No Evidence of Suicide Increase Following Terrorist Attacks in the United States: An Interrupted Time‐Series Analysis of September 11 and Oklahoma City

There is substantial evidence of detrimental psychological sequelae following disasters, including terrorist attacks. The effect of these events on extreme responses such as suicide, however, is unclear. We tested competing hypotheses about such effects by employing autoregressive integrated moving average techniques to model the impact of September 11 and the Oklahoma City bombing on monthly suicide counts at the local, state, and national level. Unlike prior studies that provided conflicting evidence, rigorous time series techniques revealed no support for an increase or decrease in suicides following these events. We conclude that while terrorist attacks produce subsequent psychological morbidity and may affect self and collective efficacy well beyond their immediate impact, these effects are not strong enough to influence levels of suicide mortality.     

Cognitive Tendencies in Analogical Forecasting1

This article attempts to identify some cognitive tendencies involved in analogical forecasting of the outcomes of medical treatment. Sixty-one medical doctors were involved in two experimental tasks concerned with prediction of the outcomes of a new medical treatment when the result with a first patient was known to be either negative or positive. The same subjects were also tested by the Short Optimism/Pessimism Questionnaire (SO/PQ) to explore relationships between life attitude and the cognitive tendencies observed in the experiment. The following findings were reported: (1) The first step of forecasting was recognized as a Data Evaluation Process (DEP), where the physician decides if the given data are sufficient to forecast the result of the same treatment with a new patient. (2) Two cognitive tendencies were identified: non-data-suggested tendency—drawing a conclusion opposite to the data given; and data-suggested tendency—drawing an optimistic conclusion when forecasting from “positive” data and a pessimistic conclusion when forecasting from “negative” data. The second tendency appeared to be dominant; however, the “positive” data created a stronger atmosphere to draw conclusions on a negative outcome. (3) It was stated that analogical forecasting involves two integrated processes, i.e., concluding and asserting. If the integration process is not complete, the subject is drawing analogical conclusions with a low confidence. (4) An optimistic life attitude appeared to be an important factor in determining analogical forecasting.     

More on millisecond timing and tachistoscope applications for the IBM PC

This paper describes a method of establishing time intervals at a precision of better than 1 msec, using QuickBASIC 4.0, for running real time experiments on an IBM PC without an 8087 coprocessor. This method is far superior to the TIMER function provided by BASIC, which has a precision of only 110 msec. Also described is an assembly language subroutine that corrects a problem in QuickBASIC 3.0 and QuickBASIC 4.0 to allow proper switching between screens in the CGA text mode for use of the PC as a tachistoscope. A tachistoscope program listing shows how to use the screen subroutine and how to establish intertriai intervals and record reaction times using the timing subroutines.     

The effects of objectives and constraints on motor control strategy in reciprocal aiming movements

The goal of this study was to examine how the kinematics of reciprocal aiming movements were affected by both the objective of the movement and the constraints operating on that movement. In Experiment 1, the objective of the movement was indirectly manipulated by capitalizing on the fact that subjects determine their own accuracy and speed limits, despite uniform task instructions to move as quickly and accurately as possible. A Fitts' type reciprocal aiming paradigm was employed, in which 69 subjects were asked to move a stylus repetitively between two spatially separated targets. Four target widths were orthogonally combined with four movement amplitudes, resulting in 16 conditions. Movements were made on an X-Y digitizing tablet. Based on the mean variable error produced on both targets, subjects were differentiated post hoc into three movement objective groups: speed, accuracy, and speed-plus-accuracy. Kinematic analyses revealed that the programming and execution of movements were systematically influenced by both the movement objective and the movement constraints. That is, movement time, peak velocity, dwell time, acceleration and deceleration time, normalized acceleration and normalized deceleration varied systematically as a function of both the speed-accuracy movement objective and the movement constraints of target size and movement distance. Moreover, the consequences of changing the constraints of the movement were affected by an interaction with the objective of the movement. In Experiment 2, the objective of the movement was directly manipulated by varying speed and/or accuracy instructions to subjects. The basic results of Experiment 1 were substantiated. Overall, the results were consistent with the view that motor control is dependent upon sensory consequences.     

Categorical and algebraic aspects of Martin-Löf Type Theory

In the paper there are introduced and discussed the concepts of an indexed category with quantifications and a higher level indexed category to present an algebraic characterization of some version of Martin-Löf Type Theory. This characterization is given by specifying an additional equational structure of those indexed categories which are models of Martin-Löf Type Theory. One can consider the presented characterization as an essentially algebraic theory of categorical models of Martin-Löf Type Theory. The paper contains a construction of an indexed category with quantifications from terms and types of the language of Martin-Löf Type Theory given in the manner of Troelstra [11]. The paper contains also an inductive definition of a valuation of these terms and types in an indexed category with quantifications.     

Teaching social skills to emotionally disturbed adolescent inpatients

A social skills training program was evaluated with emotionally disturbed adolescent inpatients. The targeted social skills required an action or reaction within six skill areas. The program was adapted from a commercially available social skills training game that features the use of response specific feedback, self-monitoring, individualized reinforcers, and individualized performance criteria. A peer conducted the baseline and posttraining sessions while the training was conducted by an adult who had no previous interactive history with the subjects. A multiple baseline design across groups demonstrated that the program increased appropriate responding in all skill areas and that these effects generalized during the posttraining peer conducted sessions. A generalization test indicated that the subjects used their newly learned skills with a novel adult outside the training setting. The program appears quite applicable to emotionally disturbed adolescents since it targets skills in a variety of areas and employs standardized procedures to enhance replicability.     

Attention and the order of items in short-term visual memory

Summary Subjects first detected a target presented at the left of fixation, and then attempted to report, in order, the first four items (numerals or shapes) in a stream of items presented to the right of fixation. At comparably difficult presentation rates, 10/s for numerals and 5/s for shapes, reports showed a mixture of correctly ordered items with items reported in a direction opposite to their order of presentation. Reports fit a three-parameter attention-gating model (AGM), which assumes that (1) after target detection, an attention gate opens briefly to allow items to enter visual short-term memory (VSTM), and (2) report order is determined by the attention each item receives in VSTM. Items presented either early or late in the stream tend to receive less attention and are thus reported as later than more central items. The fit to the AGM for both numerals and unlabelled shapes provides evidence that reports reflect order in short-term visual (rather than verbal) memory.This research was supported by USAF grant no. 84-ML-044