Representativeness and fallacies of probability judgment

Representativeness is the name given to the heuristic people often employ when they judge the probability of a sample by how well it represents certain salient features of the population from which it was drawn. The representativeness heuristic has also been used to account for how people judge the probability that a given population is the source of some sample. The latter probability, however, depends on other factors (e.g., the population's prior probability) as well as on the sample characteristics. A review of existing evidence suggests that the ignoring of such factors, a central finding of the heuristics approach to judgment under uncertainty, is a phenomenon which is conceptually distinct from the representativeness heuristic. These factors (base rates, sample size, and predictability) do not always exert the proper influence on people's first-order probability judgments, but they are not ignored when people make second-order (i.e., confidence) judgments. Other fallacies and biases in subjective evaluations of probability are, however, direct causal results of the employment of representativeness. For example, representativeness may be applied to the wrong features. Most devastating, perhaps, is that subjective probability judgments obey a logic of representativeness judgments, even though probability ought to obey an altogether different logic. Yet although the role of representativeness judgments in probability estimation leaves a lot to be desired, it is hard to envision prediction and inference completely unaided by representativeness.     

The effects of narrative context on French verbal inflections: A developmental perspective

This experiment examines how narrative context affects French subjects' selection of past imperfective (imparfait) vs. perfective inflections with different predicate types. Adults and 10-year-old children were asked to inflect verbs presented in their written infinitive form in two conditions: (a) in isolated sentences; (b) embedded in the beginning, middle, or end of narratives. Regardless of conditions, the adults rarely used theimparfait with punctual resultative predicates. In both conditions, the frequency ofimparfait was high with durative predicates, particularly with aresultative ones, but it varied with position in the narratives, being highest at the beginning and lowest at the end. Although the children also used the imparfait frequently with durative predicates, they overgeneralized it to punctual resultative ones, regardless of conditions and of positions. These results show that adult uses of the imperfective/perfective distinction are determined by both predicate properties and grounding in narrative context. The children are less sensitive to some predicate properties than the adults and they do not differentiate imperfective/perfective aspect consistently as a function of discourse context.     

Commentary on Wolford,Taylor, and Beck: The conjunction fallacy?

AlthoughP(A&B|X) can never exceedP(A|X) (the conjunction rule), it is possible forP(X|A&B) to exceedP(X|A). Hence, people who rankA&B as more probable thanA are not necessarily violating any normative rule if the ranking is done in terms of the probability of these events to yield an eventX. Wolford, Taylor, and Beck (1990) have argued that this indeed is what happens in some problems (e.g. Tversky& Kahneman’s [1983] Linda problem). The claim made here is that the Linda problem is hard to reconcile with this interpretation; that there is little if any evidence that subjects utilize this interpretation; and that in any case, representativeness can account for all Linda problem results.     

Dimensional assessment of personality pathology in female and male juvenile delinquents

A developmental perspective implies similar personality pathology dimensions for adolescents and adults. The present study examined the applicability of a dimensional approach in incarcerated delinquent female and male juveniles using the Dimensional Assessment of Personality Pathology-Basic Questionnaire (DAPP-BQ). A sample of detained adolescents (n = 146) was compared to adolescent students (n = 98) and a healthy control group of adults (n = 82). Additionally, psychopathology was assessed in the incarcerated juveniles using the Youth Self Report (YSR). Analyses of variance revealed higher scores on personality disorder traits for juveniles compared to adult controls; the highest scores were observed in criminal juveniles. Hypothesized relationships could be confirmed within the criminal sample between the DAPP factor Emotional Dysregulation and the YSR Internalization syndrome scale, and between the DAPP factor Dissocial Behavior and the YSR Externalization syndrome scale. Moreover, gender differences in the criminal sample are discussed. Results indicate that the DAPP-BQ can assess personality disorder traits in delinquent and nondetained juveniles with sufficient group and criterion validity.     

Understanding Girls' Circle as an intervention on perceived social support, body image, self-efficacy, locus of control, and self-esteem

The Girls' Circle is a support group for adolescent girls developed by Beth Hossfeld and Giovanna Taormina as a unique program that addresses the needs of girls by focusing on increasing connections, building empathic skills, and developing resiliency. The present study evaluates the effectiveness of the Girls' Circle intervention on improving social support, body image, locus of control, self-efficacy, and self-esteem. Sixty-three girls from 9 support groups (comprising 5 to 15 girls each) across the United States completed the Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support, the Body Parts Satisfaction Scale, the Nowicki-Strickland Personal Reaction Survey, Schwarzer's General Self-Efficacy Scale, and the Rosenberg Self-Esteem scale both before and after the 10-week Girls' Circle program. Results revealed a significant increase in social support, body image, and self-efficacy after completion of the program.     

Effects of Video Modeling and Feedback on Mothers' Implementation of Peer‐to‐Peer Manding

Children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) exhibit deficits in appropriate requesting such as manding to peers. Experiment 1 used feedback and modeling to train three mothers to increase manding between three children with ASD and their typical siblings or peers. Video modeling and feedback increased the mother's correct implementation of the treatment but a causal relation was not established over the children's manding. Experiment 2 aimed to address the lack of functional control observed in the children's data using a partial component analysis. For one of the children there was a functional relation between the materials' location, which appeared to act as a motivating operation. When Sam's mother positioned the materials correctly his manding increased. These data indicated that a simple training protocol could be used to train caregivers to implement a complex social skill such as peer‐to‐peer interaction. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Complementary assessments of executive function in preterm and full-term preschoolers

Executive functions (EFs) are interrelated cognitive processes that have been studied in relation to behavior, attention, academic achievement, and developmental disorders. Studies of EF skills assessed through parent report and performance-based measures show correlations between them ranging from none to modest. Few studies have examined the relationship between EF skills measured through parent report and performance-based measures in relation to adaptive function. The present study included preschool children born preterm as a population at high risk for EF impairments. Preschool children (N = 149) completed a battery of EF tasks that assess working memory, response inhibition, idea generation, and attention shifting or cognitive flexibility. Parents reported on children’s EF and adaptive skills. Preterm children showed more parent-rated and performance-based EF impairments than did full-term children. The combined use of either parent report or performance-based measures resulted in the identification of a large number of children at risk for EF impairment, especially in the preterm group. Both parent report and performance-based EF measures were associated with children’s adaptive function. EF skills are measurable in young child'ren, and we suggest that EF skills may serve as targets for intervention to improve functional outcomes. We recommend the use of both parent report and performance-based measures to characterize children’s EF profiles and to customize treatment.