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The process of making judgments and decisions requires a method for combining data. To compare the accuracy of clinical and mechanical (formal, statistical) data-combination techniques, we performed a meta-analysis on studies of human health and behavior. On average, mechanical-prediction techniques were about 10% more accurate than clinical predictions. Depending on the specific analysis, mechanical prediction substantially outperformed clinical prediction in 33%-47% of studies examined. Although clinical predictions were often as accurate as mechanical predictions, in only a few studies (6%-16%) were they substantially more accurate. Superiority for mechanical-prediction techniques was consistent, regardless of the judgment task, type of judges, judges' amounts of experience, or the types of data being combined. Clinical predictions performed relatively less well when predictors included clinical interview data. These data indicate that mechanical predictions of human behaviors are equal or superior to clinical prediction methods for a wide range of circumstances. 相似文献
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Actor and partner effects for the 2‐year longitudinal associations between marital adjustment and life satisfaction were evaluated in a population‐based sample of middle‐aged and older adults (N = 1,385 couples). Results showed that (a) higher marital adjustment at baseline predicted higher life satisfaction at follow‐up, (b) higher life satisfaction at baseline predicted higher marital adjustment at follow‐up, (c) marital adjustment more strongly predicted life satisfaction than life satisfaction predicted marital adjustment for women, and (d) higher partner marital adjustment at baseline predicted higher life satisfaction at follow‐up. Results suggest that marital adjustment and life satisfaction influence one another in a bidirectional fashion and that the direction is predominantly from marital adjustment to life satisfaction in women. 相似文献
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