The use of prediction data in understanding delinquency

Predicting delinquency is valuable for understanding the course of crime, factors that influence its course, and the identification of markers that signal deviant processes. In addition, prediction data are relevant for judicial and clinical decision making. This article summarizes research findings on the prediction of delinquency. In the realm of early childhood behaviors, there is consensus that aggression (especially in conjunction with hyperactivity), drug use, truancy, lying, stealing, general problem behaviors, and poor educational achievement all predict later delinquency, albeit to varying degrees, with composite prediction scales yielding the highest degree of accuracy. In addition, studies show a reasonable consensus that the following family factors also predict delinquency: poor supervision, lack of involvement by parents, poor discipline, rejection by a parent, parental criminality and aggressiveness, marital problems, parental absence, and poor parental health. Variables reflecting socialization processes predicted later delinquency as well as children's early behavior. Although studied less frequently, youngsters' association with deviant peers is also predictive of delinquency.     

Developmental sequences in the age of onset of disruptive child behaviors

Retrospective and prospective reports of the onset of disruptive child behaviors were analyzed in a sample of clinic-referred boys. The younger boys (ages 7–9 years), compared with the older boys (ages 10–12 years), showed the highest level of disruptive behavior and, judging from mothers' reports, had the fastest progression of onsets from less serious to more serious problem behaviors. Despite some overlap, developmental sequences in problem behavior within the domains of hyperactivity/inattention, oppositional behavior, and conduct problems were similar across the two age groups. This was also the case for developmental sequences of overt or confrontive problem behaviors and covert or concealing conduct problems. Sequences of the onset of oppositional behavior and conduct problems were validated through prospective data, based on the information from mothers, teachers, and boys themselves. The implications of the findings are discussed for the formulation of developmental pathways of behavior and the analysis of causal factors.     

The utility of differentiating between mixed and pure forms of antisocial child behavior

This study examined the utility of classifying boys on the basis of a typology of antisocial behavior. A group of 195 boys, aged 10–17, was divided into four mutually exclusive groups based on their pattern of antisocial behavior. Stealing and fighting were chosen as criteria to define the four groups: (a) boys who fought but did not steal (Exclusive Fighter Group), (b) boys who stole but did not fight (Exclusive Theft Group), (c) boys who stole and fought (Versatile Antisocial Group), and (d) boys who did neither (Remaining Group). A multimethod-multirespondent study of these boys showed that (a) the Exclusive Fighter Group tended to score high on a range of overt antisocial behaviors and were relatively little involved in delinquency; (b) the Exclusive Theft Group tended to score high on some overt antisocial behaviors and were much involved in delinquency; (c) Versatile Antisocial youths scored highest among all groups on almost all overt and covert antisocial behaviors, and in terms of delinquent acts. The Versatile boys came from families with the most disturbed child-earing practices.The authors are indebted to Gerald Patterson for his inspiration and encouragement through-out the study. They acknowledge the most helpful comments they have received during earlier drafts of this paper from Drs. John Reid, Magda Stouthamer-Loeber, and Mark Weinrott.The paper was presented at the annual meeting of the American Society of Criminology, Denver, Colorado, November 10, 1983. The study has been funded by the Center for Studies in Crime and Delinquency, National Institute of Mental Health, Grants MH 32857 and MH 37940.     

Length of Group Membership, Assumed Similarity, and Opinion Certainty: The Dividend for Veteran Members

Newcomer and veteran fraternity members indicated their own attitudinal position on each of 10 issues and then estimated the positions of either prospective or full in-group members or they received no opportunity to project. All subjects then rated their certainty about their own position on each issue. As expected. both newcomers and veterans assumed greater attitudinal similarity to in-group members than to prospective members. Moreover, projection onto in-group members only increased the opinion certainty of veteran members. Their certainty correlated with the percentage of their friends who were in-group members. Newcomers' certainty increased only after projection onto the lower status recruits. Membership tenure and social identity are discussed in relation to attitudinal projection and the goals of social comparison.     

Bisecting RT with lateralized readiness potentials: Precue effects after LRP onset

Recent work has sought to use the time at which the Lateralized Readiness Potential (LRP) first develops (LRP onset) as a temporal landmark to bisect experimental effects on reaction time (RT). Many studies have found experimental effects on the time between the signal and LRP onset, but few have found effects on the time between LRP onset and RT (LRP-RT interval). The primary goal of this study was to produce an effect on the LRP-RT interval. We employed precuing, a manipulation likely to influence motor-programming processes at the end of the RT interval. Subjects performed a 4-alternative choice-RT task in which a signal prompted a button-press with the index or middle finger on the left or right hand. Precues preceded the signals and were either informative, reducing the set of response alternatives from four to two, or uninformative. Besides RT and LRP, we also measured electromyographic (EMG) activity and the P300 ERP component. RT, P300 latency, and the interval between the signal and LRP onset were all shorter with informative than uninformative precues, but the timing of EMG activity relative to RT remained the same. Most importantly, precuing affected the LRP-RT interval. Implications for bisecting RT with LRPs and the identity of processes affected by precuing are discussed.     

Effects of anxiety sensitivity on emotional response to a stress task

The purpose of this investigation was to further define the role of anxiety sensitivity, in relation to physiological arousal and the cognitive perception of anxiousness, as a determinant of anxiety. One hundred and thirty-two undergraduates at an urban university served as subjects. Two physiological measures of arousal and two cognitive measures of anxiety were used following an anxiety inducing task (mental arithmetic). The general expectation, which was supported, was that individual differences in anxiety sensitivity levels are more closely related to subjects' reported anxiousness in stressful conditions than are the actual physiological changes. Additionally, anxiety sensitivity was related to poststress levels of anxiety whereas trait anxiety was only related to pre- and postrelaxation levels of anxiety. Implications of the findings are addressed.     

Treatment of urinary urgency and excessive frequency: a case study

A 39-year-old male presenting with a 5 year history of excessive urinary frequency and urgency was treated first with scheduling of urination, use of external urinary catheter and progressive muscular relaxation and then with a urinary retention training procedure. After the first set of procedures, urinary frequency decreased, whereas urgency increased slightly. After completion of retention training, both symptoms were alleviated. Overall, urinary frequency decreased from a baseline average of 14 urinations daily to a post-treatment average of 6.5 urinations per day. Urinary urgency decreased from a baseline average of 35 urges per day to a post-treatment average of 9.3 urges per day. Gains were maintained at 3 and 5 month follow-up.     

Getting older and living up to implicit followership theories: Implications for employee psychological health and job attitudes

Age discrimination at work is a widespread destructive phenomenon that often takes subtle forms. Based on negative stereotypes about older employees, we argue that older employees often experience that they are perceived as less ideal followers than younger employees. We propose that older and younger employees do not differ in what they assume their supervisors expect of an ideal follower (implicit followership theories, IFTs). Thus, we hypothesize that older employees perceive that they compare less favorably to their supervisors' IFTs than younger employees (i.e., worse IFT-fit). This should entail lower quality of the relationship between leader and follower (leader-member-exchange, LMX), which, in turn, should have detrimental effects on employees' health (i.e., burnout) and job attitudes (i.e., job satisfaction, turnover intentions, and identification). We tested our model in a field study with 379 employees. Results differed for ideal and counter-ideal follower attributes. Concerning counter-ideal follower attributes (e.g., being incompetent), age had the proposed negative effect on psychological health and job attitudes that mediated through IFT-fit and LMX. Concerning ideal follower attributes (e.g., thinking ahead), older employees expected their supervisors not only to think less of them than of their younger colleagues, but also expected them to have less demanding IFTs—contrary to our expectations. Employee age was negatively related to psychological health and job attitudes, mediated through lower perceived IFTs, worse perceived appraisal of the actual employee and their joint effects on LMX.