, and direct correlation with well-being and performance. Well-being was not found to associate significantly with performance. These findings suggest that the central variable in the model is not coping but PsyCap. PsyCap appears to have a strong, direct, and significant effect on the dependent variables. The theoretical implications are examined and future research avenues suggested.     

Prospects behind bars: Analyzing decisions under risk in a prison population

Criminal activity often involves considerable risks. It is therefore not surprising that criminals have been speculated to differ from noncriminals in risk attitude. Yet, few data exist to support this assumption. Moreover, the psychological underpinnings of differences in risk attitude are currently little understood. We presented prisoners and controls with sets of risky decision tasks and modeled their responses using cumulative prospect theory (CPT). The two groups showed several differences. Prisoners were more risk seeking than nonprisoners in lotteries involving losses, but they were less risk seeking in lotteries involving high-probability gains. Bestfitting CPT parameters indicated a reduced sensitivity to outcomes, for both gains and losses, and a stronger loss aversion among prisoners. In addition, prisoners showed a diminished sensitivity to the probability of gains. Our results contribute to a better understanding of prisoners’ risk attitudes and the underlying mechanisms that distinguish prisoners from nonprisoners and may thus help improve interventions designed to prevent crime.     

Dysfunctional implications of narrow window theory: variability in the intuitive assessment of correlation

Narrow Window theory, suggested by Y. Kareev ten years ago, has so far focused on one central implication of the limited capacity of working memory on intuitive correlation estimation, namely, overestimation of the distal population correlation. This paper points to additional and perhaps more dramatic implications due to the large dispersion of intuitive estimates: (a) large estimation errors, possibly causing overestimation of negligible rhos, misses of strong rhos, and distorted hierarchies of the rhos between different pairs of variables; and (b) large interpersonal differences in the estimation of any given rho and highly incongruent hierarchies of estimated correlations between different pairs of variables. These implications impede both individuals' adaptation to the empirical world and communication among themselves.