“To hope was to expect”: The impact of perspective taking and forecast type on wishful thinking

When forecasting future outcomes, people tend to believe that the outcomes they want to happen are also likely to happen. Despite numerous attempts, few systematic factors have been identified that consistently and robustly reduce wishful thinking (WT) effects. Using elections and sporting event outcomes as contexts, three experiments examined whether taking the perspective of a political rival or opposing fan reduced WT effects. We also examined whether making deliberative (vs. intuitive-based) forecasts was associated with lower WT effects. Online adult samples of U.S. citizens from Mechanical Turk and U.S. college students provided their preferences and forecasts for the U.S. presidential election (Experiments 1 and 2) and a sports competition outcome (Experiment 3). Critically, some participants received perspective taking prompts immediately before providing forecasts. First, results revealed reductions in WT effects when participants engaged in perspective taking. Interestingly, this effect only emerged when intuitive-based forecasts were made first (Experiment 3). Second, intuitive-based forecasts revealed stronger evidence of WT effects. Finally, we found that perspective taking and forming forecasts deliberately promoted a shift in focus away from preferences and toward a consideration of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the entities (i.e., candidates and teams). Theoretical implications for understanding WT effects and applied implications for developing interventions are discussed.     

RELIABILITY AND FACTORIAL VALIDITY OF THE JUNIOR EYSENCK PERSONALITY QUESTIONNAIRE IN ZIMBABWE

Six-hundred and thirteen girls and 601 boys in Zimbabwe completed the Junior Eysenck Personality Questionnaire (JEPQ). The reliability of the Neuroticism (N) and Social Desirability (L) factors was acceptable but the Psychoticism (P) and Extraversion (E) factors possessed modest reliability. While the factorial validity of the P, N and L scales was acceptable, the factorial validity of the E scale was poor. L scores were significantly correlated with N and P scores among girls and boys. Whereas Zimbabwean girls reported higher P scores than did Canadian girls, Zimbabwean boys reported lower P scores than did Canadian boys. Zimbabwean girls and boys reported lower E and N and higher P scores than their Canadian counterparts. This study provides broad support for Eysenck's basic personality model, but it does not support the use of this version of the JEPQ, and especially the E scale, among Zimbabwean children.     

Moral Judgment in Extreme Social Contexts: Soldiers Who Refuse to Fight and Physicians Who Strike?1

This paper compares two examples of moral action within extreme social contexts: the refusal of Israeli reserve soldiers to perform their military service during the war in Lebanon (1982–1983), and the refusal of Israeli physicians to provide medical care during a “labor war”, that is a strike. This paper examines the cognitive developmental premise that with an increase in the actors' stage of moral development there will be a greater consistency between hypothetical and actual moral reasoning (Kohlberg, 1984). Blasi's (1983) concept of personal integrity, that is, the consistency between the actors' judgment concerning the morality of an action and the action that was actually performed, is examined as well. The findings show that the “refusing” soldiers manifested stage consistency in their action, whereas the physicians failed to justify their action in line with their moral competence. Whereas the soldiers viewed their action as highly moral, the physicians viewed their strike action as unfortunate but necessary. The motivation of the two groups of actors to act in line with their behavioral choices is discussed.     

Religion,Type A behavior,and health

In a study of air traffic controllers, religious differences are found in the way Type A behavior is associated with several health status indicators. Associations between the Jenkins Activity Survey (JAS) and physical illness incidence, health-promotive behavior, diastolic and systolic blood pressure, subjective distress and impulse control problems, and alcohol consumption are examined by religious attendance, religious affiliation, and change in affiliation. Findings confirm that Type A does not vary significantly by religion. However, there are several significant findings between Type A and various health indicators. Type A is associated with illness incidence, overall and more strongly in several religion, subgroups. Type A and alcohol consumption are related positively in Protestants and converts, and negatively in churchgoing Catholics. Type A is related to impulse control problems in churchgoing Protestants and to subjective distress in churchgoing Catholics. Finally, in individuals with weak or no religious ties, Type A is associated with lower blood pressure. This last finding suggests that in some people (for example, the irreligious or unchurched), the coronary-prone behavior pattern may have cardiovascular effects which are salutary in at least one respect.The authors wish to thank Dr. Kyriakos S. Markides and Laura A. Ray for their assistance with this study. Address requests for reprints to Dr. Levin at the Institute of Gerontology, 300 North Ingalls, Ann Arbor, MI 48109.     

Response latency measurements to visual cognitive tasks by normal hearing and deaf subjects

Visual cognitive differences between hearing (N = 16) and deaf (N = 32) high-school and middle-school students were studied. Visual tasks were presented on a microcomputer and response latencies were collected. Significant differences were noted between the deaf and normal groups but not between total communication deaf and oral deaf students. These differences support the hypothesis that deaf students prefer a visual cognitive strategy. Implications for educating the deaf are discussed.     

PROMOTING STIMULUS CONTROL WITH TEXTUAL PROMPTS AND PERFORMANCE FEEDBACK FOR PERSONS WITH MILD DISABILITIES

We assessed whether written task analyses would serve as textual prompts for performing functional tasks by persons with mild disabilities. Several variables that could influence the effectiveness of textual prompts to promote stimulus control were examined across four groups. A consistent finding was that written specific task analyses combined with end-of-trial performance feedback were effective for promoting the acquisition and generalization of several tasks. Performance transferred immediately to natural discriminative stimuli when the written task analyses and feedback were withdrawn for most tasks and participants. For 2 participants, transfer of stimulus control was accomplished by prompt fading, using individualized written task analyses either with or without performance feedback (Group 1). When feedback was not provided, the effectiveness of written specific task analyses was inconsistent across groups. In contrast to the controlling effects of written specific task analyses, written generic task analyses, which specified only major task outcomes, when combined with performance feedback (Group 1) did not control responding. Overall, this research demonstrated the effectiveness of written specific task analyses and performance feedback to promote stimulus control for persons with mild disabilities.     

Degree of learning,interpolated tests,and rate of forgetting

The purpose of the two experiments reported here was to observe the effects of degree of learning, interpolated tests, and retention interval, primarily on the rate of forgetting of a list of words, and secondarily on hypermnesia for those words. In the first experiment, all the subjects had one study trial on a list of 20 common words, followed by two tests of recall. Half of the subjects had further study and test trials until they had learned the words to a criterion of three correct consecutive recalls. Two days later, half of the subjects under each learning condition returned for four retention tests, and 16 days later, all the subjects returned for four tests. Experiment 2 was similar, except that all the subjects had at least three study trials followed by four recall tests on Day 1, intermediate tests were given 2 or 7 days later, and they all had final tests 14 days later. The results showed that rate of forgetting was attenuated by an additional intermediate set of tests but not by criterion learning. Hypermnesia was generally found over the tests that were given after a retention interval of 2 or more days. The best predictor of the amount of hypermnesia over a set of tests was the difference between overall cumulative recall and net recall on the first test of the set.     

Goal-performance relations: The effects of initial task complexity and task practice

The current study was conducted to examine the effects of task complexity and task practice (trials) on the goal-performance relationship. Specific, difficult goal assignments were predicted to enhance performance on a complex task only in later task practice. On a simpler task, specific, difficult goal assignments were predicted to enhance performance in early task practice and to disrupt performance in later task practice. The results indicated that goals exerted the predicted effects in the simple task version but had no effect in the complex task version. Possible relationships between amount of task practice and stages of skill acquisition are discussed for tasks differing in complexity. The results are also discussed in terms of cognitive resource demands and self-regulatory processes. Implications for the effectiveness of goals in relation to task complexity and task trials are also discussed.This article is based on the senior author's dissertation at the University of Minnesota. We thank Milt Hakel, Allan Jones, and Bart Osburn for their helpful comments on earlier drafts. The authors also wish to thank Phil Ackerman and John Campbell for their insightful comments throughout the research project and other members of the dissertation committee: Rich Arvey, Mark Davisson, and Marvin Dunnette.This research was partially supported by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research Project LAMP, under the auspices of the Air Force Human Resources Laboratory (contract AFOSR-87-0234) and by a Research Initiation Grant from the University of Houston.Portions of this data were presented at the American Psychological Association Meetings, Atlanta, 1988.